Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1075-W712

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1075-W712

Release Date: January 13, 2018

发布日：2018年1月13日

Topic: Strange Tales in the New Year (part 1) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：新年聊斋（之一） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Strange Tales in the New Year (part 1)

-- Wei Jingsheng

The New Year has arrived. There are speeches and greetings dazzling around, so I will not get in that crowd to do the same. Now that we all have come to work after the holiday season, it is time for us to chat about issues of concerns such as what many friends had asked me even during the holiday season: what happens to China in 2018?

In 2017, a lot was going on in China with the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) especially the stepping down of Wang Qishan, and Xi Jinping turning himself into a dictator. But will Wang Qishan really disappear from now on? It may not be so. He is not willing to lose his power due to others' plotting. Even if he were, his group of people is not willing because what they have lost is not just an interest, but also safety and even the safety of their whole families.

In recent years, the internal fights within the Chinese Communist Party have returned to its earlier years and the period of the Cultural Revolution, to the degree of fighting to life or death. The way of these internal fights is consistent with what then Vice President Lin Biao said: If the condition is suitable, then let us do it; if the condition is unsuitable, then we will create the condition to do it. The internal fights within the CCP have reached a similar state: If there is an excuse to arrest you, we will arrest you; if there is not an excuse to arrest you, we will create an excuse to arrest you. If you do not obey, then you will be put to death. So now suicide has become a preferred way to be free from torture. Take the example of Bo Xilai: not only his wife and children could not escape this net of terror; even his friends, relatives, and subordinates were swept out.

Will Wang Qishan be willing to be put in such a situation? Will the subordinates of Wang Qishan be willing? Will their wives and children be willing? Self-defense counterattacks have long been in the planning, not just for themselves but also for everyone in the clique. Look at what happened to Zhou Yongkang, Bo Xilai, Xu Caihou, Guo Boxiong, and their subordinates. No one sees more clearly than Wang Qishan, because he was the one who handled all of them. The fate of Feng Shui rotates, and now it is the turn of his clique. He should be able to think clearly.

Xi Jinping is not as silly as everyone said either. Although he is proud of himself for being surrounded by a large number of brown-noses, struggle with conspiracy is his specialty. The veteran conspirators around him will also point out to him the danger presented, so he will not stop from this point on. He does not want to be overcome by Wang Qishan when Wang conjuncts with other forces, thus he must quickly use the power in his hands to wipe out potential opposition forces. Thus 2018 is bound to be a big fight between the dragons and tigers.

People will ask: which of these two will win? This is not easy to say. In the previous two years, Wang Qishan had the upper hand while like a fool, Xi Jinping was showing himself around by how many books he had read, and spraying money all over the world while losing the hearts of the people and officials in China, to the degree that he would be justifiably "retired" at the 19th Congress of the CCP. Unexpectedly, the sudden emergence of the news breaking from forces outside the CCP which concentrated on the corruption and dirty works of Wang Qishan caused widespread public outrage mostly concentrated on him and the situation was completely reversed. Eventually, that led to the stepping down of Wang Qishan, a live devil from Hell.

However, Xi Jinping did not get all the power left by Wang Qishan. Further, Xi Jinping also has to assume the responsibilities of the economic downturn and complaints. His weakness is precisely the spraying money all over the world while China is suffering from its economic downturn, such as the so-called the Belt and Road, and the mess of that bank, etc. The vast difference between the Chinese billionaire and one billion of poor people in China is an incurable disease of the CCP's corrupt politics.

It is reported that along with the struggling battle between Xi Jinping and Wang Qishan, the forces of many emerging and older generations in China are quietly on the rise. When a mantis is catching the cicada, it may not realize a common iroa is behind and ready to strike it. As Xi Jinping becomes so unpopular, who knows whether the others will just stand by or even take advantage of the weak situation as Xi tries to wipe out the remnant forces of Wang Qishan? It seems that nobody will stay idle, because Xi's brutal fights and merciless strikes have surpassed those of Mao Zedong while his prestige is far less impressive than that of Mao Zedong or even Deng Xiaoping.

This huge gap between ability and the needs is the largest shortcoming of the Xi Jinping clique. In addition, he does not know how to find talents, to accumulate enough strength to be used slowly. When he only relies on cruel suppression and conspiracy to overthrow, he would leave no stamina like the last journey of a strong arrow. From the rule of the mass production of conspirators since the CCP took over power, the number of common ioras behind the mantis must be quite large. It is also the historical inevitability of the younger generations who have the ambition of "substituting them" and see this as a great opportunity that should not be missed.

