Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A807-W517
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A807-W517
Release
Date: February 16, 2014
发布日：2014年2月16日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XCVIII): The Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands Crisis -- Wei
Jingsheng
标题：《中国的出路》之九十八：钓鱼岛危机 -- 魏京生
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The
Way Out for China (Part XCVIII): The Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands Crisis
--
WEI, Jingsheng
Tensions
between China and Japan have been raised for a while. Talk of a war between China and Japan has been very
popular. This talk is not only
popular in China, but is also very popular in Japan. This talk puts the United States in a very awkward
situation: there have been times when it expressed dissatisfaction with the
provocative remarks by the Japanese government, while there have been other
times it officially announced that it would defend Japan. That results not only confused the
Chinese government, but even the Japanese.
There
is a group of people even adding more fuel to the fire. They mysteriously say something like
this year is exactly two Chinese sexagenary cycles after the First
Sino-Japanese War, thus for sure there will be another war breaking out between
China and Japan, and so on. Just
from the point of view from the news, it seems to be the case. Since the Shinzo Abe government of
Japan announced the nationalization of the Diaoyu Islands (i.e. the Senkaku
Islands), the dispute between China and Japan over these islands has been
continually upgraded. The concern
over the misfires of the two sides by the news media is not completely
unfounded.
There
are some Chinese scholars who even analyze plausibly that in the past more than
one century, both risings of China were interrupted by Japan, so now is the
time for revenge -- it must be and will be the time to teach "the little
Japan" a lesson. In other
words, they are inciting the war fever.
On the other side, the opinion is also encouraging the war with the
reasoning that the army of the Communist Party is corrupt and incompetent,
comparable to the army of the Qing Dynasty during the first Sino-Japanese
War. Thus, if China gets into a
war with Japan, the Communist regime will collapse like the Qing Dynasty. In short, both those who like the
Communist Party and those in opposition to the Communist regime are all
agitating that there must be a war in between China and Japan. It seems impossible not to have this
war.
If
we take a look at the motivation of both governments that are inciting war
fever, then perhaps we will be able to analyze if this battle is avoidable or not. The first motivation is that the Abe
government of Japan intends to break the shackles of the peace
constitution. It has been
deliberately and incessantly thinking of this for a long time. It wants to use the dispute over some
uninhabited little islands to create tension, to create a pretext to break the
peace constitution and expand the right of self-defense. Meanwhile, it would be able to improve
its reputation in the frenzy of patriotism and so strengthen its authority in
Japan. The war-talk is one stone
for two birds.
In
the past, whenever the Chinese government encountered such disputes its
consistent action was not to act, but with the excuse of shelving the dispute
in an effort to avoid the conflict with Japan. This time the Abe government assumed the Chinese would do
the same. Unexpectedly, this time
the Xi Jinping government of China has the same need for approval of its
authority. It also needs to take
advantage of the patriotic movement to improve its own reputation in China. It treats this patriotic movement as a
business without the need of investment.
But this reaction puts the Japanese government in a position without
retreat. So, the Japanese
government can only take a hard stand, thus the previous notion of putting
disputes aside for a joint development is broken.
When
the Chinese government put up a tough stance around the disputed islands, the
Japanese government was left with no room to retreat, for it would mean a
crisis within its own domestic politics.
As both sides escalated, the dispute evolved into a crisis, then the
crisis evolved into a danger. What
the media and observers fear is by no means groundless: a war is brewing.
Politicians
on both sides are getting so angry, not really for the small islands, but with
their own calculations. The
strategists of Xi Jinping think that the United States will not intervene when
China enters a war with Japan, or at the most try to mediate and to persuade
the two sides. The possibility of
a nuclear war with China is low.
But the advisers of Abe evaluate the internal weakness of China and
think its military is slack in discipline with reduced combat capacity. In their impression a war with Japan
will jeopardize the survival of the Communist regime in China. They think China is just bluffing
without the guts to start a war.
Therefore, Japan can take the risk.
With
this analysis, we realize that both sides have misjudged each other. The political interests of the both
governments have decided they cannot retreat, so both are escalating gradually
and waiting for concessions from the other. When the confrontation reaches an end without either giving
in, naturally the result will be a war.
