Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A754-W480
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A754-W480
Release
Date: March 23, 2013
发布日：2013年3月23日
Topic:
The Comparison between Sino-Soviet Relations and the China-DPRK Relations --
Wei Jingsheng
标题：中苏关系和中朝关系比较 -- 魏京生
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Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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The
Comparison between Sino-Soviet Relations and the China-DPRK Relations
--
Wei Jingsheng
I
read the micro-blogs by Mr. Mao Yushi online where he commented on the CCTV
historic program called "Unlock the Secret of the Sino-Soviet Diplomatic
Archives". The program
selectively unlocked some contents from the early era of the Sino-Soviet
diplomatic relations, with vivid descriptions of intrigues between the brothers
of the Communist Parties. What
made Mr. Mao in particular resentful was that Stalin and Kim Il Sung joined
hands to deceive the Chinese Communist Party. They dragged China into the quagmire of the Korean War,
which wasted the lives of more than one million people. That was a heinous crime.
But
netizens' comments mainly were not on this. Instead, they noticed the background for the introduction of
this series: it is right at the time when North Korea (DPRK) is subject to UN
sanctions approved by both the USA and China due to its nuclear test. This "coincidence" is a bit
out of line with the typical routine of the introduction of a TV series that
usually meets the Chinese Communist Party's propaganda effort. It could be suspected this TV series is
being used to explain China's difficult position to the international society
-- as its effort to illustrate that the China-DPRK relation is pretty much the
same as the Sino-Soviet relation back then, that China could not control this
little rogue of North Korea.
If
indeed there is the intention to use this program to illustrate the China-DPRK
relations, then this explanation is certainly fraudulent. The Chinese Communist government does
not have credit within China, nor has it much credit internationally. If it tries to explain relations so
directly, the others would not believe it. So what to do?
Fortunately, the analysts in the USA mostly do not know China that well,
even less so North Korea. So by
making this roundabout, they might to make their own analysis, thus achieving
the purpose of the fraud.
Why
is this fraud? It is because there
are fundamental differences between the Sino-Soviet relations and the
China-DPRK relations.
The
first is their different dimensions.
The Sino-Soviet relation was the relationship between two big
countries. The Soviet Union may
have been able to reach its goal through deceiving China, but not through
forcing China. Besides the
intrigue, exchange in equality was the main part of the Sino-USSR
relationship. The large-scale aid
from the Soviet Union to China was on the condition that China ceded Outer Mongolia
and chose a foreign policy that was one-sided to the Soviet Union. Both considered Stalin had the
advantage, rather than China.
The
second difference is their different roles. After deceiving China to fight against the USA in North
Korea, the Soviets could no longer to instigate China to stir up trouble
according to Soviet intention.
However, as a little brother that receives massive aid from China, North
Korea has to stir up trouble whenever the Chinese Party wants, even when
against its own interests at its own expense. Although privately it certainly resents China, a little
brother can only be in the role of a little brother, because the big brother
could strangle his neck anytime.
This is totally different that the previous Sino-Soviet relationship.
The
third difference is the environment.
Back then there was no opponent in the peripheral region to China that
directly threatened China. Even
the Kuomintang Army that had fled to Taiwan did not pose a threat to the
Chinese Communist regime. That is
true to this day. But both the
national strength and the army of South Korea are now far stronger than North
Korea, especially with the help of the U.S. military. Further, there is a ministerial level department in South
Korea that others do not have; the Ministry of Unification. This is in a gesture that is ready to
swallow the North at any time. So
if North Korea abandons its alliance with the Chinese Communists, it is equal
to suicide.
Under
these circumstances, if the Chinese government does not have the intention to
support a little rogue that has different interests, it has the entire ability
to compel North Korea not to stir up any more trouble. However, right now it is not forcefully
requiring North Korea to stop making trouble, so it only illustrates that the
Chinese government is still where it was in the past -- what it hopes or needs
North Korea to be is a pawn of the Chinese diplomatic strategy: using it to
continuously stir up trouble to make a deal with the West.
But
is this possible? These conditions
might be in the past. With the
muddled thinking of a political counselor, Hu Jintao had quite a sense of trust
to North Korea that carried its autocracy without retreating backwards. Also, then ruler Kim Jong-Il was fairly
wise -- he would give bragging talk of independence domestically, but be more
moderate externally and not allow fallout with the Chinese Communists. On important issues, Kim Jong-Il would
still listen to the covert command of the Chinese Communist Party.
