Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A406-W218
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A406-W218
Release
Date: August 14, 2008
发布日：2008年8月14日
Topic:
Crisis in Georgia and the Global Geopolitical Changes -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：格鲁吉亚战争和国际格局的变化 -- 魏京生
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Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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Crisis
in Georgia and the Global Geopolitical Changes
--
Wei Jingsheng (written on August 12, 2008, broadcasted by Radio Free Asia)
The
following is a Radio Free Asia commentary that Mr. Wei Jingsheng made on August
12, 2008 in response to the crisis in Georgia, especially the immediate
reaction from the leaders of the 5 Eastern European countries after the
Russia's invasion at the day of opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics. The major suggestion in the conclusion
is that "It is no longer important whether NATO expands eastward or
not. The important thing is that
east European countries will now form an anti-Russia alliance, to end Russia's
hegemony with assistance and support from the West. Although the negotiations may drag on and on for a while and
the Georgian people will have hardship ahead of them, the current suffering may
signal the beginning of a new era for Georgia to totally get rid of the
oppression of a big dictatorial country.
We
wish that the people of Georgia and other eastern European countries will win
their true independence and true freedom.
We also wish the people of Russia, who are under the control of Putin
and remaining KGB forces, start their march toward democracy. Russia needs to get rid of its persuasion
for its Grand-Russian chauvinism and make peace with its neighboring countries
and nationals. It may be such an
opportunity right now."
Crisis
in Georgia and the Global Geopolitical Changes
--
Wei Jingsheng
While
the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics was underway, fighting between
Russia and Georgia erupted.
Russian troops invaded into the land of Georgia, occupied Georgia's
strategically important city Gori in between its east and west, and thus
divided the Republic of Georgia into two parts.
Although
there is a cease-fire deal now, the battle is not yet over. With its troops deep into the land of
Georgia, a sovereign country, Russia is demanding the removal of Georgia's
democratically elected president.
With the support of the Georgian people, Georgia's President Mikheil
Saakashvili announced that his nation will withdraw from the Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS), which is an alliance of former Soviet republics. He also called upon other CIS member
countries, which were similarly threatened by Russia, to follow Georgia and
leave the CIS.
Now
European countries have joined a diplomatic mediation, and it appears that this
conflict could be dragged into a long drawn-out war.
Why? Let us start to find some answers by
analyzing the intentions from the both sides of the conflict.
Until
1991, once both Russia and Georgia belonged to tsarist Imperial Russia, then
The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), or Soviet Union. The dissolution of the Soviet Union led
to the declaration of independence of each of its 15 Republics, with Russia
being the previous metropolitan state and also the largest among them. Russia took a leading role in the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which formed on December 21,
1991. Because of Russia's former
KGB (Committee for State Security in the Soviet Union) and economic system, the
surviving forces of the communist party in most of the former Soviet republics
quickly seized power. One example
was the former Foreign Affairs Minister of USSR, Eduard Shevardnadze, who
became Georgia's president in 1995 and built a pro-Russia dictatorial
government.
Among
peoples in the former Soviet Republics, an antagonistic sentiment due to
decades of suppression by Soviet communism mostly evolved into ethnic
conflicts. Georgians, of course,
were not happy with the pro-Russia dictatorship. After more than a decade of struggle, through the "rose
revolution" which was partially peaceful and partially violent, the
pro-Russian government was disposed and a new, democratic, pro-western
government was established.
Naturally, Russia considers Georgia as a thorn in its side and started
to foster separatists among Georgia's minority groups, in an effort to split
Georgia and overthrow Georgia's democratic government and replace it with a new
pro-Russia regime.
From
Russia's point of view, a democratic, pro-West Georgia meant a sword of NATO
(North Atlantic Treaty Organization) at Russia's back, and the sooner the
removal of such force, the better.
From Georgia's view, the separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, its
two autonomous republics, are sharp swords on its sides from Russia. Little back off room is left for either
Russia or Georgia. This is the
case not only for Georgia, but also for several other CIS member and European
countries, where newly established democratic governments are facing Russia's
threat. Those countries have
common interests and share the same fate: as the Chinese say, with bared lips,
the teeth feel cold. That is why
when Russia invaded the Republic of Georgia, it was Poland, Ukraine and the
Baltic countries who reacted the strongest and the quickest. That is also why Russia, although
planning long ago, waited and did not strike earlier.
