Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A910-W591

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A910-W591

Release Date: January 16, 2016

发布日：2016年1月16日

Topic: A New Situation in the New Year (part 2) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：新年新形势(之二) -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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A New Situation in the New Year (part 2)

-- Wei Jingsheng

(Written and recorded on December 30, 2015. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

From the expulsion of the French reporter Ursula Gauthier, we can perceive Xi Jinping's plan to control public opinion. Since Xi Jinping came to power, nothing seems going smoothly for him, economically, politically, and diplomatically. Previously he pinned his hope on an anti-corruption campaign, thus defrauding the support of some people. But soon people realized that the campaign was false -- in fact it was his way to remove his dissidents through a selective way of anti-corruption, and therefore the people's support he received started to drop.

What followed was the counterattack of the corrupt officials, including a panic mood by everyone of the bureaucratic class. In the recent Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping did not realize the dictatorship he wanted, but was made disappointed and depressed. Thus, he has to put his hopes on controlling military power and controlling the media. If he were successful on both, it would be possible for him to control the situation in the short term.

Unfortunately, in my opinion, these are unlikely. Just like everything in the past three years has not been going smoothly for him, these actions will not be smooth. That is because his basic ideas are wrong, so even though the fine details are done delicately and accurately, the result would still be wrong to a degree that is irreparable.

For example, Xi relies on punishing foreign correspondents to control public opinion. We can recall the era of Mao Zedong, to see if he won a favorable public opinion through punishing foreign correspondents. What Mao Zedong relied on was to make the Western public opinion more Marxist, or left-oriented, in addition with fully control the domestic media and surround the foreign reporters completely. This approach made the international public opinion of that time unable to see any of the domestic situation in China; yet to produce reports, they had to cite largely from the Communist Party's newspaper.

Now the situation is completely different. The public opinion of the world has reversed from sympathy to the Communist Party to disgust with the Communist Party. Even the people on the left do not like the Communist Party anymore. They tried to draw a line to avoid being implicated by the authoritarian systems of the communist countries. Even the people of the communist countries have long abandoned the lies of the communism. Xi Jinping has the delusion to revive the Communist Party by the propaganda tune of the 1950's. This effort will only meet the Chinese ancient fables such as: "to drill the wood hoping to catch the fish"; and "to mark the boat in search of the sword that fell into the river". It looks just like a joke.

Now the Internet and social media are so advanced, with updates every passing day. Without being stationed in Beijing or leaving home, one can still know events of the whole world. Public opinion domestically and internationally has formed as a whole, and is maintaining a strong trend that is unstoppable. The Internet police of Xi Jinping have also met one ancient fable in China, which is "the mantis raises its arm in an effort to stop the carriage". No matter how much money Xi Jinping funds his mantis' arm in an effort to maintain stability, a mantis' arm is only a mantis' arm that cannot stop the carriage. Even with the arms of many mantis one still can not stop the wheel of history, which can not be changed by one person's will.

Another example is the current "military reform" in China. "Military reform" has become the most popular term in the media recently. A minimum of thought will realize such reform is just for the purpose of controlling military power through ways of playing magic. Things were changed from this to that, guards were moved from here to there, all are just excuses to clear the house of dissidents in a large scale while cultivating cronies. This rearrangement will inevitably lead to military instability, even uprising. To the least, it will result a sharp decline of military fighting power. There are numerous precedents in history already.

Does the Chinese military need reform? Of course it is indeed needed. But first and foremost, the military needs a stable morale. What is the primary condition to have a stable morale in the military? That is to know whom they are and what they are suppose to do. In the era of the Communist Party when it was still popular, the Schutzstaffel nature of the Communist army was recognized and agreed to by its military officials and soldiers. As the illusion of the Communist Party has disappeared, especially with a very strong recognition of the state and national identity, could Xi Jinping's desire to restore the military back to the nature of the Schutzstaffel be agreed to with the recognition of the vast majority of officers and soldiers? The results can only be demoralization, with rebellious moods becoming popular.

