Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A754-W480

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号: A754-W480


Release Date: March 23, 2013



Topic: The Comparison between Sino-Soviet Relations and the China-DPRK Relations -- Wei Jingsheng

标题:中苏关系和中朝关系比较 -- 魏京生


Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)



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The Comparison between Sino-Soviet Relations and the China-DPRK Relations

-- Wei Jingsheng


I read the micro-blogs by Mr. Mao Yushi online where he commented on the CCTV historic program called "Unlock the Secret of the Sino-Soviet Diplomatic Archives".  The program selectively unlocked some contents from the early era of the Sino-Soviet diplomatic relations, with vivid descriptions of intrigues between the brothers of the Communist Parties.  What made Mr. Mao in particular resentful was that Stalin and Kim Il Sung joined hands to deceive the Chinese Communist Party.  They dragged China into the quagmire of the Korean War, which wasted the lives of more than one million people.  That was a heinous crime.


But netizens' comments mainly were not on this.  Instead, they noticed the background for the introduction of this series: it is right at the time when North Korea (DPRK) is subject to UN sanctions approved by both the USA and China due to its nuclear test.  This "coincidence" is a bit out of line with the typical routine of the introduction of a TV series that usually meets the Chinese Communist Party's propaganda effort.  It could be suspected this TV series is being used to explain China's difficult position to the international society -- as its effort to illustrate that the China-DPRK relation is pretty much the same as the Sino-Soviet relation back then, that China could not control this little rogue of North Korea.


If indeed there is the intention to use this program to illustrate the China-DPRK relations, then this explanation is certainly fraudulent.  The Chinese Communist government does not have credit within China, nor has it much credit internationally.  If it tries to explain relations so directly, the others would not believe it.  So what to do?  Fortunately, the analysts in the USA mostly do not know China that well, even less so North Korea.  So by making this roundabout, they might to make their own analysis, thus achieving the purpose of the fraud.


Why is this fraud?  It is because there are fundamental differences between the Sino-Soviet relations and the China-DPRK relations.


The first is their different dimensions.  The Sino-Soviet relation was the relationship between two big countries.  The Soviet Union may have been able to reach its goal through deceiving China, but not through forcing China.  Besides the intrigue, exchange in equality was the main part of the Sino-USSR relationship.  The large-scale aid from the Soviet Union to China was on the condition that China ceded Outer Mongolia and chose a foreign policy that was one-sided to the Soviet Union.  Both considered Stalin had the advantage, rather than China.


The second difference is their different roles.  After deceiving China to fight against the USA in North Korea, the Soviets could no longer to instigate China to stir up trouble according to Soviet intention.  However, as a little brother that receives massive aid from China, North Korea has to stir up trouble whenever the Chinese Party wants, even when against its own interests at its own expense.  Although privately it certainly resents China, a little brother can only be in the role of a little brother, because the big brother could strangle his neck anytime.  This is totally different that the previous Sino-Soviet relationship.


The third difference is the environment.  Back then there was no opponent in the peripheral region to China that directly threatened China.  Even the Kuomintang Army that had fled to Taiwan did not pose a threat to the Chinese Communist regime.  That is true to this day.  But both the national strength and the army of South Korea are now far stronger than North Korea, especially with the help of the U.S. military.  Further, there is a ministerial level department in South Korea that others do not have; the Ministry of Unification.  This is in a gesture that is ready to swallow the North at any time.  So if North Korea abandons its alliance with the Chinese Communists, it is equal to suicide.


Under these circumstances, if the Chinese government does not have the intention to support a little rogue that has different interests, it has the entire ability to compel North Korea not to stir up any more trouble.  However, right now it is not forcefully requiring North Korea to stop making trouble, so it only illustrates that the Chinese government is still where it was in the past -- what it hopes or needs North Korea to be is a pawn of the Chinese diplomatic strategy: using it to continuously stir up trouble to make a deal with the West.


But is this possible?  These conditions might be in the past.  With the muddled thinking of a political counselor, Hu Jintao had quite a sense of trust to North Korea that carried its autocracy without retreating backwards.  Also, then ruler Kim Jong-Il was fairly wise -- he would give bragging talk of independence domestically, but be more moderate externally and not allow fallout with the Chinese Communists.  On important issues, Kim Jong-Il would still listen to the covert command of the Chinese Communist Party.


But the new Chinese leadership headed by Xi Jinping is no longer ideology based Dopey.  They have all personally experienced the ruthless autocracy, as well as have seen the intrigues of the Communist brothers.  They would not be relenting to their little brother of the Communist Party unless they are the stakeholders.  However, Kim Jong-Un treats the independent boast he saw when he was a kid as true, and now he is determined to continue what his father and grandfather did not accomplish.  It seems that he is really ready for a fallout with the Chinese Communists, and posturing with Communist China to play the American card.


As of now, it is unknown if the Americans are willing to be a toy for this little rogue.  But Communist China has already supported the resolution of sanctions against North Korea in the United Nations, with a strong gesture of falling out.  However, obviously it has not given a powerful strike; it still holds the illusion that Kim Jong-Un will turn around.  In other words, Xi Jinping still hopes to continuously use the little rogue to make trouble for the security in East Asia.  But apparently, Kim Jong-Un thinks that his strategy to seek a balance between the major powers will be successful.  If the United States took the olive branch from Kim Jong-Un, Xi Jinping's illusion will be awkwardly burst.


But could the United States be able to control a shameless villain without credit such as North Korea?  Americans have always been confident, and often been relatively shortsighted.  There is also the factor of South Korea at work.  It is destined to be unable to control this little brother that is used to being the rogue.  If the United States took over this rogue state from the hands of China, it will become the bane of East Asian security.  The Chinese Communists still have a way to force this little rogue to obey when necessary.


So do not believe that North Korea will fall out with a big country the way China did with the Soviets back then.  North Korea is not that emboldened.  Instead of Americans wrongfully spending money yet unable to control this little rogue, it is better to have China to carry this responsibility.  Not only could China cut its aid to promote Kim Jong-Un's downfall, it also could sent troops to North Korea in the pretext of suppressing internal insurrection.  Regardless whether little chubby Kim is smart or confused, Communist China has a lot of ways to subdue him.  One should not let Communist China to shirk its responsibility so easily.


It appears that the unification of the Korean Peninsula is not in the foreseeable future due to the confused South Koreans and weak Americans.  If the South Koreans only care about family ties instead of distinguishing right from wrong, if South Korea does not support the people to overthrow the dictatorship of the North Korean Communists, then regardless how loud their unification slogans are, they could only be a hypocritical political show.  That show is just as hypocritical as Wei Jiabo's political show.



To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:



(Written on March 7 and recorded on March 8, 2013.  Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)



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Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A754-W480

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号: A754-W480


Release Date: March 23, 2013



Topic: The Comparison between Sino-Soviet Relations and the China-DPRK Relations -- Wei Jingsheng

标题:中苏关系和中朝关系比较 -- 魏京生


Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)









-- 魏京生










































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