Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A986-W637

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A986-W637

Release Date: February 19, 2017

发布日：2017年2月19日

Topic: Is a Sino-US Trade War Necessary (part II)? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：再论中美贸易战是必须的吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Is a Sino-US Trade War Necessary (part II)?

-- Wei Jingsheng

Last week we talked about the Sino-US trade war. Recently we saw a good reaction from the Chinese government. Its largest official media, People's Daily, published an article saying that the best way between China and the United States is to cooperate instead of fighting a trade war, which would be unfavorable to both sides. This article can be interpreted as a kinder response from the Communist regime, or at least from some of the more intelligent leaders.

But, I suspect that now the Chinese leader Xi Jinping has an expansionist ambition, to grab all the power and to become a real dictator. He hastily arrests the people with liberal ideas to control the space of speech. At the same time, he arrests the dissidents within the Communist Party, and replaces them with his own cronies. These actions are quite big, with a strong inertia. It seems not easy to make a sudden stop for something else.

In addition, making a stop for something else will give the excuse for his opposition within the Communist leadership. It could result in resistance and even a collapse of his plan of dictatorship during the upcoming 19th Congress of the Communist Party. Will he give himself the chance to become the second Mao Zedong for the benefit of China and the Chinese people? This is an issue.

A lot of crappy people from the news media are still waiting for President Trump to began a trade war. In fact it has begun. Recently, the United States has added heavy taxes to products from China. This is only a test before a larger-scale trade war, to give a serious warning to China: what means do you have to strike me back? The market is in my hands.

As Xi Jinping has expanded his dictatorial will, his imperial advisors will figure out what he wants and persuade him with the argument that now we have such a big GDP, with such a big domestic market in China, we are able to have a fight against the USA. Especially as the 19th CCP Congress is approaching, we can not give way at this key time and must fight.

With that attitude the well-being of the Chinese people and the national interests are all gone, replaced by the interests of a small group as the most important. The dictator gave order thus China has also started to demand additional taxes on US products that already had very high tax rates. So it is China starting this trade war. By adding tax on the existing tax, these tariff barriers have become an addition to the non-tariff barriers which have already been implemented for many years in China. The Communist regime is initiating a trade war in the open, which creates a good reason for Donald Trump to start an official trade war.

President Trump has sufficient evidence to add a countervailing duty to Chinese steel products, which no one should feel unreasonable. Even the anti-Trump demonstrators did not say anything about it being unreasonable. Would they not to use if these were unreasonable reasons? After all, the demonstrators are not people simply making nonsense, but include people giving money from behind with strategy.

Now the anti-Trump people are staring at the president. As Chinese deputy commander Lin Biao once said: if the condition is not ready, then create the condition to be ready to move on. So President Trump has yet to make a big move, with caution and hesitation. But this window is very small, as the troublemakers could get tired and the people behind could get impatient. The middlemen from Xi Jinping will be found out.

At that time, President Trump will release his killer weapon. By then Xi's negotiations would be a bit late; at least the price will have plummeted. There will be no room to negotiate, but only to pay the asking price. So it is important for China to sit down and start negotiations with the USA now, which might get some opportunity to ease the trade war and some time to reform the political and economic system in China, including the legal system and the many non-tariff barriers.

But who is such a wise man in the current Communist leadership? Who has the ability and courage to persuade this quasi-dictator Xi and give him a splash of cold water to wake up from his dreams? Even if there is such a person who is really trying to persuade Xi Jinping, the flatterers will take no hesitation to name the person a traitor, to knock him to the ground then set a foot on his neck. After all, for Xi Jinping his plan to become a dictator during the CCP's 19th Congress is the most important.

There is also another possibility. Some of the wiser but used to being submissive people will say let us maintain this status quo, without fighting back or compromising, until the opening of the 19th Congress. This handicapped mentally may more likely get the approval from Xi Jinping. It is said that Xi Jinping is more shrewd about detailed tactics, but more handicapped in the overall strategy, so he will be more likely to accept the more mentally handicapped suggestions.

