Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A614-W378
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A614-W378
Release
Date: February 20, 2011
发布日：2011年2月20日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XXXIV): Opposition in China -- Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之三十四：中国的反对派 -- 魏京生
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The
Way Out for China (Part XXXIV): Opposition in China
--
Wei Jingsheng
As
everyone is paying attention to the democratic wave in the Arabic countries, a
common topic is the impact this democratic wave may have on China. Not only are the Chinese people
discussing it; the foreign commentators have the same concern. While trying hard to block the news,
the Chinese Communist regime is releasing antagonistic propaganda as well. Titles are often "China is not
Egypt", etc. The Communist
Party talks loud about the differences between China and Egypt, hoping to prove
that the democratic tide in Egypt would not happen in China. If so, why does the regime block the
Egyptian news in both the traditional media and the Internet? Why doesn't it allow the Netizens to
talk about the democratic revolution in Egypt? It is really a clumsy denial resulting in self-exposure.
When
various factors accumulate to a critical state, a revolution will occur in
variety of ways for a variety of reasons.
Revolution should not have to be defined in any specific way for any
specific reason after all. Saying
that China is not Egypt is pure rubbish, just like claiming that bread is not
the same as rice. However, when
there is the need for food, both bread and rice will serve the purpose. For revolution, various ways and
reasons have their own possibilities.
All these people want to achieve is their purpose and freedom, instead
of academic study of history.
After all, history is composed of various purposes, some that have been
achieved and some that have not.
That history cannot say that one purpose will or will not work today.
Egypt
and the Arab countries are societies controlled by social groups which are very
religious. There, religion has
always been an important factor for social movement, and plays a central role
in attracting the masses. Under
the shell of religion, it contains various political goals. This is the complexity of Arab society.
Chinese
society is no different. All sorts
of emerging political goals wrapped with traditional ideologies are propagated
in the masses, resulting in reform or revolution at a proper time. This model of putting new wine in old
bottles has been around since ancient times, and it is the most effective way
with minimal investment for propagating the idea of revolution. This approach is quietly rising in
China now, which is an important signal that China is approaching its
revolution.
In
China, the democratic concepts spread from the West have already received
popular support. Even in internal
fights within the Communist Party, each faction uses the concept of democracy
to win a commanding point. However,
this hope of all the people is not yet as strong as the essentials of living,
such as salt and rice.
Historically, a new social system could only become an unshakable idea
after many years of success.
Before that success, it will be wrapped in an old ideology to be
propagated and fermented, until it gradually breaks the ideological foundations
of the old system, and builds legitimacy for an emerging new society.
In
China today, the most obvious form of this phenomenon is the so-called
"New Mao Left". Their
latest development a few days ago was a recommendation letter to the Chinese
Communist Party by "the Association of Yan'An Children". The language used in that letter is in
the stereotypical Communist Party style which nowadays people are not so
familiar with and surely will make many people uncomfortable. As soon as one reads the letter, it is
obvious that the suggestions are also insignificant and impossible to
implement. Almost all the comments
I have read were laughing at it, as if the letter was written by a bunch of
daydreaming fools. To the least
the writers seem outdated.
However,
if you look at the contents of the letter carefully rather than its format, or
if you treat it as publicity and a public opinion, then it is really worth
reading. It comes straight to the
point that the focus of contemporary social conflict is exactly due to social
injustice and the disparity between the rich and poor. It also specifically points out without
uncertainty the responsibility of the Communist Party for these problems. It further analyzes that the reason for
this result is undemocratic and the solution is to promote democracy. The reason for promoting democracy is
the so-called traditional "mass line" that was promoted by the early
Communist Party, rather than "elites ruling the country" that has
been advocated for many years now.
Although
it did not say that openly, this letter implies dictated elitism or democracy
by the elites are failed models, and are the culprits causing the situation in
China today. This expression is
exactly the mainstream theory of the modern Chinese democracy movement, as well
as the inspiration the Chinese people have taken from the Arabic democratic
wave. After the democratic waves
of the 1970's and 1980's in China, various authoritarian regimes have learned
to buy out the elite by sharing the interests of the dictatorship. The most typical is Jiang Zemin's
inclusion of the elite in the "three representatives". The Chinese Communist Party bought a
large number of elite, a tiny minority of the population, to share the
interests of despotism and to channel them into the vested interests
group. This successfully approach
of paying little price with high efficiency, has long been proved as effective
by China's traditional authoritarian system.