So our friends must have patience. The year of 2018 surely will be a year of turmoil as the dragons and tigers fight against each other. The violent fight of life-and-death within the Communist Party will satisfy everyone's curiosity. This is a time to watch a dramatic show, enough to meet your expectation and addiction to see a great drama. Get out the popcorn.

Original link of the RFA commentary:

http://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-01042018100815.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2018/WeiJS180103onStrangeTales1.mp3

(Written on January 2, 2018 and recorded on January 3, 2018. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1075-W712

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1075-W712

Release Date: January 13, 2018

发布日：2018年1月13日

Topic: Strange Tales in the New Year (part 1) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：新年聊斋（之一） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-01/WeiJS180113onStrangeTales1A1075-W712.htm

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新年聊斋（之一）

-- 魏京生

新年刚过，节日期间各种贺词呀致辞的很多，看得人眼花缭乱就不凑那个热闹了。节日过完了大家也上班了，咱们再慢慢聊点比较关心的问题。比如很多朋友在过节期间都问我一个问题：2018年中国会出什么事儿吗？

2017年很热闹，开了十九大，下台了王岐山，独裁了习近平。但是王岐山真的就这么消失了吗？恐怕未必。就这么被人暗算丢掉了手中的权力，他也不会甘心。就算他甘心，他手下的一大帮子人也不会甘心，因为失去的不仅仅是利益，还包括安全，甚至全家的安全。

最近几年，中共的内斗又恢复到了早年和文革时期的程度，恢复了斗起来就你死我活的程度。这就应了林彪副主席的那句话：有条件要上，没有条件创造条件也要上。有把柄要抓，没有把柄制造把柄也要抓。不服气就把你往死里整，自杀倒成了不受酷刑的解脱。像薄熙来那样，老婆孩子都难逃罗网，亲朋部下一扫光。

在这样的形势下，王岐山甘心吗？王岐山的部下们甘心吗？他们的老婆孩子甘心吗？自卫反击早就在筹划之中了，不为自己，为了大家也不能就此放手。看看周薄徐郭部下们的下场，没有人比王岐山更清楚了，那是他亲手操办的。风水轮流转，现在轮到他这一帮了，应该能想清楚。

习近平也不像大家说的那么傻。虽然他得意忘形正被一大帮马屁精包围着，但阴谋权力斗争本就是他的特长。他周围的老牌阴谋家也会给他点明存在的危险，所以他也不会收手。他不想被王岐山联合其它势力搬倒，必然迅速利用手中的权力扫除潜在的反对势力。所以2018年必然是龙争虎斗的一年。

有好事者问：他们俩谁输谁赢呢？这就不好说了。前面两年本来是王岐山占优势。习近平到处晒书单丢人现眼；满世界大撒币尽失官心民心，就等着十九大可以名正言顺下台休息了。没想到异军突起，一股党外势力集中爆料王岐山本人的贪腐和厚黑，引起了民众比较集中的愤慨，形势完全逆转，最终导致王岐山这个活阎王的下台。

但是习近平并没有拿到王岐山留下来的权力；而且习近平还要承担经济下滑和民怨鼎沸的责任。他的软肋正是经济下滑还要大撒币，什么一带一路还有那个什么烂七八糟的银行；亿万富翁和亿万贫民之间的天壤之别，是中共腐败政治的不治之症。

据报道，伴随着习近平和王岐山之间惊心动魄的争斗，许多新兴的和老一辈的势力悄然崛起。螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后，习近平如此不得人心，谁知道在他扫除王岐山余党的同时，别人会不会袖手旁观以至于乘虚而入呢？大家好像都不会闲着，因为习近平的残酷斗争无情打击超过了毛泽东，他的人望威信却远远不如毛泽东，甚至不如邓小平。

这种能力和需要的巨大差距，是习近平集团的最大短板。而且他不知道发现人才，积聚力量厚积薄发。仅仅依靠阴谋推翻和残酷镇压，正所谓强弩之末，没有后劲了。以中共执政后大量出产阴谋家的规律来看，螳螂后边的黄雀一定不少。心怀“彼可取而代之”野心的后生之辈，看见这么好的机会不肯错过，也是历史的必然。

所以朋友们要有耐心。2018年肯定是个龙争虎斗之年，共产党内部剧烈的你死我活之争，正好可以满足大家的好奇心。看戏党们这回可是有好戏大戏，过把瘾地看。

魏京生在自由亚洲电台评论的原始链接：

http://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-01042018100815.html