Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A799-W509

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号: A799-W509


Release Date: January 5, 2014



Topic: My New Year's Speech -- Wei Jingsheng

标题:2014新年致辞 -- 魏京生


Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)



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My New Year's Speech

-- Wei Jingsheng



The new year of 2014 is arriving.  I want to review the past year and outlook for the new year with everyone.


In the past year, there were many events happening in China.  I think there were two that were most noteworthy.  The first was the trial of Bo Xilai.  The second was the fact that Xi Jinping turned left.  These two things had and will have profound impact, with inside stories, and thus are worthy to be reviewed here.


Some people may think that the trial of Bo Xilai was just the fall of a corrupt official, although a quite high ranking one.  They might think that this trial of Bo does not have profound and far-reaching significance despite some inside stories.  But this interpretation is not true.  There are others who say that the trial of Bo is the largest political event in China since the fall of the Gang of Four.  Although this statement has some exaggeration, it is not too far from the reality.


Since Bo Xilai was sent away to Chongqing when he lost his qualification to compete for a higher position in the central government, he had inured himself from future trials and made excessive actions beyond the normal that showed originality.  He tried hard to fight for the hearts of people to regain his eligibility for the higher position, which should not be rated as effectless.  Bo Xilai attacked the unity of police and gangsters which was hated most by the average person.  He also took steps to take care of the livelihood of average people in Chongqing.  Indeed, these practices really expanded the leftist camp and also had a major impact on the bigwig capitalist politics of the Communist regime.


However, on one hand, Bo Xilai's return to the road of Mao Zedong was in the end impossible to be recognized by majority of the people, and on the other hand he lost the recognition of the elite bigwig class and attracted a lot of political opponents.  This gave Bo's biggest political opponent the opportunity to set up a trap to put him away.  Now we see this political opponent very clearly: he is the representative of the bureaucratic capitalist class in China, Wei Jiabao, the former Premier (who just stepped down one year ago).


In modern China, there is some slight difference between the concept of the bureaucratic capitalists and the bigwig elite of capitalists.  Within the bureaucratic capitalist class, there is a portion that were able to rise to high positions due to the shielding and promotion of their families, rather than complete self reliance and skills.  This portion is the bigwig elite of the capitalists, which are now often called the "Red Second Generation of the Communists" by the average Chinese.  This bigwig capitalist class is rapidly becoming the core of the whole bureaucratic capitalist class.


The reason that Wen Jiabao did not want to attack Bo Xilai directly himself during his own tenure as the premier is that he wanted to throw this hot potato to Xi Jinping who was on his way to the paramount position.  Wen Jiabao had two intentions in doing so.  One is that he was not willing, nor had the capacity to offend the core of the bigwig elite class.  The other was that he wanted to take this opportunity to split "the Red Second Generation" and thus disturb the political situation in a way similar to catching the fish by disturbing the water.  In the Chinese essay "the Thirty-six Stratagems", this one ranked 28th: "Remove the ladder when the enemy has ascended to the roof", to make sure that the enemy will not be able to escape. 


Sure enough, as soon as Xi Jinping came to power, he faced the dilemma in the case of Bo Xilai.  When Xi came to the succession, he was more powerful than Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, and even more than Jiang Zemin.  This is because he had two pillars of support.  One was the support of the clique of Jiang Zemin in the older bureaucratic class.  The other was the support of the so-called "Red Second Generation" families.  If any of these two pillars were in trouble, Xi Jinping would be in trouble.


From the perspective of Xi Jinping, a trial of Bo Xilai would make a lot of people in the "Red Second Generation" unhappy, not because they approved of Bo, but because coming from the same background they too would be threatened, to the degree like "when the rabbit is hunted down, the foxes are sad" as well.  In addition, a fairly large proportion of the people on the left side and poor would not be happy.  It would also make a lot of older bureaucrats who had close relationships with Bo Xilai anxious.  However, not putting Bo Xilai on trial would make the intellectuals on the right and some other poor people unhappy, as well as many people within the bureaucratic class who were worried about squared accounts from others.  Indeed, this trap set up by Wen Jiabao was very well placed and quite vicious.


