Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition News and Article Release Issue Number: A524-O158

中国民主运动海外联席会议新闻与文章发布号：A524-O158

Release Date: January 22, 2010

发布日：2010年1月22日

Topic: The Prospect of a Democratic Vietnam and a Democratic China (Wei Jingsheng's Speech at the Symposium on Human Rights and Democracy Development in Vietnam and China)

标题: 越南和中国的民主化前途(魏京生在加州西敏斯特市中越人权民主座谈会上的演讲)

Original Language Version: English (Chinese version at the end)

此号以英文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

Note: Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese parts of this release. If this mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request for special delivery to us or visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-01/WeiJSspeechVietnam100122WestminsterA524-O158.htm　which contains identical information.

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The Prospect of a Democratic Vietnam and a Democratic China

-- Wei Jingsheng's Speech at the Symposium on Human Rights and Democracy Development in Vietnam and China

Late on January 21, 2010, Wei Jingsheng arrived Los Angels for a series human rights activities mainly hosted by the Vietnamese communities.

In the morning of January 22, 2010, he visited the headquarter of Nguoi Viet, the largest Vietnamese daily newspaper overseas, where he gave interviews to varies news media of newspaper, magazines, radio and television, includes Radio Free Asia.

In the afternoon of January 22, 2010, Wei Jingsheng was an invited keynote speaker at the Symposium on Human Rights and Democracy Development in Vietnam and China. Another keynote speaker was Mr. David Satter, an expert on Soviet Union and Eastern European communism.

The symposium was held at Coastline Community College in Westminster, California. The event was sponsored by the Tan Dai Viet Party and co-sponsored by the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition and the Nguyen Ngoc Huy Foundation.

The symposium started with the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition and the other sponsors receiving Certificates of Recognition from Janet Nguyen, the chair of the Board of Supervisors of Orange County, California. Several well-recognized Vietnamese community and human rights leaders also gave presentations at the symposium.

The following is the main part of Wei Jingsheng's speech.

__ __ __

The Prospect of a Democratic Vietnam and a Democratic China

-- Wei Jingsheng

To learn about the democratic future of China and Vietnam, we need to make an analysis of both countries, as well as to understand the international environment of both of them. Then we could learn both favorable and disadvantaged conditions for us, thus to guide our actions.

The current social characteristic for both Vietnam and China is that although both countries have transformed into bureaucratic monopoly capitalist states, they are somehow different from Russia and Eastern Europe. The biggest difference is that they are still under the Communist Party's one-party dictatorship. Without competition in a multi-party system, both countries lack the more relaxed environment for speech and publications that both Russia and East Europe have. In Vietnam and China, it is very hard for the opposition to survive inside the country, and the opposition overseas has much more difficulty to participate in the politics inside. Thus, it produces a big predicament for us.

The special agencies of the Communist Party have become very effective. With the disjunction of inside and outside, it plants their agents, misguides our directions, sows dissension, and even leads the opposition into its traps. This makes a transformation or revolution facilitated by a united opposition that is well organized and well planned very difficult. At the current stage, the main form of opposition is by the people on their own with their decentralized action against the tyranny and economic ultra-exploitation. The public media are the main tool to mobilize the people. Traditional secretive organizations could only have small-scale operations. The overall mobilization of the people could only depend on mass communication tools. This is why the Chinese Communist regime pays great attention to block the information of both news media and the Internet.

On the other side, due to the lack of basic human rights, the exploitation and suppression by the combined effort from the government officials and business become ever more stark, thus resulting in even stronger opposition. So the transformation forces of countries such as China, Vietnam and North Korea are mainly from the middle and lower classes. The ways of transformation are not just limited to peaceful ones. Violent opposition often becomes the main force that impels societies to change. Also due to the intimate connection of government officials and business, the government has lost its judging position over business disputes. The internal fights within the governments have become even more violent than at any other times and circumstances. The surfacing of the criminal underworld and personal military have become a new routine in assisting political struggle, thus making the society even less stable and more complicated.

