Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1019-W665

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1019-W665

Release Date: June 17, 2017

发布日：2017年6月17日

Topic: History Lessons We Learned from the June 4 Massacre in 1989 -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：六四的历史教训 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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History Lessons We Learned from the June 4 Massacre in 1989

-- Wei Jingsheng

It has been 28 years since the June 4 Massacre. The blood of the holocaust is still vivid to the witnesses. The tyranny in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union is over, yet why are we the Chinese people still under the suppression of tyranny? This is illogical to many people. But under the illogical surface, there must be deep logic yet for us to understand and think about.

From the big processions (in the spring of 1989) in commemoration of Hu Yaobang, demonstrations started in full swing all over China. Not only the students, but the workers and the general citizens had also gradually come into the mainstream protest, which even included all levels of the Communist Party leadership except the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. That was indeed the time when all people thought of change and tried to work together for it. Under such huge pressure from the public, even the government of "the North Ocean Army" (a powerful, Western-style Imperial Chinese Army initially established by the Qing Dynasty government in the late 19th century), which was established by guns, could not stand and had to compromise and make a retreat from the people; as well as the Tunisian dictatorship fall and Communist Parties in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe collapsed. Why not China? We need to review the scene back then.

In 1989, there was proof of the non-presence of some high-level intellectuals who were considered as mentors and leaders by the students and the masses. Yet, some of them spoke from home and said: I am only responsible for mobilizing the masses; or even said: my responsibility is to provide ideas, not for the political movement. Some people simply traveled out of the city. This kind of actions may be the precedent of the nowadays police who make the dissidents to travel and drink tea when to achieve their purposes.

What we all saw was only how inexperienced these students were at the TianAnMen Square and far reached to the reality. How could they send these 3 gentlemen who damaged the portrait of Mao Zedong to the police? Do they know the difference between enemy and friend? This action indeed illustrates that these leaders of the movement were really young kids with neither experience, nor minds. Simply put, there was no leader or no decent leader then.

There was no leader or no decent, experienced, and thoughtful leader. This lack is one of the main reasons why the movement of the people was vast but inevitably failed. A serious political movement is like a ship sailing in the sea, and there must be a captain. It is best to have an experienced captain with a mind to lead everyone to reach the destination. When there was no captain, or two or more captains, the probability of capsize will be multiplied. As the rural proverb says: the house will not be built straight where there are too many carpenters taking charge.

Historically, any revolution that succeeded in overthrowing power or changing dynasties is successful when there are pressures from two or even three directions. First is the accumulation of social contradictions over many years, when people's rebellious minds gradually increase to be over the limit that the order can withstand. That pressure was called the usable power of the people by ancient Chinese. A second pressure is division within the ruling class, when the contradictions within are so strong that they are difficult to reconcile. Sometimes there is a third pressure; when there are external forces involved, such as in 1644 when Mandarins in the northeast of China went southward which eventually ended the rule of the Ming Dynasty.

In 1989, the first pressure of social contradictions had not accumulated strongly enough, and the goals of people's resistance were not clear enough. Occasionally, we saw slogans of democracy, freedom, and end of dictatorship. Yet the absolute majority of slogans had goals of reform, such as "support the Communist Party against the businesses lead by officials"; "we want good officials not corrupt ones", and so on. I do not know who tried to mislead the students who occupied the TianAnMen Square into thinking if they ever successfully ended "business lead by officials", they would make history and even become the leaders in China. There were slogans of "down with the dictatorship" that got removed quickly by the picket team, in an effort to maintain the so-called "purity of the students". These actions prove that the people were still relatively weak, and their conscience of resistance was not high enough. So even if some people may have tried to incite them, it would not reach the level of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Thus the failure in China in 1989 was not accidental, but inevitable.

