Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A837-W535

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号: A837-W535


Release Date: September 6, 2014



Topic: The Future of Hong Kong's Struggle for Democracy -- Wei Jingsheng

标题:香港民主斗争的前途 -- 魏京生


Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)



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The Future of Hong Kong's Struggle for Democracy

-- Wei Jingsheng



A few days ago, I had lunches with friends from some think tanks.  During the lunches, we talked about the recent political situation in Hong Kong.  People in Hong Kong are struggling for their basic democratic rights, opposing the People's Congress manipulated by the Chinese Communist regime that forces the fake election mode of Mainland China on Hong Kong.  This struggle is the basic consensus that everyone supports.  The arguments given in different opinions concern the evaluation of the Hong Kong people and the intention of the Communist regime.


Taiwanese politicians and people in American think tanks make the following evaluation: the Hong Kong people have always been known for realism - when they are threatened with a 1989-like bloody crackdown by the Communist regime, they will soon retreat with an outcome of nothing.  This retreat will make their friends around the world who supported them fall into an embarrassing situation, and as a matter of fact, will also result in the democratic process in China going backwards.


From the news we have noticed that some leaders of the democrats in Hong Kong have already issued comments of retraction.  They claimed something like the strategies have failed, and take the retreat as progress, etc.  Obviously, these comments are excuses for their pre-made withdrawal arrangements, and are not like the stance of fearless warriors.


These older people are indecisive with too many things to consider.  In addition, the Communist regime does very well with threats and inducements by taking advantage of people's psychological weaknesses.  Using the regime's own words, they are "doing homework", which they often do without a trace.  Due to lack of evidence at this moment, let us not comment on this issue.  Let us just face the reality.


My and other people's views are that the protection of human rights and the rule of law in Hong Kong have been retreated to a corner with no further place to go.  Most of the Hong Kong people have a sense of crisis already, thus this movement is receiving the support of so many people who come forward.  The Communist regime will "do homework" on a few people, but it is impossible to fool millions of people.  The Hong Kong people who have spines are not just a few.  The courage and determination of the young students is proof.  This movement does not necessarily have to be led by old men.  As the Chinese proverb says: ambition is not measured by age.


There are scary remarks spread with the help of these old men, including a repeat of the June 4 Tiananmen Massacre, as well as about the raid at the home of Jimmy Chee-Ying Lai.  In fact, the illegal raid of the Lai's home, exactly illustrates that the legal system in Hong Kong has been totally destroyed.  If people in Hong Kong make concessions, would the Communist regime forgive the leaders who stirred up trouble against the central government, even though they have retreated?


It would really be the "Chinese dream" that has never happened in the past.  Against his own heart, Liu Xiaobo lied for the Communist regime, yet he still has to stay in jail without freedom.  Till this day, he has yet to see a good end, and has to accept "the humane management of the Chinese prisons" (that he praised of).  Now, people in Hong Kong are struggling for democratic rights they deserve.  They are exposing the Communist regime that violated its own promise, and thus are hated by the Communist regime to the extreme.  Once the Communist regime succeeds, will they let you the leaders go free?


Taxi drivers in Mainland China will laugh when they hear about this.  The intellectual elite in China indeed is as unpromising as the Americans evaluate.  Fortunately, there are still young people serving as the backbone of China.  These young people are not scared of bloody intimidation, and they would use their own flesh and blood to stop the extension of tyrannical draconian laws for the people in Hong Kong.  I admire them.


Will the history of the June 4 Tiananmen Massacre be repeated?  I do not think so.  Hong Kong is not Beijing.  2014 is not 1989.  The world has changed.  China has changed.  The Chinese people have long since ceased their hopes for reform according to the instruction of the central government.  Chinese military personnel have long been deeply ashamed of that June 4 massacre.  Should a massacre be ordered, the disobedience would not be limited to only one person as was the case with General Xu Qinxian in 1989.  Further, there is no Deng Xiaoping in the Communist regime anymore, and no one wants to be Deng Xiaoping either.


