Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A435-W242
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A435-W242
Release
Date: January 8, 2009
发布日：2009年1月8日
Topic:
Greetings for the New Year of 2009 -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：新年祝词 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
Note:
Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese
parts of this release. If this
mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request
for special delivery to us or visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2009/report2009-01/WeiJS090108newyear2009economyA435-W242.htm which
contains identical information.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Greetings
for the New Year of 2009
--
Wei Jingsheng
Greetings
for the new year of 2009, I wish all go well with you and your family.
As
a matter of fact, this year we may have more of less than satisfactory things,
as does the Chinese Communist Party.
So I wish that all of us could turn the dissatisfactory into
satisfactory, to overcome the difficulties.
For
the wealthy people in China, the economic crisis and shrinking of net worth
will be a reality which could not have been avoided. The Chinese old saying: "Every family has a Buddhist
scripture which is hard to read" is true for everyone, including the
wealthy people. Although the
wealthy class will have enough for food and clothing, business operations will
be tough to cope with, and the days ahead will be challenging. People are likely wishing that the
banks will give out more loans, thus creating a prosperous market with the
recovery of the economy that will turn the business around for everyone.
However,
as of now, both approaches are difficult.
The release of more money by the banks will result in inflation, which
causes further devaluation of the currency. This inflation is not guaranteed to be good for export, but
will attract stronger trade protectionism and thus result in more resistance to
Chinese exports. This may have a
result of expansion of the markets which use RMB currency, but it will not be
very effective.
Why
it will not be very effective?
Because most people in the market that use RMB are average workers. The Chinese business structure will not
let workers get more salary or wages, so is will have limited effect in
expanding this market. If markets
both inside and outside China could not be expanded, and even shrink, then the
economic depression will gone farther and deeper. Then the economy will not be able to turn around, but only
get worse. So people who are
running businesses should have a full evaluation of this situation.
The
situation of the poor people will be even worse. If the Chinese government applies Keynesian economics to
save those businesses which fall into the economic crisis, then there will be
inflation. The poor people were
already struggling with their low income, and the inflation will be a frost
added to the snow. To the working
class which has its income less than the average, their life will be hard to
maintain. As of now, this is a
likely possibility because the international market has already shrunk quite a
lot and trade protectionism has being rising quietly. This means that the international market will shrink even
more.
If
the Chinese government does not expand the internal demand by the release of
cash, then tens of millions of migrant workers will not be able to find their
jobs when they return to the cities.
This will be an unbearable pressure on the Hu-Wen clique which is
already in a terrible fix politically.
If they are not retarded, they will trade inflation to expand internal
demand, in an effort to settle the employment problem of some migrant workers. The result will be that it save the
beauricrats, wealthy people and these migrant workers, but makes the other poor
people miserable. Unless there is
real progress for the political and economic system in China, there lacks a
true satisfactory solution for the ongoing problem.
Many
friends, both rich and poor, are concerned whether the international market
will be able to expand, or at least to resume to where it was a few years
ago. I could tell people
responsibly here that you should not have this kind of expectation. Historical patterns reveal that when
there is an economic crisis, especially a global one, trade protectionism will
come to play for sure. All the
countries will treat their own market as the highest priority.
I
have also gain this impression from my rounds of discussions with politicians
in both Europe and America recently.
People are all concerned of the trade balance issue, and all notice the
influence of trade deficit to the economy of their own country. Even the politicians who have been
supporting "free trade" for a long time will say: "although our
party's basic principle is free trade, but now..." so and so. This reflects that a strong trade
protectionism will be a trend which could not be stopped.
Facing
this fact, China has only one solution, which is to expand its internal demand,
to expand its internal market which has been malnourished over the last 30
years. What is the root reason for
the malnutrition of the Chinese market?
It is because the working class, which is the majority of the
population, has very low growth of income lagging behind the economic
growth. The result is that, on the
one hand Chinese economic development has been mainly depending on others'
markets; on the other hand the profit has been controlled by a very small
class, thus produced a political instability due to the extreme disparity
between the rich and the poor.
This
kind of economic policy "let some people to get rich first" has
produced the current hopeless situation both economically and politically. But the one-party dictatorial political
structure is not capable of dissolving this hopeless situation itself. Only a democratic politics which is
responsible to the people, could produce a true socialist economic policy which
takes care of the majority. A
government of the very few, will of course serve for the benefit of the very
few only.