But
the new Chinese leadership headed by Xi Jinping is no longer ideology based
Dopey. They have all personally
experienced the ruthless autocracy, as well as have seen the intrigues of the
Communist brothers. They would not
be relenting to their little brother of the Communist Party unless they are the
stakeholders. However, Kim Jong-Un
treats the independent boast he saw when he was a kid as true, and now he is
determined to continue what his father and grandfather did not accomplish. It seems that he is really ready for a
fallout with the Chinese Communists, and posturing with Communist China to play
the American card.
As
of now, it is unknown if the Americans are willing to be a toy for this little
rogue. But Communist China has
already supported the resolution of sanctions against North Korea in the United
Nations, with a strong gesture of falling out. However, obviously it has not given a powerful strike; it
still holds the illusion that Kim Jong-Un will turn around. In other words, Xi Jinping still hopes
to continuously use the little rogue to make trouble for the security in East
Asia. But apparently, Kim Jong-Un
thinks that his strategy to seek a balance between the major powers will be
successful. If the United States
took the olive branch from Kim Jong-Un, Xi Jinping's illusion will be awkwardly
burst.
But
could the United States be able to control a shameless villain without credit
such as North Korea? Americans
have always been confident, and often been relatively shortsighted. There is also the factor of South Korea
at work. It is destined to be
unable to control this little brother that is used to being the rogue. If the United States took over this
rogue state from the hands of China, it will become the bane of East Asian
security. The Chinese Communists
still have a way to force this little rogue to obey when necessary.
So
do not believe that North Korea will fall out with a big country the way China
did with the Soviets back then.
North Korea is not that emboldened. Instead of Americans wrongfully spending money yet unable to
control this little rogue, it is better to have China to carry this
responsibility. Not only could
China cut its aid to promote Kim Jong-Un's downfall, it also could sent troops
to North Korea in the pretext of suppressing internal insurrection. Regardless whether little chubby Kim is
smart or confused, Communist China has a lot of ways to subdue him. One should not let Communist China to
shirk its responsibility so easily.
It
appears that the unification of the Korean Peninsula is not in the foreseeable
future due to the confused South Koreans and weak Americans. If the South Koreans only care about
family ties instead of distinguishing right from wrong, if South Korea does not
support the people to overthrow the dictatorship of the North Korean