Further, with warships and fighter jets so entangled on both sides, no
one could guarantee a complete control of the combat personnel at the
scene. It is possible the
decisions of the highest leaders will not be followed. In the last century, it was not the
decision of the Japanese government for the Japanese army in Manchuria to
launch the attack against China (the Imperial Japanese Army's Kwantung Army
command-in-chief Shigeru Honjo ordered his forces to do so, in violation of
orders from Tokyo). On the Chinese
side today, there is a similar risk.
So
when the war breaks out, what results will both sides get? One possibility which seems to be
relatively small is the participation in the war by the United States, with the
war being conducted mainly in Japanese territory and its territorial waters. China would be defeated, but the war
would unlikely be extended into the territory of China, nor it is possible for
the occupation of China jointly by Japan and the USA.
However,
China 's economy that is relying on the support of international trade will
collapse. Japan too will be
destroyed in the war. Only the
United States will successfully realize its plans to return to Asia. But the heavy burden of war will drag
on the U.S. economy as well, which is also the reason that likely the United
States would not participate in this war.
For
the possibility that the U.S. will not join the war at all, the outcome would
result in a continued stalemate of the war as no one would be able to win over
the other, yet neither side would want to retreat. The economy of both sides would also collapse. The situation in Japan is not better
than China. Meanwhile, the Chinese
Communist regime would also collapse, just as happened in Czarist Russia during
the First World War. The return to
Asia plans of the USA would also be wasted. None of these three sides would get a good result, but
Russia, South Korea, and even North Korea could be benefited from it. However, these benefits would only
occur randomly as opportunities arise, and thus are not in the range of
prediction.
Right
now, the Chinese Communist regime is facing an inextricable internal crisis,
thus it has a relatively strong motivation to take on the risk to initiate a
war. Regardless the outcome in
reality, the war would help maintain the Communist rule of China in the minds
of Communist leadership. Further,
the need for the survival of the Communist Party itself has always been above
the national interest of China. So
as long as the war does not extend into Chinese territory, the Communist
leaders would dare to take this risk.
Regardless
whether China would have a revolution like that in Russia during the First
World War, Japan will be worn down by war for sure. It will not fit the interest of the USA if it looks
unconcerned. From the interests of
all three countries China, the USA, and Japan, as well as the concern for peace
in the Asia-Pacific region, we should prevent this war arising out of
politicians' own interests. The
only one that could stop it is the USA.
The United States must also become a mediator between the two countries
of Japan and China.
Whether
the future China is to be governed by the Communist Party or democrats, this
war would not be conducive to the interests of China 's development and the