The second pressure of a sharp contradiction of the upper classes indeed had reached a sufficient level. As Mr. Bao Tong pointed out to then premier Zhao Ziyang: This is a struggle for life and death, and should not be softly handled. But the so-called reformers lead by Zhao had given up their responsibilities, and were not willing to take the responsibility for a revolution to overthrow the Communist Party's leadership. They were not willing to overthrow the one party dictatorship as had happened in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, but rather let innocent students and the public to bleed, to sacrifice their lives. This was an accidental reason, but this was the key reason.

The third pressure although not necessary, is also important. Historically, not every revolution had the interference of external forces every time, but sometimes the interference of external forces was a key factor to win victory. For example, during the Independence War of the USA, without the help of the French army it would be impossible for a bunch of poorly trained militia to overcome the well-equipped and well-trained British regular army.

But in 1989 in Beijing, although we could feel the support of people from all over the world, we could not feel the pressure and solidarity from the democratic camps. This is very different from the situation of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Even the President of the United States George H. Bush hastily replaced the ambassador who supported the pro-democracy movement, and declared that he would not interfere with the "internal affairs" in China. These erroneous signals became the key and decisive factor in the determination of the Deng Xiaoping clique to massacre the people.

Some of the more extreme commentators think that the willingness to help the revolution in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe but not China was due to the factor of white racism. I think this accusation is not fair and did not point to the real cause of the problem. Even since late 1980's, the United States has ignored the democratic movement in China. It is due to the large US companies' interest in China.

The Chinese Communist regime has been propagating the idea that if the Communist Party is down, there will be a chaotic war between warlords in China, and the order will not be restored for many years. This chaos is what the domestic and foreign business people do not like to see. Making extra profit under the protection of an authoritarian regime will make business people overjoyed and forget about their conscience. This gang of black, white, and yellow colored business people is not concerned with the ideal of racism, but only to earn enough dirty money and thus give up their conscience. This result is also a historical necessity and not a strange thing. Unfortunately, in 1989, there was no leader to tell the students and the people how to avoid or bypass this inevitability.

Now, after 28 years of accumulation, it can be said that the times are different, with all kinds of conditions becoming more sufficient than before. The biggest difference is that after the bloody massacre of the Communist regime, the Chinese people quickly cleared their eyes and saw the essence of the Communist Party. People will be more determined to move, with their clear goal towards a democratic system. It can be said that the conditions of the revolution in China are more mature than they were in 1989.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2017/WeiJS170608on64lessons.mp3

(Written on June 7 and recorded on June 8, 2017. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1019-W665

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1019-W665

Release Date: June 17, 2017

发布日：2017年6月17日

Topic: History Lessons We Learned from the June 4 Massacre in 1989 -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：六四的历史教训 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2017/report2017-06/WeiJS170617on64lessonsA1019-W665.htm

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六四的历史教训

-- 魏京生

二十八年过去了，当年大屠杀的血迹对亲历者来说，还是历历在目。东欧和苏联的暴政结束了，为什么我们中国还深陷在暴政的压迫之下呢？对很多人来说，这不合逻辑。但是不合逻辑的表面现象之下，必然有它深层的逻辑，有待于我们去了解和思考。

从纪念胡耀邦的大游行开始，全国各地的游行示威就如火如荼地展开了。不但学生，工人和市民也逐渐成为了主流，甚至包括除了中共中央委员会之外的中共各级机关的群众。真是人心思变，全民同心。这样大的民众压力，就是靠枪杆子立国的北洋军阀也顶不住，不得不向人民妥协让步；甚至像突尼斯独裁政权和苏联、东欧的共产党那样垮台。为什么中国没有呢？这需要我们稍微回顾一下当时的场景。

被学生和群众奉为导师和领袖的一些高级知识分子，有不在场的证明。有些人在家里说：我只负责发动群众；甚至说我的责任就是提供思想，不对政治运动负责。有些人干脆到外地去旅游。这可能是后来警察们动不动就要让异议人士喝茶旅游的先例。

大家看到的只是现场的娃娃们如何没经验，甚至有些不着调。怎么会把污染毛泽东画像的三君子扭送给了警察呢？这不是敌我不分吗？这说明居于运动领导者地位的，确实是些没经验、没头脑的娃娃。简单地说，就是没有领袖或者没有像样的领袖。

