Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A977-W629

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A977-W629

Release Date: December 7, 2016

发布日：2016年12月7日

Topic: Suggestions on the Future Sino-US Economic and Trade Relations and the Reasons (Wei Jingsheng's Testimony at the CECC Hearing Today)

标题：有关今后中美经贸关系的建议及其缘由（魏京生在美国国会及行政当局中国委员会听证会上的证词）

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Suggestions on the Future Sino-US Economic and Trade Relations and the Reasons

-- Wei Jingsheng's Testimony at the CECC hearing "Dissidents Who Have Suffered for Human Rights in China: A Look Back and A Look Forward"

December 7, 2016

When Donald Trump becomes president of the USA, he is planning to abolish the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) and began a trade war with China in order to save the US economy. Some people say that this is a disaster, I would say that this is the right way that should have started even earlier. The reality after sixteen years well explain my position: granting China permanent MFN (Most Favored Nation) status, that is PNTR (Permanent Normal Trade Relationship), was a huge mistake. It did not promote the development of the US economy, but was a blood transfusion from the USA to the Chinese economy. It gave China the opportunity to engage in trade war with the United States.

The reason is as follows. The so-called free trade, refers to a unified law based on the domestic market, thus allowing free trade. Such free trade can be carried out normally between countries with similar legal systems. There cannot be normal free trade between countries with completely different legal systems.

For example, after trade with China liberated, there were two main problems: one was cheap labor, one was its uncertain laws that always change.

Since Chinese law does not guarantee human rights, it is able to keep labor prices at a very low level. This has led to the relocation of US companies to foreign countries, while also allows Chinese goods entering the US market with low prices, resulting in unfair competition. It is an important cause of unemployment in the United States.

China's precarious legal system creates serious non-tariff barriers. Any local government can develop their own laws and regulations, without the need to implement the signed treaties and agreements between the Chinese central government and foreign countries. So they can actually close their targeted import market. Coupled with the manipulation of the currency by the Chinese central government, these actions increased exports and created a huge trade surplus for China. This is an important reason causing the economic recession in the USA.

Some people say: for the USA, fighting a trade war with China will end in defeat, at best a lose-lose result. I think such statements are to confuse the US policy makers. I think the USA will win this trade war, while China can only succumb to the rules developed by the United States, otherwise it will accelerate the collapse of the Chinese Communist regime. My reasons are as follows.

First: Now the vast majority of goods are in the buyers' markets. The United States holds the markets, thus it has the power to develop rules, instead of forcing itself to comply with that so-called global free trade rule that cannot be enforced. The United States can formulate its own fair trade rules, to replace the invalid so-called free trade rules.

Second: the Chinese domestic market is narrow and cannot afford the disaster of losing the US market. So China can only compromise on the rules thus to protect part of the market share.

Third: in the past, due to over-expansion of export production of shoddy goods, the quality of Chinese enterprises is very poor. In order to adapt to a fair market in the competition, Chinese companies must quickly upgrade. Thus there will be a great demand for technology and services from the United States to open up the import market in the USA. This will help expand US exports and reduce its trade deficit with China.

Fourth: After improving human rights in China, the income of the Chinese working class will increase, therefore the domestic consumer market will expand. This expansion would benefit US exporters after fair trade, thereby reducing the US trade deficit and even eliminating it.

So I think that the USA will win this trade war, and in the long run will also be beneficial to the economic normalization in China. China must accept and should accept it.

Thank you!

Related photos of Mr. Wei Jingsheng and the CECC hearing:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2016/newsletters2016-4/CECChearing161207onChina-c-5.jpg

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2016/newsletters2016-4/WeiJStestifies161207atCECChearing-c-5.jpg

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A977-W629

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A977-W629

Release Date: December 7, 2016

发布日：2016年12月7日

Topic: Suggestions on the Future Sino-US Economic and Trade Relations and the Reasons (Wei Jingsheng's Testimony at the CECC Hearing Today)

标题：有关今后中美经贸关系的建议及其缘由（魏京生在美国国会及行政当局中国委员会听证会上的证词）

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2016/report2016-12/WeiJStestimony161207CECChearingA977-W629.htm

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有关今后中美经贸关系的建议及其缘由（2016年12月7日星期三在美国国会及行政当局中国委员会“在中国遭受人权迫害的异议人士的回顾和期待”听证会上的证词）

-- 魏京生

川普就任总统后会取消TPP并且开始对中国的贸易战，以此拯救美国的经济。有些人说这是个灾难，我要说这是早就应该开始的正确做法。十六年来的事实说明：给予中国永久的最惠国待遇，也就是PNTR是一个巨大的错误。它没有促进美国经济的发展，反而是美国在向中国经济输血，是给了中国向美国进行贸易战的机会。

道理如下。所谓的自由贸易，是指在统一法律基础上的国内市场上，才能够进行的自由贸易。在法律制度相似的国家之间，也可以正常进行自由贸易。在法律制度完全不同的国家之间，不可能有正常的自由贸易。

例如对中国的贸易自由化之后，存在着两个主要的问题：一个是廉价劳动力，一个是可变化的不确定的法律。

由于中国的法律不保障人权，所以能够把劳动力价格维持在极低的水平。这促使美国企业迁往国外；同时还容许中国产品以低廉的价格进入美国市场，造成不公平的竞争。这是造成美国人失业的重要原因。

中国不稳定的法律体系造成严重的非关税壁垒。任何地方政府都可以制定自己的法律、法规，而不必执行中央政府和外国签订的条约和协议。因此可以实际上有针对性地封闭进口市场，加上中国的中央政府操纵货币，加大出口，制造出巨大的贸易顺差。这是导致美国经济衰退的重要原因。

有人说：美国和中国打贸易战必败，至少是两败俱伤。我认为这是在迷惑美国的决策者。我认为这场贸易战美国必胜，中国只能屈服于美国制定的规则，否则将加速中国共产党政权的崩溃。理由如下。

第一：现在绝大多数商品是买方市场。美国掌握着市场，美国就有制定规则的权力，而不必强迫自己遵守那个无力执法的所谓全球自由贸易的规则。美国可以制定自己的公平贸易法则，代替无效的所谓自由贸易法则。

第二：中国的国内市场狭窄，无法承受失去美国市场的灾难。所以中国只能在规则上妥协，以保护一部分市场份额。

第三：过去由于超速扩大出口生产，粗制滥造，中国的企业素质很差。为了在竞争中适应公平的市场，中国企业必须快速进行企业升级。这就对美国的技术和服务有极大的需求，从而开放对美国的进口市场。这有利于扩大美国的出口，减少贸易赤字。

第四：改善人权后，中国工薪阶层的收入会增加，国内消费市场会扩大。这将对公平贸易后的美国出口商有利，从而减少美国的贸易赤字，甚至消灭贸易赤字。

因此我认为这场贸易战美国必胜，而且从长远看对中国的经济正常化也有利。中国必须接受也应该接受。