Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A509-W291
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A509-W291
Release
Date: November 29, 2009
发布日：2009年11月29日
Topic:
Strategic Change in the USA -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：美国战略的变化 -- 魏京生
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Strategic Change in the USA
--
Wei Jingsheng
In
the last a couple weeks, there has been non-stop criticism over US President
Obama's China visit, not just by the US media, but also by the European
media. These news media repeatedly
used words such as "weak", "empty handed", "gave up
principles", "incompetent", etc. This language reflects the average people's disappointment
in President Obama. The US parties
on both the left and right are even more disappointed. The leaders of the Democratic Party are
still trying to hold their voices.
But among the opposition party, some Republican Congressmen could not
hold their anger anymore. They
held an emergency press conference this week and invited me and some senior
scholars and activists together to criticize and discuss as why Obama's China
visit disappointed the public so much in an effort to prevent human rights
condition in China worsen.
On
the other side, reading the news from the China, one could tell that the
Chinese Communists have really had their heads turned by their success. They had never run into an obeying
adversary like this one. Even the
detailed itinerary of the US president had to be presented and approved by the
Communist regime. When the
treatment of a US president could be reduced to a "little brother"
from Africa had never happened before in history. Thus the conceited psychology of the Chinese Communist Party
inflated again, to the degree that some of them made a presumptuous evaluation
that there would be no more diplomatic issues in the next 3 years. The pressure from the US human rights
diplomacy could be ignored in the future.
In
reality, the following is also what had happened. Some Chinese human rights activists who were put on trial
but did not receive verdicts were immediately sentenced as soon as Obama left
China. International human rights
organizations all feel that these detained human rights activists were
originally designated to be hostage gifts to be given to the visiting US
president. However, Obama's
attitude was too weak to accept these gifts, thus the sentences of these human
rights hostages were issued with the further deterioration of the human rights
situation in China. These
predictions are not without their reasons. What the Chinese Communist regime did exactly proves that
the deterioration has started.
But
I have also noticed some incoherent phenomena. To an observer from inside of the USA, even before Obama's
China visit the trade clash between the USA and China intensified. The political relationship between the
two countries is also in a period of cooling off. Internationally, the trade clashes between Europe and
China started earlier and with larger magnitude. Politically, Europe treated China with even less
enthusiasm. As the near neighbor
to China, Japan seems even more antsy.
The new Yukio Hatoyama administration has adopted a more radical
periphery diplomacy. Instead of
relying on America, it is taking initiative diplomatically by relying on
itself. Some media attribute this
to the decline of the USA.
But
I do not think so. From viewing
both internationally and within the USA, the troop to besiege the Chinese
Communist Party and force it to make compromises both on human rights and trade
has already built up. The rest is
to determine the combat scheme.
Should it follow the strategy of the G. W. Bush administration and
assume the US can take care of everything? Or should it mobilize the initiative conscience of
these allies to fight together? I
think that Obama took a different strategy than did Bush. From the result, it seems to be so as
well.
In
the past, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and other Southeast Asian
countries had all pushed off the responsibility from Chinese Communist Party's
threat to the USA. These countries
have been relying on the protection from the USA on one side, while pleasing
the Chinese Communist regime for economic interest on the other. That strategy makes the USA the villain
to Communist China, while these countries were pleasing both sides for
profit. This kind of setup not
only forced the USA to carry too much weight, but also means that the alliance
could fall apart any time. The
realities in the past several decades indeed prove that the members of this alliance
all had their own selfish calculations: the idea of "consolidate at every
step" became "retreat step by step". The USA's functionality in Asia has been rapidly declining,
while the Chinese Communist regime has been happily "rising".
In
the Art of War by Sunwu there is a saying: Capable yet show as incapable. That also means to take a retreat as a
way to advance. Showing its
weakness, or using a weak diplomacy by the Obama team this year, has forced Japan,
South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, etc. to be nervous, and thus reaffirm their
own positions and responsibilities.
Only when all the members of the alliance take the responsibility and
move forward can this alliance have a real capacity of action, instead of
undercutting each other. As the
saying goes, shared threat produces shared interest. Regardless of the subjective strategy of President Obama,
the objective circumstance is that the Western alliance is rebuilding.
