Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A831-W530
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A831-W530
Release
Date: July 19, 2014
发布日：2014年7月19日
Topic:
Is That Patriotism or a Doctrine of Loving the Communist Party? -- Wei
Jingsheng
标题：爱国主义还是爱党主义 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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Is
That Patriotism or a Doctrine of Loving the Communist Party?
--
Wei Jingsheng
In
recent years, the Communist regime in China has changed its foreign policy from
that of the Deng Xiaoping era.
General commentaries consider that the diplomatic tone of the Deng
Xiaoping times was to keep a low profile of "hide our capacity and bide
our time". When there were
issues of territorial disputes and conflicts of interest, the Chinese Communist
Party would take a detour as a way to avoid confrontation. That was their way of exchange for the
tolerance of the international environment, to ensure economic
development. It was like the
redemption diplomacy during the Song Dynasty in China -- export its own
interests in exchange for peace.
During
the Deng Xiaoping era, this tactic was necessary. We can imagine that a Communist dictatorship was naturally
incompatible with the international community, and thus must arouse everyone's
vigilance. If it did not take a
lower profile and grovel like King Goujian of the Yue Country in ancient China
to "hide our capacity and bide our time", how could it fool people
and develop strength in secrecy?
At that time, Deng Xiaoping could only hide his fox's tail and keep a
low profile.
The
general commentaries are that since Xi Jinping took the leadership, China's
strength has been enhanced, and thus can change the status quo of this low
profile strategy of "hide our capacity and bide our time". Therefore, it is really prepared for a
war. Thus, everyone has become
very nervous and is very vigilant.
Is it really different now?
Does Xi Jinping really want to have a war? I doubt it.
From
the external conditions, even if one wants a war, one should concentrate on one
target, instead of entering wars in three directions of east, west and
south. But observe what Xi Jinping
is doing now: he is making trouble with Japan on the east side, has found the
chance to make trouble with the Philippines on the south side, and now is
making provocation with Vietnam.
Does that really look like a war?
It does make these angry youths supporting the Communist regime very
excited on the military Internet sites, even though we are not sure they are
real or not.
Let
us assume that one of these countries indeed has a real war with the Chinese
Communist regime. Then would the
others whom the Chinese Communists angered take no action at all? When one fights on one front, yet lets
others cut from behind, it would be a war that even Napoleon Bonaparte could
not win. I do not think that Xi
Jinping is stupid enough to try it.
Even he is, his advisors should not be. The provocations are obviously being used to fan up the
patriotic mood in China, as a way to ease domestic crises.
In
evaluating the situation in China, there is no reason to go to war either. The social conflicts in China are on
the edge of explosion. The hope of
the Communist leadership to rebuild social trust through fighting corruption
did not have very satisfactory results.
Although some corrupt officials have been arrested, most of them are
untouchables. The arresting of a
small number of corrupt officials to appease the resentment of the people is an
old tactic that was already overused by Mao Zedong in the past. By now, its effectiveness is
diminishing and the intended dramatic effect has turned into farce. The average people look at this
anti-corruption as a show, in an attitude "when two bad dogs are biting
each other, they should only get their mouthful of dog hairs (that is not our
business)." This is no longer
exciting, and cannot divert attention anymore.
Maybe
a war will be able to make excitement and restore the public support? This idea is not only naive, but also
unrealistic. Recent exposed
problems in the Chinese military during the anti-corruption campaign have been
shocking. When the military is
corrupted to this degree, how can it fight in a war? The First Sino-Japanese War 120 years ago was a very good
lesson. That China which seemed to
be absolutely powerful from all aspects easily got defeated very thoroughly,
only because of its official corruption and political backwardness. Thus it changed Asia for the century
that followed, even the history of the world.
The
current China still has official corruption and political backwardness. Even if its military equipment is of a
slight advantage, how could it escape the result of that First Sino-Japanese
War? Therefore, Xi Jinping simply
does not intend to launch a war, but is indeed staging a show to incite a
patriotic movement to alleviate the urgent needs in China. The reason that he dares to take on the
adventure of provocating neighboring countries is because in either victory or
defeat this war will not get inside of China. This certainty is because of changes in the international
environment, not because of how powerful the Chinese Communist Party is.
