Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1079-W716

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1079-W716

Release Date: January 27, 2018

发布日：2018年1月27日

Topic: Strange Tales in the New Year (part 3) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：新年聊斋（之三） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Strange Tales in the New Year (part 3)

-- Wei Jingsheng

The common Chinese are most concerned about the economic and social situation in China. In comparison, they are not particularly concerned about politics and diplomacy. Of course, we all know that the relation between politics and economics is very close, otherwise why there is "political economy".

This year's politics will be very bad for the Chinese economy. The first is because foreign trade has entered a period of risk, when the markets of both the USA and Europe that China relies on for its exports to make money may be in big trouble. Most people are more concerned about the U.S. market and are very sensitive to the Sino-US trade war. In fact, the same lucrative countries such as Europe and Japan have already started to adopt market-barrier policies against China to a degree even more than the United States. On the issue of trade barriers, the United States is actually most tolerant of China. I do not know why the Chinese leaders have only put attention on the United States.

China's exports are mainly labor-intensive products with low capital and low technology, and could be easily replaced by other countries. Therefore, when a trade war starts between China and the United States, China definitely will be at a loss. However, if the United States does not fight a trade war against China, what would it demand instead? The first is, of course, to have the trade balance maintained automatically. The second is to help solve the nuclear weapons issue of North Korea.

From the current behavior, it appears that the stupid Xi Jinping really thinks he is the second most important person in this world, to the degree he wants to wrestle with the United States. Not only has he continued to increase the trade deficit with the United States, he also engaged in some trade retaliations by the way. Further, he also pretended to be tough on the issue of North Korea's nuclear weapons, so as to satisfy his megalomaniac mentality like Mao Zedong. To describe him with a moderate term in modern language, he needs some psychological treatment.

What is the consequence of him doing this? The first is that President Trump may violate the main promise from his campaign for presidency, and thus lose a large number of supporters and threaten his own position. Otherwise, he will be forced to take tougher measures of trade barriers, that will open a trade war with China. The result is that although the United States needs additional capital investment, including investment to restore some manufacturing, the Chinese economy will be in total collapse. To described this situation with a common saying by the Chinese people, it is called "Within overnight it returned to 1958, when tens of millions of Chinese starved to death in the following year."

In the United States, an overwhelming majority of the voters are against the huge trade deficit, and an overwhelming majority opposes North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons. This are the essential reasons for Donald Trump's victory during the presidential election. In the decision-making circles in the United States, there is a heated debate on how to solve these two issues. Trump's strategy is to win the battle without a fight -- if China automatically cuts down its trade surplus or assists the United States in resolving the nuclear weapons issue of North Korea, then he may not have to have a trade war with China, but will slowly solve the trade problems instead. This will be the most advantageous option for both the United States and China.

Regrettably, the interest groups in China are fantasizing that they will continue to make big profits through the trade deficit and fatten their gang of corrupt officials and profiteers. Another group of officials who took bribes from North Korea want to defend the Kim Dynasty to the end, which also fits the megalomaniac mentality of Xi Jinping. As a result, Trump has to press the trade war to solve both the economic problem and the nuclear weapons of North Korea, so he has to push the Chinese people off the dire cliff. Let us evaluate this situation fairly: who is doing evil and who is ignoring the life and death of the Chinese people?

It is normal for Trump not to love the Chinese people. He is the president of the United States, not the Chinese. However, for Xi Jinping not to love the Chinese people is abnormal, because he is the president of China and this is his responsibility. But does he really love the Chinese people? He shouts it loud and often, just like his other empty words every day.

What is the reality then? In an effort for himself and his international friends to breathe fresh air, Xi Jinping ignored tens of millions of poor people and prevented them from burning coal in winter. These folks of our own Chinese were called "the low-end population"; with their houses and heaters destroyed by the police and bulldozers, they were driven to the bone-piercing cold streets. Now millions of Chinese are expelled, and tens of millions of Chinese are affected by this human disaster that is not due to nature. Is not this already the start of a "three-years of difficulty period" as during the Mao Zedong era? This is not in the future, but right now.

Many intelligent people with high ideals have been warning people of the return of the Cultural Revolution in China. Most people do not believe it. I did not believe it initially either. However, what Xi Jinping did, what the Beijing police and bulldozers did, has led us to believe that the period of starvation and the period of Cultural Revolution when people are persecuted to death have overlapped together to reappear in China, because of the stupid mentality and crazy decisions of the dictator. If the Chinese people and officials still do not rebel, then we will see injustice all over China, with starvation as well.