In
the wave of Arabic democratic movements, the democratic elite touted by
Westerners almost did not play any positive role. This revelation itself proves that the "China
model" of buying out the elite is indeed very successful. Rather, it is little known young people
and religious forces that dominate this revolution. A simple truth by the ancient Chinese is "Before the
ashes in the pits turned cold, there came the chaos in Shandong. After all, both Liu and Xiang were not
intellectuals". In these two
lines of the poem of the Tang Dynasty, "the ashes in the pits" refers
to the "Burning of the Books" by Qin Shi Huang, the first emperor of
China; while "Liu and Xiang" refer specifically to the most well known
uprising leaders who ended the Qin Dynasty, as well as uprising leaders in
general.
Under
the premise of intense social contradictions, the whole society has the need to
resolve the conflict back to normal.
This need is the driving force of revolution. We must find a way to release that dynamic force. Of course, the best would be for the
intellectual elite to lead the revolution, but this is only the best in
theory. When the intellectuals are
bought out and unable to function, the dynamic force will seek other ways to
release itself, and will not give up until it reaches its goal. This is the pattern exhibited in Egypt
and the other Arabic countries.
In
China, it is also the reason that the "mass line" comes to the stage
again, after years of incompetence by elite opposition. Since international society is already
bought out by the money of the tyranny, the importance of the mass line becomes
even more apparent. When peaceful
demonstrations have already been proven ineffective, violent revolution and a
coup become the leftover choices.
In recent years, a lot of political groups holding the banner of
"Mao's Leftists" pleading for the people have emerged in China. They are the new and developing
opposition groups.
This
type of opposition, new wine put in old bottles, is a bit like that of the
religious groups in the Muslim countries.
These groups are the real opposition, the new wine put in old bottles
type of revolutionaries.
Just like the Protestant opposition in the democratic waves in Europe,
they are promoters of democracy.
In the situation when the old wine put in new bottles kind of elite
democrats failed, these new and developing oppositions will bring the new
breakthroughs for a people's revolution.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110218ChinaWayOut34ChineseOpposition.mp3
(Written
and recorded on February 18, 2010.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A614-W378