The
international environment change is that there are no neighboring countries
willing to occupy China. That
would not be in the interest of any country; it would be a burden. Meanwhile, countries such as Japan,
Vietnam, the Philippines, who have had mutual provocations with China also have
the same purpose as the Chinese Communist regime; namely, to solve their own
domestic problems by the means of raising a mood of patriotism. They also have a good grasp of
propriety, so they will stop when it just gets to the thrilling level, but not
to the point of a real fight.
Then
is there no danger? Yes, there
is. Besides Japan, the rule in
China, Vietnam, and the Philippines is not stable. Take China as an example: its internal conflict has been
intense. The soldiers and
officials are cracked down may be desperate enough to take dangerous
approaches; the discontented military personals may also take the risk. Besides to rebel directly, to initiate
foreign wars in order to "stir up troubled waters to catch the fish"
inside of China, is also another way to rebel.
To
rebel in disguise under fanatical patriotism has smaller risk than a direct
revolt. Once the war started, no
one would pay attention to the anti-corruption or a power struggle. The highest authorities must also focus
on international struggles with no time to care about internal rebellion. Whether the war is a victory or a
defeat, it is an affair of the country, not the victory or defeat of the
corrupt officials. Why do they
care? This is the danger of the
so-called "misfire". The
true danger is not the unintentional misfire, but a "misfire"
purposefully planned. There are
similar dangers with Vietnam and the Philippines. The actual situation of different countries is not quite the
same, but the rationality is the same.
Through
the above analysis we can see that there are no disputes of important benefits
between China and its neighboring countries that need to be resolved through
war. Although the purposes are not
quite the same, the politicians of each country are just staging their
political shows; very dangerous political shows that could lead to actual war. This kind of show will not bring any
benefits to the people of any country, but could bring disaster to the people
of all countries when the unexpected happens.
We,
as democrats, are the opposition against the Communist totalitarian
regime. Our task in this complex
situation is not one but two. The
first is to stick to our own mission to fight for democracy, freedom and human
rights, against authoritarian rule.
The second is that we should be careful and not be fooled by the
Communist Party, thus helping our enemies inadvertently.
What
needs special attention under the present situation is to not be swayed by the
so-called patriotic jingoism, and to not fall into the whirlpool of this
"patriotism" and love of the Communist Party which is a trap set up
by the Communist regime to alleviate the conflicts. We do not support the Chinese Communist Party, neither the
Vietnamese Communist Party. Our
friends within the democratic movement should stand firmly against all their