In the past when Chinese were poorly educated, Yuan Shikai could gather support from the military by advocating enough food to eat if one joins the army, thus creating a private army. During the eras of Chiang Kai-shek and Mao Zedong, private armies were still very popular. The SS system that the Chinese learned from the Soviet Union was more suitable to meet soldiers' qualities of that time. It replaced the outdated private army, and was able to deal with the Japanese army that was more like an army of the country, for as long as eight years.

After a lapse of more than half a century, the quality of modern people and military personnel has greatly improved, with rising national consciousness in people's hearts. The continuing SS system has been departing from the self-identity of the people and the military personnel. This is the main reason that the morale in the military has been falling apart in the past decades. The corruption of military officials is also a consequence from decline of identity, rather than the cause. The civil officials love money, and so do the military officials. Countries like this would perish for sure, whether ancient or modern, in China or elsewhere in the world.

Can patriotism be educated out? No. First the system of this country must be recognized by its people, and thus be able to improve the sense of recognition through education, leading the effect of consistent ideology. There is no political commissar and no political officers in the US military, yet its soldiers remain with a clear and unified political goal - fighting for their country and their people is not something they need to think about and to doubt.

Regardless how Xi Jinping tries to change in his "military reform", he is still strengthening his SS system. Now the people do not recognize the corruptive one-party authoritarian system of the Communist Party anymore, how the slogan of "fighting for the Communist Party" will still be able to gather people's hearts? I am afraid that goal will be less consistent than the mercenaries who fight for money. Xi's military reform, inevitably will degenerate the SS army into private armies. This is the real chaos-creating action of usurping the military, that also makes a foundation for others to usurp the military and to create chaos.

As the economy in China declines further, the social conflicts in China will deteriorate further as well. With the selective anti-corruption campaign becoming more and more cruel, internal fighting within the Communist officialdom will intensify. With the diminishing effect of money spread abroad, money diplomacy will be less and less effective, while international conflict becomes increasingly acute. This is the new situation in the New Year for Xi Jinping.

The countermeasure policies of Xi Jinping could only focus on domestic affairs. He should set further back externally: giving up the sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, while repairing the relationship with the United States in order to get the cooperation of the United States and Europe in his economic adjustment, or at least not enter economic confrontation with them.

This direction requires at the same time gradually establishing a democratic system and restoring the rule of law. Otherwise he will remain the opposition against the Western democracies, with both politics and the economy remaining in mismatch states to the Western countries. As the Western countries lose their need to fight against the Soviet Union, their tolerance toward China will gradually disappear. Thus both the dividends from being anti-USSR and having a low human rights standard will cease to exist. This also the new situation in the New Year for Xi Jinping.

If he does not want to take this path but continues his path of one-party dictatorship, he will only run into a dead end.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2015/WeiJS151230NewYear2.mp3

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A910-W591

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A910-W591

Release Date: January 16, 2016

发布日：2016年1月16日

Topic: A New Situation in the New Year (part 2) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：新年新形势(之二) -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2016/report2016-01/WeiJS160116NewYear2A910-W591.htm

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新年新形势(之二)

-- 魏京生

（撰写并录音于2015年12月30日。自由亚洲电台播出。）

从驱逐法国记者的事件中，我们察觉到了习近平政权控制舆论的计划。习近平掌权以来似乎什么都不顺：经济不顺，政治不顺，外交也不顺。先前他把希望寄托在反腐上，骗取了一些民众的支持。但很快就让人们察觉到虚假不实--选择性反腐实际上是清除异己，因此民气大降。

紧接着就是贪官污吏们的反击，包括官僚阶层的人心惶惶。在最近的中央全会上，他没有实现独裁，反而弄得有点灰头土脸，只好把希望寄托在掌握军权和修理媒体舆论上边了。如果这两项都顺利的话，在短期内掌控局势应该是可能的。

遗憾的是，在我看来这都不太可能。就像他三年来每一件事都不顺一样，这次仍然会不顺。因为他的基本思路就是错的，细节做得再精致、再准确也还是错的，错得无可挽回。

例如他想靠修理外国记者来控制舆论。我们可以回想一下：毛泽东时代是靠修理外国记者获得了舆论优势的吗？他靠的是西方舆论马克思化，或者说左倾化；加上完全控制了国内媒体并且包围了外国记者。这使得当时的国际舆论完全看不见中国国内的状况，为了写报道不得不大量引用共产党的报纸。