So why is the Communist regime behaving in such a hardliner way this time?  Some people say that it is consistent with the typical behavior of the Communist regime.  This statement is correct, but not in depth.  Some people do not see the fierce infighting within the Communist regime and its consistent shameless tactics, thus they are scared when they are threatened with the bloodshed of the June 4 Massacre in 1989.


According to my observation, it is not so.  This time, it does not look like a decision of the highest authority in Beijing to move three years ahead to provoke the sensitive nerve of the Hong Kong people.  Since Xi Jinping took over power, his clique has stirred up more than enough trouble.  Regardless whether infighting or outfighting, they have to go all out.  Where do they have the time and energy to move three years ahead to look for trouble in Hong Kong?


Do not open more than two fronts" is a basic principle of the military.  Xi Jinping had already violated this taboo, yet now opens the third front from nothing?  I think that he would not have become the Secretary-General of the Communist Party, but to the most become Premier Li Peng, if he was that foolish.  Examing Xi's history, he is not the kind of fool Li Peng was.


So why is there this matter in Hong Kong now?  The analysts in Hong Kong seem to have collective brain damage.  They were analyzing the infighting of the Communist Party every day with such a hype that seemed to be clear and logical with spittle flying around.  Yet, when the wolf really arrived, they seem to not quite know about it?  On the surface, the conflict in Hong Kong this time is the conflict between the Communist regime and people in Hong Kong.  Yet in reality, it is due to the internal fighting within the Communist Party.  Someone is trying to kill his own enemy with other people's swords.


The media has been saying every day that the tough handling of anti-corruption by Xi Jinping and Wang Qishan will cause the rebellion of the corrupted Chinese officials.  But before a rebellion involves the military, there are still many ways to rebel sneakily.  Setting a trap to flip the wagon is one of the commonly used conspiracy techniques.


This provoking incident in Hong Kong is by no means a current priority for the Xi Jinping clique.  As Xi is trying to fight outwards against foreign countries and meanwhile punishing officials inside China, there is no room to change the Basic Law and make trouble with people in Hong Kong.  Such action is purely raising obstacles for nothing.  Yet, in the authoritarian Communist theory, it is plausible, reasonable and legitimate.  After some controversy, the accident in Hong Kong happened.


The Communist organizations in Hong Kong have become the vanguard for this incident.  It has been said that their corruption level is far beyond what the corrupted officials on the Mainland could be compared with.  Just to get the title as a member of the Political Consultative Committee would result in tens of millions of profits.  Now the anti-corruption movement is targeted at them.  Of course they would put up a fight.  Thus they offer their advice to the corrupted officials on the Mainland to stir up the issue in Hong Kong, then to spread out the military they control to prepare for a new bloodshed like the June 4 Tiananmen Massacre in 1989.


Xi Jinping and Wang Qishan would have to take the political responsibility for this.  It is a clever means to have a “peaceful evolution” of the Communist leadership towards a bad direction.  When people in Hong Kong retreat, it proves that the estimation of these corrupt officials is correct.  Even if they cannot over power Xi Jinping, carrying on the fight against the democrats in Hong Kong will become the inevitable.


If people in Hong Kong persist without compromise, a massacre could lead the stepping down of Xi Jinping.  So Xi Jinping has to come forward to settle the situation, even though at the expense of destroying the principle of divided duties within the Communist regime.  Further, there is the readily available reasoning: the Basic Law expressly stating a nominating committee that must be broadly representative.  It is very normal not to modify the interpretation.  Thus a crisis could have a justifiable peaceful settlement.


I think this is the most likely outcome.  I despise the old men who escaped like chickens and admire these young people who are path breakers.  The futures of the corrupt officials are not promising.



To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:



(Written on September 3 and recorded on September 4, 2014.  Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)



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Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A837-W535

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号: A837-W535


Release Date: September 6, 2014



Topic: The Future of Hong Kong's Struggle for Democracy -- Wei Jingsheng

标题:香港民主斗争的前途 -- 魏京生


Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)









-- 魏京生




















































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