Communists, then regardless how loud their unification slogans are, they could
only be a hypocritical political show.
That show is just as hypocritical as Wei Jiabo's political show.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2013/WeiJS130308SinoSoviet.mp3
(Written
on March 7 and recorded on March 8, 2013.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A754-W480
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A754-W480
Release
Date: March 23, 2013
发布日：2013年3月23日
Topic:
The Comparison between Sino-Soviet Relations and the China-DPRK Relations --
Wei Jingsheng
标题：中苏关系和中朝关系比较 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2013/report2013-03/WeiJS130323SinoSovietA754-W480.htm
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中苏关系和中朝关系比较
-- 魏京生
在网上看到茅于轼先生的微博，评论中央电视台的历史节目，叫做《中苏外交档案解密》。该节目选择性地解密了中苏早期外交的一些内容，对共产党兄弟之间的尔虞我诈有生动的描述。让茅先生特别愤恨的是，斯大林和金日成合伙欺骗了中共。他们把中国拖进了朝鲜战争的泥潭，白白死了一百多万人。真可谓是罪恶滔天。
但网友们的评论主要不在这一点上，而是揭示这个系列节目出台的背景：正在处在朝鲜因为核试验，遭受包括中美两国在内的联合国制裁的时候。这个有点不符合中共宣传规律的系列节目的出台，有向国际社会解释中国困难的嫌疑。它似乎是想说明中朝关系和当年的中苏关系差不多，中国也无法控制朝鲜这个小流氓。
如果确实有解释中朝关系的意图，那么这个解释肯定是欺诈。中国政府不但在国内没什么信用，在国际上的信用也不怎么样。如果直接去解释，人家多半不信。怎么办呢?好在美国的分析家们一般都不太了解中国，更不了解北朝鲜。那就迂回一下，让他们自己分析出结果，以达到欺诈的目的。
为什么说是欺诈呢？这是因为中苏关系和中朝关系有根本的不同。
第一：规格不同。中苏关系是两个大国之间的关系。苏联可以欺骗中国达到它自己的目的；但不可能强迫中国达到目的。中苏之间除了尔虞我诈之外，主要是平等地作交易。苏联大规模援助中国，是以中国割让外蒙古和一边倒向苏联的外交政策为条件的。双方都认为是斯大林占了便宜，而不是中国占了便宜。
第二：作用不同。苏联除了欺骗中国在朝鲜和美国打了一仗之外，再也不可能指使中国按它的意图惹是生非。而朝鲜作为接受中国巨额援助的小兄弟，不得不为中国的战略目的惹是生非，即使违背它自己的利益也在所不惜。虽然私下里肯定怨恨中国，但小兄弟就是小兄弟，大哥可以随时卡住你的脖子。这一点和当年的中苏关系完全不同。
第三：环境不同。当年的中国在周边没有直接威胁它的对手。逃到台湾的国民党军队不对中共政权构成威胁，到今天也是如此。而韩国的国力和军队都强于北朝鲜，还有美军的帮助。而且韩国还有一个别人没有的部级单位叫做统一部，随时做出吃掉北朝鲜的姿态。北朝鲜如果放弃与中共的联盟就等于自杀。
在这样的双方态势下，中国如果不打算支持一个和自己利益不同的小流氓，它完全有能力强迫北朝鲜不再惹是生非。像现在这样不去强制性地要求北朝鲜停止惹是生非，只能说明中国政府仍然像过去一样，希望或者说需要北朝鲜成为中国外交战略的马前卒，继续以北朝鲜的惹是生非来和西方作交易。
但这可能吗？过去可能。以胡锦涛那种糊里糊涂的政治辅导员的思维，对坚持专制不后退的北朝鲜有相当的信任感。而且当时的统治者金正日也还算明智，对内吹吹牛说说独立自主可以；对外则适可而止，不会真的和中共翻脸。重大事情上，金正日还是听中共的暗中指挥。
现在的习近平为首的领导集团，不再是意识形态为主的糊涂蛋了。他们都亲身体验过专制的残酷无情，也都看见过共产党兄弟的尔虞我诈。除非利益相关，否则对共产党小兄弟不会心慈手软。而金正恩却把他小时候所看见的独立自主的吹嘘当了真，现在决心要把他父亲和祖父没完成的事业继续下去。看上去，他真的要和中共翻脸，而且摆出姿态要和中共玩美国牌。
美国人愿不愿意被这个小流氓涮着玩，现在还不知道。中共则已经在联合国支持了制裁北朝鲜的议案，翻脸的姿态相当明显。但明显它的力度不够，或者说还保有让金正恩回头是岸的幻想。也就是说习近平还希望继续使用这个小流氓，给东亚的安全制造麻烦。但是金正恩显然认为他在大国之间搞平衡的策略一定能成功。如果美国接过了金正恩的橄榄枝，习近平的幻想就只能很尴尬地破灭了。
但是美国能够控制北朝鲜这个寡廉鲜耻没有信用的小人吗？美国人从来都很自信，而且经常比较短视。还有韩国的因素在其中起作用。这就注定无法控制这个流氓成性的小兄弟。美国如果从中国手里接过这个流氓国家，它就会成为东亚安全的祸根。而中共仍然有办法强迫这个小流氓在必要的时候听话。
所以不要相信北朝鲜会像当年的中国一样和大国翻脸，它没有那个底气。与其美国花了冤枉钱还是不能控制这个小流氓，不如让中国负这个责任。中国除了可以切断援助促使金正恩垮台之外，还可以用平定内乱的借口出兵朝鲜。无论金小胖聪明还是糊涂，中共都有很多办法制服他。不能让中共这么轻松的推卸了责任。
以韩国人的糊涂和美国人的软弱，看来朝鲜半岛的统一还是遥遥无期的。如果韩国人只论亲情而不论是非；不支持人民推翻独裁专制的北朝鲜共产党，它就是把统一的口号喊得再响，也只能是一种虚伪的政治秀。那和温家宝的政治秀是一样的虚伪。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2013/WeiJS130308SinoSoviet.mp3
（撰写于2013年3月7日，录音于2013年3月8日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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