In the past a few decades, the international environment has been very unfavorable to the opposition forces of countries such as China and Vietnam. The "China Model" invented by Deng XiaoPing was able to buy out the Western capitalists in the way of sharing the cheap labor, thus indirectly controlling the politics and academics of the West. It was able to force the mainstream society of the West to surrender themselves to the interests of the Communist Party and give up their value systems. This has resulted in the West continuing its economic blood transfusion to the Communist countries and taking tolerant and appeasement policies toward the new style bureaucratic capitalists of the Communist Parties. During the 16 years of US President Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, this policy of appeasement reached its peak. The relationship between the Western democracy and Asian dictatorship transformed from confrontation, to tolerance, to open cooperation. The overseas opposition forces of China and Vietnam became thorns in the eyes of the politicians of these democratic countries. Using the words of a well-known American scholar on the left: "these anti-Communist pro-democracy activists do not meet the main ideology stream of America".

However, now the situation is changing. Although the appeasement policy still occupies the mainstream, the west economy is in recession due to its blood transfusion to the Communist countries over more than one decade. The so-called "free market economy" theory lost its battle against the not free market economy. While the business people of both West and East made super profits, the wage and salary earners did not get the benefit of the economic development. Instead of expansion, the market shrank, which is the root cause of the global economic recession. Thus, the Western countries started to realize this historic mistake and naturally will take measures to correct it. They should give up their appeasement policies with the Communist government, and restart a new confrontation and competition. They should start their confrontation from market protection first.

This change is the exterior condition that may force the new bureaucratic capitalist system of the Communist Party to reform, or to collapse. The overseas opposition has a main task beyond continuously using the media for positive mobilization of democracy and freedom. This new task, in cooperation with a market protection policy by the democratic countries, will be opposing the nationalism that will be mobilized by the Communist Party naturally. By borrowing the power from the international society, we could push for the reforms of the redistribution system, or political revolution in our own countries. This trade battle will not benefit the bureaucratic capitalism; yet will only be beneficial to the waged and salary workers and private capital of our countries, which is the best measure to push for democratic revolution and to avoid the disordered insurrection.

Finally, let me make it clear, under an environment without basic free speech and free media, yet with a matured economic system of bureaucratic capitalism, the so called "color revolution of peace, rational and non-violence" could be only a trick of deceive; to the best is a good fantasy that cannot be realized.

-- Wei Jingsheng

Chair, Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition

January 22, 2010

Westminster, CA, USA

Related photos:

1. WEI Jingsheng, HUANG Ciping, and David Satter with Vietnamese journalists and human rights leaders:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2010/newsletters2010-1/WeiJSwithVietnamese100122journalists-c-4.jpg

2. Wei Jingsheng and David Satter at the Symposium, introduced by Vietnamese human rights leader Robert Le:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2010/newsletters2010-1/WeiJSspeaker100122VietnamSymposium-c-4.jpg

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中文版

Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition News and Article Release Issue Number: A524-O158

中国民主运动海外联席会议新闻与文章发布号：A524-O158

Release Date: January 22, 2010

发布日：2010年1月22日

Topic: The Prospect of a Democratic Vietnam and a Democratic China (Wei Jingsheng's Speech at the Symposium on Human Rights and Democracy Development in Vietnam and China)

标题: 越南和中国的民主化前途(魏京生在加州西敏斯特市中越人权民主座谈会上的演讲)

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-01/WeiJSspeechVietnam100122WestminsterA524-O158.htm

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越南和中国的民主化前途

-- 魏京生在加州西敏斯特市中越人权民主座谈会上的演讲

魏京生于2010年1月21日晚抵加州洛杉矶参加一系列由越南社区组织的人权活动。

2010年1月22日上午，他访问了越南海外最大的报纸《越人报》。他接受了各种报纸、杂志、电台和电视，包括自由亚洲电台越语部的采访。

2010年1月22日下午，魏京生受邀在《越南和中国的民主化前途》座谈会上主讲。另一位主讲者是有关苏联和东欧问题的专家David Satter。在西敏斯特市的海岸线社区大学举行的座谈会由越南新大越党及中国民主运动海外联席会议等主办。