没有领袖或者没有像样的、有经验、有头脑的领袖，这是人民群众的运动虽然声势浩大却必然失败的主要原因之一。一场认真的政治运动就像一艘在大海中航行的船一样，必须有一个船长。最好是有经验、有头脑的船长，才能带领大家到达目的地。没有船长或者有两个以上的船长，翻船的概率就会成倍地升高。就像农村的谚语说的那样；木匠多了盖歪房。

从历史上看，凡是成功推翻政权或者改朝换代的革命，都是从两个方面甚至三个方面受力，才能够成功。一方面是多年积累的社会矛盾，民众的造反情绪逐渐高涨，超过了秩序能够承受的上限。也就是古人常说的民气可用。第二个方面就是统治阶级内部分裂，矛盾尖锐到了难以调和的地步。有时候还有第三个方面，就是有外力介入，例如1644年居住在东北的满清入关，最后结束了明朝官民双方的统治。

一九八九年的时候，第一个方面社会矛盾积累得还不够强大，民众的反抗目标也不够明确。要民主、要自由、不要专政的口号偶尔可见，但占绝对主流的口号是支持共产党反对官倒；要清官不要贪官，等等改良思想的目标。广场上的学生不知道受谁的蛊惑，以为反官倒一旦成功，就可以名垂青史甚至入主中南海了。甚至打倒专制的口号会被纠察队迅速清除出场，以保持所谓学生们的纯洁性。这些都证明民众还比较软弱，反抗意识不高，或者说觉悟不够。即使有人煽动，也达不到苏联、东欧的水平，失败也就不是偶然的，而是必然的。

第二个方面上层矛盾尖锐，已经达到了足够的水平。正如鲍彤先生当年向赵紫阳指出的那样：这已经是一场你死我活的斗争了，不应该手软。但是以赵紫阳为首的所谓改革派却放弃了责任，不愿意为一场推翻共产党的革命承担责任；不愿意像苏联、东欧那样推翻一党专政，宁可让无辜的学生和市民流血牺牲。这是运动失败的偶然原因，但却是关键的原因。

第三个方面虽然不是必须的，但也是重要的。历史上的革命不是每一次都有外力的干涉，但有时候外力的干涉却是胜利的关键因素。例如美国独立战争，如果没有法国军队的帮助，一帮衣衫不整没有多少训练的民兵，不可能战胜装备精良、训练有素的英国正规军。

但在一九八九年的北京，虽能感受到来自全世界民众的声援，却感受不到来自民主国家阵营的压力和声援。这和苏联、东欧所遭遇的情况大不相同。甚至老布什为总统的美国还临时撤换支持民运的大使，并且声明不会干涉中国的内政。这些错误的信号恰恰成为邓小平集团下决心屠杀人民的关键因素，也是决定性的因素。

有些比较极端的评论认为：愿意帮助苏联、东欧的革命而不愿意帮助中国的革命，是白种人种族主义的因素在起作用。我认为这不太公平，也没有点到问题的真正原因。美国从八十年代末就无视中国的民主运动，和美国大企业在中国的利益有关。

中共一直在宣传：打倒共产党中国就会陷入军阀混战，多少年都恢复不了秩序。这是国内外生意人们最不喜欢看见的局面。在专制政权的保护下赚取超额的利润，这会让生意人们喜出望外，忘记良心。这帮黑、白、黄种的商人们不是为了种族主义的理想，而是为了赚不够的脏钱而放弃了良心。这也是历史的必然而不是什么奇怪的事情。可惜没有领袖告诉学生和老百姓如何避免或者绕过这个必然性。

现在，经过了二十八年岁月的积淀，可以说时代不同了，各种条件比当年更加充分了。最大的不同，就是经过中国共产党的血腥屠杀，中国人民迅速擦亮了眼睛，看透了共产党的本质。人们将会步履坚定，目标明确地走向民主法制。可以说，革命的条件比当年更加成熟了。