movement of "patriotism and love for Communist Party".
Some
of our friends think they can incite an overthrow of the Communist regime by
taking advantage of the patriotic movement. This action may be too naive, and ultimately can only be
used by the Communist Party. This
opportunistic idea actually underestimates the cunning of the Communist regime
and will only be used by the Communist Party. I hope everyone will be cautious in this regard.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2014/WeiJS140716CCPjingoism.mp3
(Written
and recorded on July 16, 2014.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A831-W530
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A831-W530
Release
Date: July 19, 2014
发布日：2014年7月19日
Topic:
Is That Patriotism or a Doctrine of Loving the Communist Party? -- Wei
Jingsheng
标题：爱国主义还是爱党主义 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2014/report2014-07/WeiJS140719CCPjingoismA831-W530.htm
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爱国主义还是爱党主义
-- 魏京生
近年来中共似乎改变了邓小平时代的外交政策。一般评论认为，邓时代的外交基调是韬光养晦。也就是遇到领土纠纷、利益纠纷都是绕着走，尽量避免对抗。以此来换取国际环境的容忍，保证经济建设。就像宋朝时期的赎买外交，靠向外输送利益换取和平。
这在邓小平时代也是不得不如此。大家可以想见，一个共产党的独裁政权，自然与国际社会格格不入，必然引起大家的警惕。如果不把姿态放得更低一些，不像越王勾践一样卑躬屈膝，怎么能骗过人家偷偷地发展实力呢？当时的邓小平只能藏起狐狸的尾巴，韬光养晦。
因此一般的评论就认为习近平上台以来，中国的实力已经增强了，可以改变韬光养晦的策略。因此而真的准备打仗了。所以大家都十分紧张，时刻警惕着不要擦枪走火。事情真的是这样吗？习近平真的要打仗吗？我看不见得。
从外部条件看，要打仗也要集中在一个目标上，不可能东西南三个方面作战。现在的习近平一会儿弄一弄东边的日本；一会儿弄一弄南边的菲律宾；最近又和越南搞得不亦乐乎。这像是要打仗吗？也就是军网上的愤青五毛们激动万分，而且还不知道是真是假。
假设现在中共真的和其中的一方打起来了，那么其它几个被挑衅的会没有任何动作吗？前边打着，后边还被人家抄了后路。这样的仗就是拿破仑来了也没法打，必败无疑。我看习近平还没有笨到这个地步；即使他笨，他手下的高参们也不至于笨到这个地步。这明摆着就是炒作爱国主义情绪，用来缓解国内的危机。
从国内形势上看，也没有打仗的道理。社会矛盾一触即发，希望靠反腐败来重建社会信任，好像效果十分不理想。贪官污吏抓了一些，但大部分动不得。靠抓少数贪官来平民愤，这个招数早就被毛泽东用老了。现在早已经是效果递减，正剧演成了闹剧。老百姓对反腐只是看热闹，狗咬狗两嘴毛。再也不能激动人心，转移注意力了。
也许打一仗就能激动人心，挽回支持率？这个想法不但天真，而且很不现实。最近的军中反腐败揭露出的问题触目惊心。军队腐败到这个地步，怎么能打仗？120年前的甲午战争，就是个很好的教训。所有方面看上去都绝对强大的中国，只有政治落后加上官场腐败，轻轻松松地就败得非常彻底。因此改变了之后一个世纪的亚洲以至于世界的历史。
现在仍然是政治落后加上官场腐败。即使军事装备上稍占优势，又怎么能逃脱甲午战争的结局呢？所以习近平根本就没有发动战争的打算，确确实实是在作秀，煽动一场爱国主义运动以解国内的燃眉之急。他敢于冒险挑衅周边国家的原因，是无论战胜还是战败，战火都不会燃烧到中国境内。这是国际环境变化造成的，不是因为共产党有多么强大。
所谓的国际环境变化，是周边国家没有愿意占领中国的。那对任何国家都不是利益而是负担。而且和中国互相挑衅的日本、越南、菲律宾，也和中共有相同的目的。这就是借助于高涨的爱国主义情绪解决自己国内的问题。他们也都把分寸掌握得很好，走到惊心动魄就见好就收了，绝不会走到真的打起来的地步。
那就没有危险了吗？不是。除日本之外，中国、越南、菲律宾的统治都不稳定。以中国为例：内部矛盾尖锐激烈，被整肃的军人和官员可能会铤而走险，不满现实的军人也可能会铤而走险。除了直接造反之外，挑起中外战争以便浑水摸鱼，也是造反的另一种方式。
在爱国主义狂热的掩盖下造反，比直接造反风险小。战争一旦发动，就没有人关注反腐败或者权力斗争了。最高当局也必须集中精力于国际斗争，无暇内顾。无论战争是胜还是败，那都是国家的事，而不是贪官污吏的胜败。他们何乐而不为呢？这就是所谓擦枪走火的危险。真正的危险不是无意间的擦枪走火，而是有计划的擦枪走火。越南、菲律宾也有类似的危险。虽然各国的实际情况不尽相同，但道理是一样的。
通过以上的分析可以看出：中国和周边国家并没有重大利益纠纷必须通过战争来解决；而是各国政客虽然目的不尽相同，却都是在做政治秀，而且是非常危险的战争秀。这种政治秀不会给各当事国人民带来任何利益，一不小心还会给各国人民带来灾难。
我们作为民主派，是共产党专制政权的反对派。我们在这种复杂形势下的任务就不是一项而是两项。第一是坚持我们自己的使命，争取民主自由和人权，反抗专制统治。第二就是注意不要被共产党所迷惑，无意间帮助了我们的敌人。
现在的形势下特别需要注意的，就是不要被所谓的爱国主义情绪所左右，不要卷入为共产党缓解矛盾的爱国、爱党的热潮。我们既不支持中国的共产党，也不支持越南的共产党。反对他们所有的爱国爱党运动，这才是我们民主运动的朋友们应该站稳的立场。
有些朋友以为可以利用爱国主义运动煽动推翻共产党。这可能太天真了，最终只能是被共产党所利用。这种投机取巧的想法实际上是低估了共产党的狡猾，只能是被共产党所利用。望大家小心谨慎。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2014/WeiJS140716CCPjingoism.mp3
（撰写并录音于2014年7月16日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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