Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A979-W631



Release Date: December 18, 2016



Topic: The China-USA Economic and Trade Relations During the Trump Times -- Wei Jingsheng

标题:川普时代的中美经贸关系 -- 魏京生


Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)



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The China-USA Economic and Trade Relations During the Trump Times

-- Wei Jingsheng



On January 20 next year, the Trump era will begin.  During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly said that the first thing to do after he took office was to withdraw from the "Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement", which is commonly known as TPP.  His reason is that this agreement will further lead to the economic recession in the USA, and loss even more job opportunities.  Hillary Clinton also had the same promise during the election campaign, so whoever came to power would withdraw from the TPP.


Most of the media think it is normal for United States politicians not to carry out what they promised, so they still hold hope of Hillary Clinton.  They all believe that it will be a disaster when Donald Trump comes to power, and free trade will no longer exist.  Thus they deduce that the United States will lose the dominance of the world economy, while China will become a rule-maker.  Alas, the end of the world.


I think this is again the big business in Europe and the USA fooling the whole world with the most media that they are controlling.  The presidential election of the USA fully exposed the monopoly and manipulation they had on the news media, even to the manipulation of the polls, thus they have lost their credit.  One can see these big fools are indeed untrustworthy.


These large business enterprises use the Chinese cheap labor and the US market to earn excess profits, and have enjoyed over a decade of heavenly-like good days.  Their policy is to protect their paradise.  But more than 90 percent of the American middle class and the poor have been gradually slipping down to hell.  This time the big surprise coming out of the ballot is the reflection of this situation.


People have had growing disbelief in Washington politicians who talk well but cannot be counted on, because the majority voters in the United States are increasingly unable to endure this slip toward hell.  Obama's shouting slogan "change" tricked the American people to give him eight years, which caused much fewer people who still believe what Hillary Clinton vowed anymore.  Those people who voted for Donald Trump were not the more fashionable young people and African Americans, but the middle-aged and old-aged whites in pain and think why.  Without a change from the current situation, they are worried even their pensions and health insurance will be a problem.


Will quitting the TPP result in the USA really losing its domination on trade rules?  This argument is really poles apart and outrageously wrong.  People with a little common sense of trade know that for more than ninety percent of the goods, it is the buyer's market.  That is to say who holds the market, who will have the initiative and is the rule-maker.


China's market is very small.  It mainly relies on cheap labor and a semi-closed import market to make money.  With the premise of no improvement of human rights, the domestic market in China cannot be expanded.  After Donald Trump takes the President's office, with the premise that the USA also becomes the same type of semi-closed market China will lose most of the market.  A considerable number of business enterprises in China will have to go bankrupt, a considerable number of workers in China will be unemployed.


Some people bickered: But we still have that so and so alternative agreement with other countries.  This is really what we call "dreams from the Spring and Autumn Dynasty" - very unrealistic.  Besides the USA, who would provide you with such a big market?  When you play the games with a bunch of small and poor countries that all want to close their own markets yet take advantage of China, the results would be these alternative agreements would soon became wasted paper, any rule will be useless.


The Japanese, who are well known for their intelligence, are never stupid enough to join such an agreement.  Even if they joined, they would quit after they cannot endure it for just a few years.  That is because Japan does not have a big market like the United States, and cannot stand this kind endless unfair trade.  Even before Donald Trump takes office, Japan had already taken the lead to abolish the special preferential trade system with China and other countries, to take the preparatory work in advance.  Using a Chinese phrase, it is called the person is smarter than a monkey when the monkey hair was glued on him - very smart!


Is the Communist regime with its Xi Jinping as its core really ready to fight stubbornly?  Xi Jinping does not have that capital.  To confront a decrease in trade, he can only greatly increase the income of the working-class in China in order to absorb the excess domestic production capacity.  In so doing, the capitalists would be made unhappy and a large number of enterprises may go bankrupt.  This is another kind of economic and political turmoil.


So Xi Jinping can only open the import market in exchange for Trump's understanding and thus not completely closing the US market.  One of the major advantages of opening up the import market is to rapidly increase the speed of industrial upgrading in China so that it can adapt to the fair trade market after it is opened, instead of encountering a large number of rapid bankruptcies resulting in severe economic and social unrest.  As for the extent and speed of opening, it depends on whether that old Mr. Trump will accept it or not.  This prediction is hard to be calculated because the initiatives are in the hands of the others.


Another person will bicker: cheap labor is our long-term advantage, the United States cannot beat us for this.  Do not tell us about human rights.  These workers should feel lucky to have some wages to take back home, when we make big money.  Do you not say it takes three generations to develop the aristocracy?  We are just about to become nobles after three generations and you should not be jealous and hate us.


This kind of stupid generation can become nobles after three generations?  I deeply doubt it.  Do you think that the Americans will not know if you do not raise wages?  When the United States seizes the initiative to continuously close its import market, Xi Jinping will not be able to continue.  Without expansion of the Chinese domestic market, it will not be beneficial to the Americans.  Then it would be difficult for the Communist regime in China to achieve its goal of delay tactics on the economy.


Not expanding the domestic market will be even more negative to the domestic enterprises trying to adapt to the fair trade.  As a matter of fact, the small domestic market is already a bottleneck of the economy in China.  When one is stupid, it does not mean the others are stupid as well.  I think only these flatterers who work for the Communist media and lay experts fed for years would give stupid analyses about the domestic market in an effort to please their bosses. 


I want to warn again, do not take any illusions about so-called alternative agreements.  As I just said, one stupid person does not mean all the others are stupid as well.  By spreading money all over the world, one cannot get a shred of true friendship.  As one plays the role of a "great" country, the other would just take advantage of it, as one had taken advantage of the USA.  For the most vicious ones, friendship is far less beneficial than benefits.  When you wake up from so and so alternative agreements, the others have already made enough good deal from you and got ahead of you.


At that time, people have enough reason to laugh at a stupid one who would be so poor not to have enough food, yet still spreading his money in his "emperor 's new clothes".  From this aspect, we really see the continuity of the Communist Party from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping, or using Xi's own words, the "tendons are connected even when the bones are broken".  If we use the common Chinese verbs, which may not sound very elegant, it is called "the dogs can not change their nature of eating the poop."



To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:



(Written and recorded on November 28, 2016.  Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)



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Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A979-W631



Release Date: December 18, 2016



Topic: The China-USA Economic and Trade Relations During the Trump Times -- Wei Jingsheng

标题:川普时代的中美经贸关系 -- 魏京生


Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)









-- 魏京生

















有人抬杠说:我们还有那个什么什么替代性的协议呢。这可真的是那个叫春秋大梦的什么什么玩意儿了。除了美国谁能给你提供那么大的市场呢?和一帮小穷国玩,大家都封闭进口市场还想占便宜 。不用多久什么什么协议就成了一张废纸了,制定什么规则都没用。





























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