现在的情况完全不同了。世界舆论早就从同情共产党，逆转到了厌恶共产党。包括左派也不再喜欢共产党，而是尽量划清界线，以免被共产党国家的独裁专制所牵连。就连共产党国家的老百姓也早就抛弃了共产主义的谎言。习近平妄想靠五十年代的那一套宣传调子来重振共产党，正应了那几句古代寓言：缘木求鱼，刻舟求剑。看上去就是笑话。

现在的互联网和社交媒体这么发达，而且日新月异。不用驻在北京，也可以秀才不出门，全知天下事。国内外舆论结成一体，是挡也挡不住的强烈趋势。习近平的网警队伍也应了一句古代寓言，叫做螳臂当车。无论再往螳臂维稳经费上加多少钱，螳臂当车就是螳臂当车。螳臂再多也挡不住历史的车轮，这叫不以人们的意志为转移。

再例如军队改革，简称军改，是最近最热闹的媒体名词。用脚后跟思考都看得出来，这是在玩变戏法，目的就是掌握军权。这个改成那个，这些下去那些上，不过是大范围的清除异己，培植亲信。这必然引起军心不稳，甚至兵变，起码也是战斗力急剧下降。历史上已有无数先例。

军队是不是需要改革体制呢？确实需要，但首先是军心要稳。稳定军心的首要条件是什么呢？是要知道自己是什么，为什么打仗。在共产党还很得民心的时代，党卫军的性质能得到官兵的认同。在党的幻觉已经消失，国家民族认同感十分强烈的形势下，习近平想恢复党卫军的性质，能和广大官兵的认同相符合吗？结果只能是军心涣散，逆反盛行。

在文化素质较低的过去，袁世凯可以靠当兵吃粮来笼络军心，创造了私人军队。蒋介石和毛泽东的时代，私人军队仍然很盛行。从苏联学来的党卫军制度，更适合当年的军人素质。它取代了不合时宜的私人军队，并且和国家军队性质的日本军队周旋了八年之久。

时隔半个多世纪之后，现代人民和军人的素质已经大大提高，国家民族意识已经深入人心。继续党卫军的体制已经脱离了人民和军人的认同，这是几十年来军心涣散的主要原因。军官腐败也是认同感下降的后果，而不是原因。文官爱钱，武官也爱钱。古今中外这样的国家必将灭亡。

爱国主义是教育出来的吗？不是。首先必须是这个国家的体制得到人民的认同，教育才能起到提高认同感，导致思想一致的效果。美国的军队没有政委和政治军官，军人的政治目标仍然清晰统一--为国家和人民而战，是不需要思考和怀疑的。

习近平的军改无论怎么改，都还是强化党卫军体制。大多数人民已经不认同共产党的一党专制腐败体制了，为党而战还能够聚拢人心吗？恐怕还不如为钱而战的雇佣军目标一致。习近平的军队改革，必然会沦为把党卫军退化成私人军队。这是真正的乱军篡权，也为别人乱军篡权打下了基础。

随着经济进一步下滑，社会矛盾也会进一步恶化。随着选择性反腐败越来越残酷，中共官场内斗越演越烈。随着大撒币的效果递减规律，金钱外交越来越失灵，国际矛盾越来越尖锐。这就是习近平的新年新形势。

习近平集团的应对之策，只能是集中精力办好国内事务；对外则进一步退缩，放弃南海、东海的主权争议，与美国修好。以求在经济调整中得到美国和欧洲的合作，至少不要进入经济对抗。

这同时需要逐步建立民主制度，恢复法制。否则就仍然是与西方民主对立，政治经济都无法对接而处于不匹配的状态。没有对抗苏联的需要，西方国家的容忍度会逐渐消失，抗苏红利加上低人权红利都将不复存在。这也是习近平的新年新形势。

不想走这条路，还想一党专政，就只能是死路一条。