Before
this political reform, the Chinese democracy movement has taken remedy
measures. As the Western countries
start to apply trade protectionism, we urged them to include Chinese workers'
union rights, which as part of the right of association, information openness,
and a free press into trade protection measures. We want to use these ideas to force the Chinese Communist
Party to permit workers' unionization, to increase workers' pay, and thus to
expand the internal demand and ease up the economic crisis.
For
the long term, only when there is development of the union movement will the
working class' income grow in the same face as of the economy, thus creating a
normal and reasonable economic structure.
If the Chinese market could not grow normally, and its economy is
unstable, the rich people could go bankrupt easily. So a normal and reasonable economic structure is not just
good for the poor people, but also good for the long-term benefit of the
wealthy. So mature capitalists in
the Western countries also agree to protect workers' rights and socialism. This is the common interest of the
whole society. The capitalists of
China should learn from the others and get mature. If you keep thinking of put your wealth in the safe
territory of the others, why do not you try to turn your own country into a
safe territory?
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2009/WeiJS090102forecast2009economy.mp3
(Written
and recorded on January 2, 2009.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
This
is a message from WeiJingSheng.org
The
Wei Jingsheng Foundation and the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition are
dedicated to the promotion of human rights and democratization in China. We appreciate your assistance and help
in any means. We pledge solidarity
to all who struggle for human rights and democratic governance on this
planet.
You
are welcome to use or distribute this release. However, please credit with this foundation and its website
at: www.weijingsheng.org
Although
we are unable to afford to pay royalty fees at this time, we are seeking your
contribution as well. You may send
your articles, comments and opinions to: HCP@weijingsheng.org. Please remember, only in text files,
not in attachments.
For
website issues and suggestions, you may contact our professional staff and web
master at: webmaster@Weijingsheng.org
To
find out more about us, please also visit our websites at:
www.WeiJingSheng.org
and www.ChinaLaborUnion.org
for
news and information for Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition and human rights
and democracy movement as whole, especially our Chinese Labor Union Base.
You
may contact Ciping Huang at: HCP@Weijingsheng.org or
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation office at: 1-202-543-1538 Fax: 1-202-543-1539
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation's address is:
415
East Capitol Street, SE, Suite 2, Washington, DC 20003-3810, USA
Its
postal address is:
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA
You
are receiving this message because you had previous shown your interest in