average Chinese. We the Chinese
people with a conscience should not rely on the fantasy of the collapse of the
Communist regime through war, but to try our best to prevent this war that
shall destroy the development of China, as well as the peace in Asia. To achieve our historic duty, we would
rather to fight to our own death against the Communist regime, than rely on the
invasion of foreign countries to accomplish it. Such is determined by our own conscience, as well as the
stand that is determined by the self-esteem of the Chinese people.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2014/WeiJS140210DiaoyuIslandsCrisis.mp3
(Written
on February 9 and recorded on February 10, 2014. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A807-W517
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A807-W517
Release
Date: February 16, 2014
发布日：2014年2月16日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XCVIII): The Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands Crisis - Wei
Jingsheng
标题：《中国的出路》之九十八：钓鱼岛危机 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2014/report2014-02/WeiJS140216DiaoyuIslandsCrisisA807-W517.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
《中国的出路》之九十八：钓鱼岛危机
-- 魏京生
中日之间的紧张关系已经很长时间了。据说中日之间必有一战的说法非常地流行：不但在中国流行，在日本也很流行。以至于美国非常尴尬：它一会儿对日本政府的挑衅性言论表示不满，一会儿又正式宣布会保卫日本。结果不仅中国政府，就是日本人也搞不清楚最终会怎么样了。
更有一帮火上浇油的人，神神秘秘地说什么今年是甲午年。一百二十年后又到了甲午年，中国和日本必有一战，云云。单从新闻上看，好像是这么回事。自从安倍政府宣布钓鱼岛国有化之后，中日之间围绕钓鱼岛的争端在不断地升级。新闻界所谓擦枪走火的担忧，不是完全没有根据。
更有学者振振有词地分析，说什么一百多年来中国的崛起两次被日本打断；现在正是报仇雪恨的时候，必须而且必然会好好地教训一下小日本了。换句话说，就是在煽动战争狂热。相反一方面的舆论也在鼓动战争，理由是中共的军队腐败无能，和甲午战争时的清朝军队不相上下。只要和日本打起来，也就像清朝一样很快就垮台。总之，喜欢共产党的和反对共产党的都在鼓动中日必有一战。这战争好像不打都不行了。
咱们先看看双方政府煽动战争狂热的动机，然后才能分析这仗是不是真的就非打不可。首先是日本的安倍政府有意突破和平宪法的束缚，处心积虑已久。它希望利用几个无人小岛的争端制造紧张局势，为突破和平宪法扩大自卫权制造借口。同时在爱国主义的狂热中提高自己的声望，加强自己的权威。一箭双雕。
过去中国政府遇到这种争端，一贯的表现就是借口搁置争议而不作为，避免和日本产生冲突。安倍政府这次也是这么估计的。意外的是这次习近平政府也有同样的需要，也想借助爱国主义运动提高自己的声望，做一笔无本的生意。这一下日本政府就没有了退路，只能硬顶着，把搁置争议共同开发的局面打破了。
当中国政府在有争议的岛屿附近摆出强硬的姿态之后，日本政府也不能后退，后退就意味着国内政治的危机。双方不断地升级，争议就变成了危机，危机很快就变成了危险。媒体和观察家们的担心绝不是空穴来风，一场战争就这样在酝酿着。
双方政治家不是冲冠一怒为小岛，而是有着自己的小算盘。习近平的军师们估计和日本打起来，美国不可能插手。最多也就是劝劝架，调解调解而已。真和中国打一场核战争的可能性不大。而安倍的参谋们估计中国内部虚弱，军纪松弛且战斗力下降。真和日本发生战争将会危及政权的生存，所以中国只是虚张声势，不敢发动战争。所以日本可以冒险。
这样一分析，大家就看出来了，双方都在误判对方。而且政治利益决定了双方都不能后退，只能逐步升级等待对方让步。可是对峙到最后谁也不让步，结果就只能是顺其自然地走向战争。而且双方的军舰和战斗机如此地纠缠，谁也不能保证完全控制现场的作战人员。最高领导者们的决策不是不可能被打破。当年的日本关东军发动对华战争，并不是日本政府的决策。中国方面也有同样的危险。
那么战争一旦发生，对双方会是什么结果呢？一种看上去比较小的可能是美国参战，但是战火主要在日本领土和领海里进行。中国战败，但是战争不太可能延伸到中国境内，也不可能日美联合占领中国。
但是，中国依靠国际贸易支撑的经济将会崩溃，日本也会毁于一片战火之中。只有美国重返亚洲的计划会圆满实现。但是沉重的战争负担也会拖累美国经济，这是美国不太可能参战的原因。
另一种可能是美国不会参战。战争会僵持下去，谁也战胜不了对方，但谁也不愿意后退。双方的经济都会被拖垮。日本的情况不会比中国更好。而中国的共产党政权也将会垮台，就像一次大战时的俄国那样。美国的重返亚洲计划也将泡汤。三方谁也得不到好的结果。可能俄罗斯和韩国，甚至北朝鲜会从中渔利。但这些只能是随机发生，不在预测范围之内。
现在中共正面临着一场无法解脱的内部危机，它冒险发动战争的动机会比较强。无论胜负，战争都会有利于维持中共的统治。这是中共方面的基本估计。而且他们一党生存的需要从来都超过国家利益。只要战火不会延伸到中国国土上，他们敢于冒这个险。
无论中国是否会像当年的俄国那样发生革命，日本是肯定会被战争拖垮。美国的袖手旁观也并不符合美国的利益。从中美日三国的利益考虑，也从亚太地区的和平考虑，应该阻止这场因为政客们的私利出发而产生的战争。有能力阻止它的只有美国。美国必须也应该成为中日两个国家之间的调解人。
无论将来是共产党还是民主派执政，这场战争都不利于中国的发展和老百姓的利益。有良心的中国人不要幻想战争可以导致共产党垮台，而应该努力制止这场毁灭中国发展和亚洲和平的战争。宁可我们自己和共产党拼个鱼死网破，也不要借助外国的侵略完成历史的使命。这是我们的良心决定的，也是中国人的自尊所决定的立场。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2014/WeiJS140210DiaoyuIslandsCrisis.mp3
（撰写于2014年2月9日。录音于2014年2月10日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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