But this is only a wishful thinking that cannot be counted on. The problem is that Xi is on his track while Trump is on his own. Will President Trump patiently wait for the start of a trade war when it is the right time for Xi? That would take the IQ of someone in kindergarten. The so-called test can be immediately turned into a fight between the sentinels, and soon have the size of the trade war. After all, President Trump must get the rapid results in reducing the imports of Chinese goods and reducing the trade deficit. The American people are watching. The troublemakers are waiting.

As Sun Tzu stated in his "Art of War": be as quiet as what we expect from a virgin girl, move fast as a rabbit running for its life. It is said that President Trump's advisers like this "Art of War". So it is thought that President Trump is quietly playing a trick of provocation, which may even give an upper hand like boiling the frog from cold water, to force the opening of a trade war initiated by China. So it is impossible to play the tactics of delay, by thinking how stupid Americans are.

The US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis recently said in Japan there is no need to start a war in the South China Sea yet: "What we have to do is exhaust all efforts, diplomatic efforts, to try and resolve this properly." This made the fanatic patriotic youths in China become very excited as they interpret that Americans backed off. This misunderstanding is really dumbfounding. When Mattis said that it was not necessary yet, it also meant they will be ready when it is necessary. Waiting for a diplomatic solution is to say: besides the one-China policy there is a second bargaining chip. Meanwhile, Mattis also guaranteed US continued recognition of the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku Islands) to which "Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty applies." Of course that is an old bargaining chip used for many years.

This kind of diplomatic tactic fits the Chinese saying of "hit the cattle at the other side of the mountain", which could be used in the terms described in "Art of War" again called "win a victory without a war", or as stated "the top method is through strategy, the second method is through diplomacy..." But these methods are only suitable with people of the same IQ. Yet the flatterers of Xi Jinping do not even understand it. This is as dumbfounding as playing piano to the cattle.

But time will move forward without wait for the people. If we let Xi Jinping and his small clique do what they want, the Chinese people will suffer again, as the country falls into a disintegration. By then, the jades will be burned along with rocks, and both those inside of that clique or outside will inevitably die without a burial place.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2017/WeiJS170208onChinaUStradewar2.mp3

(Written on February 7, 2017 and recorded on February 8, 2017. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A986-W637

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A986-W637

Release Date: February 19, 2017

发布日：2017年2月19日

Topic: Is a Sino-US Trade War Necessary (part II)? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：再论中美贸易战是必须的吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2017/report2017-02/WeiJS170219onChinaUStradewar2A986-W637.htm

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再论中美贸易战是必须的吗？

-- 魏京生

上个星期我们谈到中美贸易战的问题。最近就看到中国政府有了善意的反应。最大的官方媒体人民日报发表文章，说是中美之间最好是合作，不要打贸易战，贸易战对双方都不利。这可以被视作是中共方面的善意反应，至少一些比较聪明的领导层人士有此反应。

但我怀疑：习近平最近正在野心膨胀，想大权独揽当一个真正的独裁者。他在大肆抓捕自由派人士，控制言论空间的同时，大肆抓捕党内异议人士，换上自己的亲信。这种动作是大动作，有很强的惯性。一下子停下来改弦更张，好像不容易做到。

况且现在就停下来改弦更张，会给党内的反对派造成口实。在即将召开的十九大上，会对他的独裁计划造成阻力，甚至可能会崩盘。他会为了国家和人民的利益，放弃他成为毛二世的机会吗?这是个问题。

很多蹩脚的媒体人还在等待川普开始打贸易战，其实已经开始了。最近美国已经给来自中国的产品加了重税。这还仅仅是在为大规模的贸易战试探，或者说在严重警告中国：让你看看市场在我手里，你能有什么手段反击我呢。

以小习同志现在头脑发热膨胀的状态来看，马屁精们揣摩上意后，会这样劝进说：我们现在GDP已经如何如何庞大，国内市场也如何如何庞大，可以和美国一战。更何况临近十九大，关键时刻不能退让，只能背水一战。