座谈会前，中国民主运动海外联席会议等主办单位收到了加州橙县督办主席的表彰。其他越南社区和人权领袖也在座谈会上发了言。

以下为魏京生演讲的主要内容。

__ __ __

越南和中国的民主化前途

为了了解中国和越南的民主化前途。我们先要分析两国的现状。还必须知道两国现在所处的国际环境。然后找出有利的和不利的条件，用以指导我们的行动。

中越两国现在的社会性质。虽然早已转型为官僚垄断资本主义。但是和俄罗斯、东欧的情况有所区别。最大的区别就是仍然由共产党一党专政，而没有多党的竞争。因此也没有俄罗斯和东欧的宽松的言论和出版方面的环境。反对派在国内很难生存，海外的反对派也很难直接参与国内的政治。这就造成了一个很大的困境。

共产党的特务机关在对付反对派上变得十分有效。他们可以利用内外之间的脱节，安插人手，误导方向，挑拨离间，甚至指挥反对派误入陷阱。有组织的、有计划的，由联合的反对派促成的变革或革命。在这种情况下很难操作。人民自觉的，分散的反抗暴政和超经济剥削的行动。至少是当前阶段的主要形式。大众传媒是动员群众的主要工具，传统的密谋组织的方式只能小规模的操作。整体思想的动员只能依靠大众传播工具。这就是中共特别重视新闻和电脑媒体封锁的原因。

另一方面。由于缺少起码的人权，官商结合的剥削和压迫也更加赤裸裸。激起的反抗也更加强烈。所以中国、越南和北朝鲜等国的变革动力主要来自社会的中下层。变革的方式则不仅仅是和平的，人民被迫的暴力反抗。经常成为促使社会不得不变化的主要的动力。同样因为官商结合，官方失去了裁判者的地位，参与到商业纠纷中。官方的内斗比任何时候和情况下更为激烈。黑社会和私人武装的出现成为辅助政治斗争的新事务。也造成了社会更加不稳定，更加复杂。

前几十年的国际环境对中越等国的反对派非常不利。邓小平发明的所谓“中国模式”，靠分享廉价劳动力收买了西方资产阶级。间接地控制了西方政治和学术，使西方主流社会放弃了价值观而屈从于共产党的利益。在经济上为共产党国家输血；在政治上对共产党的新型官僚资产阶级采取容忍和绥靖政策。在克林顿和布什执政的十六年里，绥靖主义发展到最高峰。民主和专制之间的关系从对抗到容忍直到公开合作。中越等国的海外反对派势力成为了民主国家政客们的眼中钉。用一句美国知名左派学者的话说；这些反共的民主派人士“不符合美国主流意识形态”。

现在情况正在发生着变化。虽然绥靖主义仍然占有主流地位，但是十几年来向共产党国家输血已经造成了西方经济的衰退。所谓的自由市场经济理论在和不自由的市场经济的较量中失败了。东西方的商人们赚到了超额的利润；东西方的工薪阶层没有得到经济发展的好处。市场不是扩大了而是萎缩了，这就是当前全球经济衰退的根本原因。因此，西方国家正在认识到这个历史性的错误。必然会采取补救措施：放弃绥靖主义；重新开始对抗和竞争。而且首先会从市场保护开始对抗。

这是迫使共产党新的官僚资产阶级体系改革或者崩溃的外部条件。海外反对派除了继续利用媒体作正面的民主自由的思想动员外。最主要的任务，就是推动和配合民主国家的市场保护政策。抵制共产党必然会发动的民族主义。借助国际社会的力量，推动自己国家内部的分配制度改革或者政治革命。除了不符合官僚资产阶级的利益外，这场贸易战对各国的工薪阶层和私人资本都是有利无害。而且是推动民主革命和避免无序的暴动的最佳手段。

最后说明。在没有起码的言论和传播自由的环境下，在经济体系已经成熟的官僚资本化的前提下。所谓的“和平理性非暴力的颜色革命”，如果不是骗人的伎俩。也只能是个良好但不能实现的幻想。

魏京生

中国民主运动海外联席会议主席

2010年1月22日

美国加州西敏斯特市