learning more about Mr. Wei Jingsheng and the Chinese Democratic Movement. To be removed from the list, simply
reply this message and use "unsubscribe" as the Subject. Please allow us a few days to process
your request.
*****************************************************************
中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A435-W242
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A435-W242
Release
Date: January 8, 2009
发布日：2009年1月8日
Topic:
Greetings for the New Year of 2009 -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：新年祝词 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2009/report2009-01/WeiJS090108newyear2009economyA435-W242.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
《新年祝词》
-- 魏京生
大家新年好！祝大家万事如意，阖家安好。
实际上今年可能大家不如意事更多，包括中共的不如意之事也会比去年更多。所以祝大家都能化不如意为如意，设法解开不如意的枷锁，把难关渡过去。
对国内的有钱人来说，经济危机、财产缩水是不可避免的现实了。各家都有本难念的经，有钱人也不例外。虽然吃穿不愁，但经营上难免左支右绌。日子肯定不如已往那么好过。大家可能都希望银行多贷款，市场更兴旺。如此则经济才能复苏，大家的生意也才能有转机。
但是看来这两点都很难。银行增发钞票就是通货膨胀，结果钞票就进一步缩水。这对出口不一定有好处，反而会引来更强烈的贸易保护主义，使出口的阻力更大。对使用人民币的市场有扩大的功能。但效果不会很大。
为什么效果不会很大?这是因为人民币市场上的大多数是工薪阶层，中国的企业结构不会让工人得到更多的工资，所以对扩大市场的作用会很有限。国内外的市场如果都不能扩大，甚至还会紧缩，那么经济萧条就肯定会继续深入发展。不但不会好转，反而会变得更糟糕。经营企业的朋友们对此应该有充分的估计。
对穷人来说就更糟糕了。如果政府用凯恩斯主义的方法救那些陷入危机的企业，那就是通货膨胀。穷人的收入本来就不高，通货膨胀对穷人来说就是雪上加霜了。特别是收入低于平均水平的工薪阶层，生活就会变得难以维持。现在看来这种可能性很大。因为国际市场已经收缩了很多，贸易保护主义又正在悄然兴起。也就是说，国际市场还会进一步收缩。
如果政府不采取增发钞票的方法扩大内需，就会有几千万返城的农民工回来以后找不到工作。这对政治上已经焦头烂额的胡温集团来说，是承受不了的压力。所以他们如果不傻，肯定会用通货膨胀扩大内需的方法，来安置一部分农民工的就业问题。结果是救了那些官僚、富人和农民工，却苦了其他的穷人。除非政治和经济的体制有真正的进步，否则很难解开这个套。
很多朋友，包括富人和穷人都关心国际市场能不能有所扩大，至少恢复到前几年的水平。我可以负责任的告诉大家，干脆别做这个梦了。从规律上看，遇到经济危机，特别是全球性的经济危机，贸易保护主义一定会抬头。所有国家都会把保护自己国家的市场当作头等大事。
我最近和欧美政治家们会谈，也得到了这个印象。就是大家都在关心对外贸易平衡的问题，都注意到了外贸逆差对本国经济的影响。就连老牌支持自由贸易的政治家都说：虽然我们党的基本信念是自由贸易，但是现在。。。如何，如何。由此可见，强烈的贸易保护主义倾向是一股不可遏止的潮流。
面对这个现实，中国只有一条出路，就是扩大内需，扩大三十年来发育不良的国内市场。国内市场发育不良的根本原因是什么呢？就是占人口大多数的工薪阶层收入增长太慢，没有和经济发展同步增长。结果是一方面形成了中国的经济发展主要依靠别人的市场；另一方面形成了利润掌握在很小的一个阶级手里，造成贫富悬殊的政治不稳定局面。
这种“让一部分人先富起来”的经济政策，使得现在的经济和政治都陷入了绝境。而这个绝境，不是一党专政的政治结构能够自我化解的。只有通过向人民负责的民主政治，才能够产生照顾大多数人的社会主义经济政策。少数人的政权当然只能为少数人的利益服务。
在没有政治改革之前，民主运动采取了补救性的措施。也就是正在努力使西方国家在采取贸易保护主义政策的同时，把中国工人组织工会的权利，也就是结社自由的权利；和信息开放，也就是新闻自由的权利等等，写进贸易保护的法案。以此强迫中共开放自治工会活动，提高工人的工资，从而扩大内需，缓和经济危机。
从长远看，只有工会运动发展了，工薪阶层的收入才可能和经济发展同步增长，也才能有一个正常合理的经济结构。如果国内市场不能正常发育，经济不稳定，富人也很容易破产。这也是富裕阶层的长远利益，而不仅仅是穷人有好处。所以西方成熟的资产阶级，也拥护保障工人的利益，也要搞社会主义。
这是社会的共同利益。中国的资产阶级也该学学人家，逐渐成熟起来。与其把财产放在别人的安全地带，不如把自己的国家搞成安全地带。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2009/WeiJS090102forecast2009economy.mp3
（写及录音于2009年1月2日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
-----------------------------------------------------------------
魏京生基金会及中国民主运动海外联席会议以推动中国的人权与民主为己任。
我们欢迎任何形式的帮助与贡献。我们愿与世界上为人权与民主而奋斗的人们一起努力。
我们希望您能够帮助我们散发我们的资料。但请标明出处与我们的网址：www.weijingsheng.org
欢迎投稿（暂无稿费）或批评建议，请寄信箱： HCP@WEIJINGSHENG.ORG
魏京生基金会地址：
415
East Capitol Street, SE, Suite 2, Washington, DC 20003-3810，USA
魏京生基金会通讯地址：
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA
电话： 1-202-543-1538 传真：1-202-543-1539
魏京生基金会网址：WWW.weijingsheng.org
中国民主运动海外联席会议及中国团结工会的网址为：www.ChinaLaborUnion.org
阁下之所以收到本信，是因为阁下以前曾表示有兴趣了解魏京生先生和中国民主运动。
倘若阁下希望不再收到类似信息，请回复本信并用 unsubscribe 作为主题(Subject)。