Unfortunately,
Georgia's young president chose the wrong time and wrongly judged the reaction
from NATO and Russia. Prematurely,
Georgia used force to attempt to reassert control over South Ossetia, which
gave a pretext for Russia to provoke a full scale invasion, and led to this
lost war. The quickness and strength in Russia's reaction were
disproportionate, far beyond what Georgia could have anticipated. On the other hand, immediately after
the Russian invasion, the sluggish and cold response from the west, the media,
the politicians, who immersed themselves in the Beijing Olympics atmosphere,
were also beyond the anticipation of the Georgian. These are the major factors leading to Georgia's big loss
and mistakes. When mediators from
the European Union showed up, the Russian troops were already close to
Georgia's capital. The political
bargaining chips were no longer in Georgia's hands. If the west fails to unite firmly against the Russia
invasion, Georgia will be dismembered, weakened, and no longer be the frontier
of the democratic countries.
However,
the situation for Russia is not very favorable either. If the Russians had achieved what
Hitler did with his blitzkrieg ("lightning war") in Poland in 1939,
quickly destroying the Georgia government before the world could react, the
west countries might have taken an appeasement policy again and give up
Georgia. But Russia did not
accomplish that. The Russian
invasion immediately drew strong resistance by east European countries, which
have a collective strength to match with Russia. The presidents of Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, and
Estonia stood with Georgian President Saakashvili in the war-torn Georgia
capital, Tbilisi, showing their strong solidarity and determination of survive
or die together in a fight against Russian invasion. Ukraine even threatened to block the returning of
Russia's Black Sea Fleet to Sevastopol.
Under such circumstances, Russian Prime Minister Putin could not make
war against all these countries.
Without
going into war, an anti-Russia "New Europe" has now formed. Fictitious friendship will no longer
exist. East European countries
will not solely depend on the support of the west that sometimes lacks enough
credibility, but will now rely on their own united force against Russia's
aggressive ambition. This is a
passive situation for Russia and not within the initial expectation of
Putin. It is no longer important
whether NATO will expand eastward or not.
The important thing is that east European countries, after being
oppressed by Russia for all this time, will now form an anti-Russia alliance,
as closely related as lips and teeth.
With the assistance and support from the West, Russia's hegemony will be
truly ended.
The
negotiations may drag on and on for a while. Georgian people will have hardship ahead of them. But, the current suffering may signal