The
era that the USA can take care of everything has passed. But the Western alliance under the US
leadership shall be strengthened during this rebuilding process. This is more effective than simply
crying out against the "China threat".
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2009/WeiJS091126USstrategy.mp3
(Written
and recorded on November 26, 2009.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A509-W291
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A509-W291
Release
Date: November 29, 2009
发布日：2009年11月29日
Topic:
Strategic Change in the USA -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：美国战略的变化 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2009/report2009-11/WeiJS091129USstrategyA509-W291.htm
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《美国战略的变化》
-- 魏京生
最近两个星期，对奥巴马总统访华的批评一直没有停止。不但美国的媒体一面倒；欧洲的媒体也没有停止批评：软弱、两手空空、放弃原则、无能等词汇反复使用。这反映了一般民众对奥巴马的不满情绪。美国两党左右派的不满更加严重。民主党的议员们还忍得住；反对党共和党的议员们压制不住自己的愤怒，在这周召开了一个紧急记者会。邀请了我和一些资深学者及活动家一起批评和讨论了奥巴马访华为什么使得公众如此失望。
另一方面从中国的媒体上看，中共那一群人有点儿得意忘形的意思。他们从来没有遇到过这么听话的对手：连美国总统行程的细节，都要由中共来审查决定。这在历史上从来没有过。美国总统的待遇，似乎降到了非洲小兄弟的档次。这使得中共党内的自大心理再一次膨胀。甚至有人狂妄地估计：今后三年不会再有什么外交问题了--人权外交的压力，从此可以忽略不计；只要去全力以赴地进行内斗就可以了。
现实中的中共也已经这样做了：一些久拖不判的人权活动人士，在奥巴马刚刚离开中国就立即判了刑。国际人权组织都倾向于认为，本来这些被捕的人权活动家是准备作为人质礼物送给美国总统的。但因为奥巴马的态度过分软弱，礼物已经没有必要了：所以人质就被判刑；人权状况也将进一步恶化。这些预测不是没有道理，中共的表现正在证明恶化的过程正在开始。
但是我也注意到了一些不协调的现象。从美国国内看：奥巴马访华前，中美贸易摩擦正在加剧；两国政治关系，也正处在降温的阶段。从国际看：欧洲和中国的贸易摩擦比美国开始得早，动作的幅度也更大；政治上对中共也更冷漠一些。日本由于是中国的的近邻，似乎更加坐不住。新一届鸠山内阁在周边外交上采取的是更加激进的政策：不再依赖美国，而是以日本自身为主的主动外交。一些媒体把这些都归因于美国的衰落。
我却不这么认为。因为从美国国内外的形势上来看，一场围攻中共，迫使其在人权和贸易上做出让步的战斗，已经集结完毕，剩下的就是决定战斗方案了。是按照布什时代的战略，由美国包办一切呢？还是动员盟友的主动意识，发挥共同的战斗意志呢？我认为奥巴马的美国采取了不同于布什的战略。从效果上看也正是这样。
过去的日本、韩国和台湾、新加坡等东南亚各国，都是把对付中共威胁的责任推给了美国。它们一面依赖美国的保护；一面向中共谄媚捞取经济利益。也就是让美国作恶人，日、韩、台、新等两面讨好从中渔利。这种格局不但使美国不堪重负；而且使联盟随时可能瓦解。几十年的实践也证明了这个联盟各打各的小算盘：步步为营却是步步后退。美国在亚洲的作用也在迅速下降，而共产党反倒在那儿兴高采烈地崛起。
孙子兵法说：能而示之以不能。这也是以退为进的意思。奥巴马团队一年来的示弱或说软弱外交，反倒逼得日韩台新等坐不住了，得重新确定自己的地位和责任了。一个联盟内的盟友都承担自己的责任奋勇向前，联盟才能产生战斗力而不是互相拆台。正像俗话说的那样：共同的威胁产生共同的利害。不管奥巴马的主观谋略是什么，客观形势已经在重新塑造西方联盟。
由美国包办一切的时代已经过去了，但以美国为首的西方联盟却在重塑的过程中加强。这比天天空喊中国威胁更加有效。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2009/WeiJS091126USstrategy.mp3
（撰写并录音于2009年11月26日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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