Original link of the RFA commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-01172018154914.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2018/WeiJS180117onStrangeTales3.mp3

(Written and recorded on January 17, 2018. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1079-W716

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1079-W716

Release Date: January 27, 2018

发布日：2018年1月27日

Topic: Strange Tales in the New Year (part 3) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：新年聊斋（之三） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-01/WeiJS180127onStrangeTales3A1079-W716.htm

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新年聊斋之三

-- 魏京生

对老百姓来说，最关心的还是经济和社会形势。政治和外交，相对来说不是特别关心。当然，明白人也都知道政治和经济关系非常密切，要不怎么叫政治经济学呢。

今年的政治对经济来说非常糟糕。首先是对外贸易进入风险期，中国靠出口赚大钱的美国和欧洲市场可能出大问题。一般人都比较关注美国的市场，对于中美贸易战非常敏感。其实欧洲、日本等等同样利润丰厚的国家，早已经开始对中国采取了市场壁垒政策，程度甚至超过了美国。美国在贸易壁垒问题上对中国其实最宽容了，不知道中国的领袖们为什么只注意到了美国。

中国出口商品主要是劳动力密集型产品，资本和技术含量都不高，很容易被其它国家所替代。所以中美之间打贸易战，吃亏的肯定是中国。而美国如果不打贸易战，要求中国的是什么呢？第一当然是自动维持贸易平衡，第二就是协助解决朝鲜核武器问题。

从现在的表现来看，傻冒习近平还真以为自己天下第二了，有条件和美国掰一掰手腕了。他不但仍然在增加美国的贸易逆差，顺便还搞了一些贸易报复行动；而且在朝鲜核武器问题上假装强硬，来满足他和毛泽东一样的自大狂精神病。现代语言说得比较温和，说是需要心理治疗。

他这样做的后果是什么呢？首先是川普总统可能会违背他主要的竞选诺言，失去大批支持者，威胁到他自己的地位。这就是逼迫他不得不采取强硬的贸易壁垒措施，也就是开打贸易战。结果是美国虽然需要额外增加资本投入，包括恢复一些制造业投资，但是中国的经济则是全面崩溃。用老百姓的俗话描述，叫做一夜回到五八年，明年饿死几千万。

在美国，反对巨额贸易逆差的选民占绝大多数，反对朝鲜拥有核武器的也占绝大多数。这是川普竞选获胜的基本原因。美国的决策圈子里，在如何解决这两个问题上，有着激烈的争论。川普的策略是不战而屈人之兵，只要中国自动削减贸易顺差，或者协助美国解决朝鲜核武器，就可以不打贸易战，慢慢解决贸易问题。这样对美国和中国都是最有利的选择。

遗憾的是，中国的利益集团幻想继续利用贸易逆差来赚大钱，养肥他们这帮贪官奸商集团。另一帮拿了朝鲜贿赂的官员，要死保金家王朝，也适应了习近平的自大狂心理。结果就是逼着川普不得不打贸易战，来解决经济和朝核两个问题，因此不得不把中国人民推向水深火热之中。大家公平地看看，是谁在做孽，谁在不顾中国人民的死活？

川普不热爱中国人民，这很正常，他是美国总统，又不是中国人。习近平不热爱中国人民就不正常了，他是中国总统，这是他的责任。但他真的热爱中国人民吗？口头上倒是嚷嚷得很热闹，假大空话天天讲。

实际上如何呢？习近平可以为了自己和国际友人呼吸到新鲜空气，对几千万穷人不管不顾，大冬天的不让人家烧煤。而且还把自己的人民叫做低端人口，用警察和推土机摧毁他们的房屋和锅炉，把他们驱赶到寒冷刺骨的大街上。现在几百万人被驱赶，几千万人受非天灾的人祸，这不就已经开始了毛泽东的三年困难时期了吗？不是将来。而是现在。

很多聪明的志士仁人早就在警惕大家，说文革会卷土重来。大多数人不相信，开始我也不相信。习近平的所作所为，和北京的警察和推土机让我们不得不相信：由于独裁者的傻冒心理和疯狂决策，饿死人的时代和整死人的文革，合二而一地一起复辟了。老百姓和官员们还不造反，就等着冤屈满朝，饿殍遍野吧。

魏京生在自由亚洲电台评论的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-01172018154914.html