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A614-W378
Release
Date: February 20, 2011
发布日：2011年2月20日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XXXIV): Opposition in China -- Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之三十四：中国的反对派 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2011/report2011-02/WeiJS110220ChinaWayOut34ChineseOppositionA614-W378.htm
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《中国的出路》之三十四：中国的反对派
-- 魏京生
大家在关注阿拉伯的民主浪潮的时候，有一个共同的话题，就是对中国的影响。不但中国人议论，外国的评论家们也有同样的关注。中共在封锁消息的同时，也释放出了对抗性的舆论，标题就叫做“中国不是埃及”等等。中共大谈中国和埃及的不同之处，希望能证明埃及的民主浪潮不会在中国发生。果真如此，为什么还要在媒体和网络上封锁埃及的消息呢？为什么不准人们在网络上议论埃及的民主革命呢？这真是此地无银三百两。
当各种因素积累到临界状态时，革命会以各种方式、各种理由发生。这本来就没有什么规定了的理由和方式。说中国不是埃及纯粹是废话，就像说馒头不是米饭一样的废话。但在解决吃饭的问题上，馒头和米饭都能达到目的。在革命的问题上，各种理由和方式都有成功的可能性。人们要达到的是目的，而不是在探讨历史。何况历史本身也是由各种达到和没达到的目的组成的。
埃及和阿拉伯国家都是由宗教性很强的社会团体控制的社会。在那里，宗教从来都是各种社会运动的重要因素，在吸引无知群众方面发挥着核心的作用。在其宗教的外壳下面包含着各种各样的政治目标。这是阿拉伯社会的复杂性。
中国的社会也不例外。各种传统的意识形态也会包裹着各种新兴的政治目标在群众里传播，在适当的时机发动起改革或者革命。这种旧瓶装新酒的模式自古就有，且是一种投资最小、见效最好的革命宣传方式。这种方式正在现在的中国悄悄地兴起，是中国正在临近革命的重要信号。
从西方传到中国的民主观念早已深入人心。就是共产党的内斗，也不得不引用民主的观念争夺制高点。但这种全民的希望并没有强烈到成为必不可少的理由，并没有像柴米油盐那样成为生活的必需品。从历史上看，新的社会制度需要在成功多年之后才会成为人们不可动摇的观念。成功之前，它都会包裹在旧的意识形态里传播和酝酿；并逐渐打破旧制度的意识形态基础，为新社会的出现制造合法性。
在现今的中国，这种现象最明显的形式就是所谓的新毛左。他们最新的动态，就是前几天发表的一份名义上叫做“延安儿女联谊会”的组织给中共的建议信。建议信使用的语言是现代人早就不熟悉的党八股，看上去肯定让很多人不舒服。信里的建议也毫无意义，让人一看就知道是不可能实行的。我看到的评论几乎都是一笑置之，认为是一群无聊的傻瓜在白日做梦，至少也是太落伍了。
可是如果你仔细看看内容，且不要拘泥于建议信的格式，而是把它当作一种宣传、一种舆论，就很有看头了。它开门见山指出的，正是中国当代社会矛盾的焦点：贫富差距，社会不公；并且毫不含糊地指明责任是在共产党身上。它还进一步分析到，造成这种结果的原因就是不民主；解决的办法就是推进民主。而推进民主的理由就是所谓的共产党传统的群众路线，而不是鼓吹多年的精英治国。
虽然没有明说，但它暗指精英治国或者精英民主都是失败的模式，都是造成当今中国状况的罪魁祸首。而这正是现代中国民主的主流理论，也是阿拉伯民主浪潮给中国人的启示。在七、八十年代的民主浪潮之后，各种专制政权早就学会了收买精英，分享专制的模式。这以江泽民的三种精英相结合最为典型。中共大量收买占人口少数的知识精英，让他们分享专制的利益，把他们纳入既得利益集团。这种代价不大却收效很高的成功模式，早已被中国传统专制制度证明为有效的方式。
这一波阿拉伯民主浪潮中，被西方人吹捧的民主精英们几乎没有起到任何正面的作用。这就证明了收买精英的“中国模式”的确非常成功。事实上，反倒是名不见经传的年轻人和宗教势力主导着这场革命。这就同时证明了中国古人早就指明的一个简单道理：坑灰未冷山东乱，刘项原来不读书。这两句唐诗里边的“坑灰”指的是秦始皇焚书坑儒，“刘项”指的是秦末起义的最著名领袖刘邦和项羽，也泛指起义的领袖们。
在社会矛盾尖锐的前提下，整个社会有解决矛盾、恢复正常的需要。这种需要就是革命的动力。有了这种动力，就要寻找释放动力的方式。知识精英固然是领导革命的最佳方式，但这只是理论上的最佳。当他们因为被收买而不起作用的时候，动力会寻找其它的方式来释放自己，不达目的绝不会罢休。这就是埃及和阿拉伯民主浪潮所表现出来的规律。
在中国，这也是那些精英反对派多年无能之后，群众路线再次登上舞台的原因。既然国际社会也已经被专制的金钱所收买，群众路线的重要性就更加明显了。既然和平示威的方式早已被证明是无效的，暴力革命和政变就成了剩下的选择。近年来，在中国出现的大量打着毛左的旗号为民请命的政治团体，就是新兴的反对派团体。
这种旧瓶装新酒的反对派有点像穆斯林国家的宗教团体。他们是实实在在的反对派团体，是旧瓶装新酒的革命者。和欧洲民主浪潮中的新教反对派一样，他们是民主的推动者。在新瓶装旧酒的精英民主派失败的形势下，这些反对派是人民革命的新的突破口。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110218ChinaWayOut34ChineseOpposition.mp3
（撰写并录音于2月18日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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