the beginning of a new era for Georgia to totally get rid of the oppression of
a big dictatorial country.
We
wish that the people of Georgia and other eastern European countries, through
persevering resistance against invaders, win their true independence and true
freedom. We also wish the people
of Russia, who are under the control of Putin and remaining KGB forces, start
their march toward democracy.
Russia needs to get rid of its persuasion for its Grand-Russian
chauvinism and make peace with its neighboring countries and nationals. It may be such an opportunity right
now.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2008/WeiJS080812RFA-conflictGeorgiaRussia.mp3
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A406-W218
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A406-W218
Release
Date: August 14, 2008
发布日：2008年8月14日
Topic:
Crisis in Georgia and the Global Geopolitical Changes -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：格鲁吉亚战争和国际格局的变化 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2008/report2008-08/WeiJS080814RFAconflictGeorgiaRussiaA406-W218.htm
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《格鲁吉亚战争和国际格局的变化》
-- 魏京生
就在奥运会开幕的时候，俄罗斯和格鲁吉亚两国发生了战争。俄罗斯军队侵入了格鲁吉亚的领土，占领了格鲁吉亚东西方交通重镇戈里市，把格鲁吉亚一分为二。虽然暂时停火了，但战争并没有结束。俄国军队在占领格鲁吉亚领土的前提下，要求一个主权国家的民选总统下台。而受到格鲁吉亚人民支持的总统则宣布退出独联体。
并要求受到威胁的独联体国家也学格鲁吉亚的榜样，退出俄罗斯掌控的独联体。由于欧洲国家插进来调解，看来这场战争会旷日持久的拖延下去。为什么会如此呢？我们先从双方的意图开始分析。
俄罗斯和格鲁吉亚原先都属于沙俄和苏联。在苏联解体后，十五个加盟共和国先后独立。但俄国既是前宗主国又是大国，所以在后来成立的独联体中居于领导地位。大多数前加盟共和国的共产党残余势力，在俄罗斯克格勃和经济体系的扶植下，很快掌握了政权。前苏联外交部长谢瓦尔德纳泽就是这样当上了格鲁吉亚的总统。并建立了亲俄国的独裁政府。
各加盟共和国人民受苏联共产党的几十年压迫，很多反抗情绪转化成了民族矛盾。格鲁吉亚人民对亲俄国而且独裁的政权当然十分不满。酝酿了十几年后，通过一场被称为颜色革命的半和平半暴力的行动，推翻了亲俄国的独裁政府，建立了新的亲西方的民主政府。这必然被俄罗斯视为眼中钉。于是俄国也开始培植格鲁吉亚内部的少数民族，企图分裂格鲁吉亚，并一举推翻它的民主政府，重新培植亲俄国的政府。
从俄国的角度来看，民主而又亲西方的格鲁吉亚，是北约插在它后腰上的一把刀子，必欲除之而后快。从格鲁吉亚的角度来看，南奥塞梯和阿布哈兹两个自治共和国的分离主义势力，是俄罗斯插在它后腰上的两把刀子。双方都没有后退的余地。不但格鲁吉亚没有后退的余地，独联体和东欧的几个新近民主的国家，也有唇亡齿寒的担忧。所以这次俄国入侵格鲁吉亚，反应最强烈而又迅速的，是波兰、乌克兰和波罗的海沿岸国家。这也正是俄国虽然蓄谋已久，但一直不敢动手的原因。
遗憾的是，格鲁吉亚年轻的总统选择了错误的机会，错误地估计了北约和俄罗斯的反应。在条件不具备的情况下，动用武力镇压南奥塞梯的武装反叛。给了俄罗斯武装侵略格鲁吉亚的借口，招致了这场失败的战争。俄国军方反应的速度和强度，超出了格鲁吉亚的预料。正沉浸在奥运之中的西方媒体和政客们反映的迟缓和冷淡，也是他们没有预料到的。这是铸成大错的主要原因。等到欧盟派人调停的时候，俄军已打到了首都的门口。政治解决筹码已经不掌握在本国手里了。如果西方不能意志坚决团结一致的话，格鲁吉亚将被肢解、削弱，不会再成为民主国家的前哨阵地。
形势对俄罗斯并不是十分有利。如果它像1939年的希特勒吃掉波兰一样，在西方国家反应过来之前，迅速地消灭了格鲁吉亚政府，西方国家很可能重演绥靖政策，从此放弃格鲁吉亚。但俄国没有做到这一点。而且立即引起了总体实力和俄国相差无几的东欧国家的强烈抵抗。几国总统已到达战火中的第比利斯，表明与格鲁吉亚共存亡的抗俄决心。乌克兰甚至扬言要封锁俄罗斯黑海舰队返回俄国水域的通道。在这种形势之下，普京不可能同时对这几国开战。
而不开战，反俄联盟从此就行成了。虚假的友好将不复存在。东欧国家将不仅仅依靠信用不够佳的西方，而是将依靠反俄联盟自己的团结，遏制俄国的侵略野心。这是普京始料不及的被动局面。北约是否东扩，已经不那么重要了，重要的是历史上一直受俄国欺压的东欧各国，将联合成为唇齿相依的抗俄联盟。再加上西方国家的援助和支持，俄罗斯的霸权才真正地结束。
谈判可能会持久地拖延下去，格鲁吉亚人民将会有一段苦难的日子。但是，最终彻底摆脱专制大国的欺压，可能就从这段苦难的日子开始。祝愿格鲁吉亚和东欧人民坚持抵抗侵略，赢得真正的独立和自由。也祝愿在普京和克格勃残余势力控制下的俄罗斯，从这个失败开始逐步走上民主的道路，放弃大俄罗斯主义的梦想，与周边国家和民族和睦相处。这一次，也许正是这样一个机会到来了。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2008/WeiJS080812RFA-conflictGeorgiaRussia.mp3
（写于2008年8月12日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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