于是什么人民福祉，国家利益都跑到九霄云外去了，只有小集团的利益最重要。独裁者一声令下，中国也开始给已经税率很高的美国产品加税。于是很好，是你中国开始打贸易战，而且是在税上加税，在已经实行多年的非关税壁垒上，再加一层关税壁垒。中共公开挑起贸易战，给川普开打正式的贸易战制造了一个很好的理由。

川普给中国的钢铁制品加反补贴税，有充分的证据，没有人觉得不合理。甚至那些无理取闹的游行示威者们，也没敢说有什么不合理。这些找茬的人，如果有合理的理由，他们难道就不会利用吗？何况他们背后有出钱的高人在指点，别以为这只是一帮人在胡闹。

现在反川普的闹事者们在紧盯着总统。正如林彪副统帅说的那样：没有条件创造条件也要上。所以川普暂时还没有大动作，还在试探和犹豫。但这个窗口很小，闹事者们也有疲劳的时候；高人也有不耐烦的时候。习近平的白手套也会被查出来。

到那个时候，川普就会放出他的杀手锏。再谈判就有点晚了，至少价码就会一落千丈。那时人家说什么就是什么，没什么可商量的。现在立刻放下架子，开始谈判，也许还能争取到缓和贸易战的机会，有时间改革政治、经济体制，包括法律体系和多如牛毛的非关税壁垒。

但在中共现在的领导层里，有这样的智慧的人是谁呢？谁有能力和胆量去说服准独裁者，给他泼一泼冷水呢？即使真的有这样一个人，而且真的试图说服小习，马屁精们会迫不及待的给他扣上一顶卖国贼的帽子，将他打倒在地再踏上一只脚，让他永世不得翻身。毕竟，在习近平看来，十九大成就独裁者的计划最重要。

还有一种可能。一些虽然明智但习惯唯唯诺诺的人，会说不然就这么维持着，不反击也不妥协，等开过十九大再说。这种弱智的计谋可能更会得到习近平的首肯，据说习近平在官场权谋上比较精明，在大局谋略方面比较弱智，所以会接受比较弱智的计谋。

但这只是一厢情愿的算计，不可能算数。问题就是你打你的我打我的，川普有耐心等着你合适的时候再开始贸易战吗？幼儿园的智商。所谓的试探可以马上转变为前哨战，然后很快就具备了贸易战的规模。毕竟，迅速减少进口中国商品，减少贸易逆差，是川普必须马上作出的成绩。美国人民都在看着呢，闹事者们也在等着呢。

孙子兵法上说：静如处子，动如脱兔。据说川普的军师们有人喜欢孙子兵法。所以估计川普正在玩静悄悄挑衅的计谋，道高一尺魔高一丈，温水煮青蛙，逼着你开打贸易战，不打都不行。而且还要让你担上打第一枪的罪名。你想玩缓兵之计是不可能的，不要认为美国人傻。

美国国防部长在日本说：南海现在还没有开战的必要，等待外交解决。中国愤青们就喜大普奔，以为美国佬示弱了。这种误解真让人哭笑不得。马蒂斯说没有必要，就是在说已经准备好有必要时如何。等待外交解决就是在说：除了一中政策之外，我再告诉你第二个谈判筹码。同时他还保证钓鱼岛在美日安保条约范围内，当然这是用了多次的老筹码了。

这种隔山打牛的外交手腕，正是孙子兵法里的不战而屈人之兵，或者上兵伐谋，次者伐交。可是这只有和同等智商的人打交道才管用，习近平的马屁精们连听都听不懂，对牛弹琴让人也是哭笑不得。

但是时间不等人。继续让习近平和他的小集团一意孤行，中国人民要吃二遍苦，受二茬罪，国家也会陷入分崩离析。届时也将玉石俱焚，小集团内和小集团外的家伙们，都难免会死无葬身之地。