Xi Jinping's method to cope with this dilemma was to raise high his right hand to put Bo Xilai on trial, and then let it fall gently.  Right after that, Xi took a series of measures to buy the leftists and "the Red Second Generation".  The most well known action was that he held an unusual big ceremony to commemorate the former deputy Prime Minister Xi Zhongxun (i.e. his own father), making it a big gathering of "the Red Second Generation" as a way to reassure the worrisome bigwigs.


However, whether Xi Jinping's method will work long-term and be effective is hard to say.  The fact that two former friends started fighting, even punching each other, recently during their "Red Second Generation" gathering at the reunion of the famous school in Beijing, illustrates the Chinese saying "three feet of ice cannot came from one chilly day", similar to the Western "Rome was not built in a day."  Xi's reassurances may not be effective, or at least not effective to all people.  Now the buddies of Bo Xilai have started to form political parties following the way of the democracy activists.  This activity is an indication that the whole drama has just started, instead of coming to an end.


While Xi Jinping raised his right hand to fight against leftists, he also raised his left fist to attack the right wing in China.  The most famous action is to attack cyber VIP's in an attempt to annihilate the Internet leaders and gain control of the Internet, the most free media in China that can lead the trend of public opinion.


Unfortunately, the hearts of people have always been difficult to control.  While one could attend on one thing, one will not be able to control others.  In particular, with the situation in China now that the bureaucratic capitalist class has done all the devil things, the Chinese regime does not have credibility.  It is impossible to reverse control public opinion.  Not to mention the government itself, even the intellectual elite of self-claiming representatives of civil society on the right was immediately cast aside by the public once they spoke for the capitalist class.


As the saying goes: those who win the hearts of the people shall win the world.  Clearly, Xi Jinping understood this truth, although his methods were diametrically opposite and missed the main point.  Bo Xilai also understood this truth, yet his methods were diametrically opposite and missed the main point as well.  What is the main point?  That is the common aspiration of the people now.  What is the common aspiration of the people?  There are many of them speaking of truth, but it could be summarized in one sentence: institutional reforms of the system and reasonable sharing of the wealth in China.


Unfortunately, from the actions taken by Xi Jinping in the past year, we know that even if he understands this truth, he does not have the capability to win hearts.  His sway in the past year has not improved his credibility and authority; instead it has made people on both the right and left dissatisfied with a lot of complaints.  Peaceful evolution of political reform in China has already become impossible.


What is coming up in the new year of 2014 is the revolution.  Either Xi Jinping and Wang Qishan take painstaking measures to remediate the bureaucratic capitalist class in China, then there is the possibility of gain people's hearts through taking care of people's livelihood and gradually reforming the political system, or the bureaucratic capitalist class will have a coup to change the leadership, which will increase the pressure and temperature within the giant barrel of gunpowder, until the moment of explosion.


However, the last and most likely possibility is that the Xi Jinping clique has to make compromises to the bureaucratic capitalist class, which soon will lead to full-scale unrest in China.  Given the fact that members of the bureaucratic capitalist class who understand the situation in China best have been emigrating out of China one after another, the upheaval in China is hardly to be avoided.


I hope all kinds of friends get prepared for the arrival of an era of great turmoil.  For our pro-democracy friends, our task will be to shorten the time of unrest and to reduce bloodshed during the turmoil in China.



To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:



(Written and recorded on December 27, 2013.  Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)



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Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A799-W509

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号: A799-W509


Release Date: January 5, 2014



Topic: My New Year's Speech -- Wei Jingsheng

标题:2014新年致辞 -- 魏京生


Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)









-- 魏京生



















从习近平的角度,审判薄熙来不仅会使红二代中很多人不高兴甚至兔死狐悲,占人口相当大比例的左派和穷人也不高兴。此外还包括旧官僚中很多和薄熙来关系密切的人也会惶惶不可终日。 而不审判薄熙来则会让右派知识分子们和另一部分穷人不高兴,其中还包括官僚资产阶级中很多担心被清算的人在内。温家宝这个局可以说做得很到位,也相当恶毒。






























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