Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1098-W735

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1098-W735

Release Date: April 8, 2018

发布日：2018年4月8日

Topic: Wei Jingsheng and Qin Weiping at VOA's Issues and Opinions Program: As the US-China Trade War Escalates, Who Has Hurt Whom?

标题：魏京生与秦伟平参加美国之音《时事大家谈》：美中贸易战升级，谁打痛了谁？

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VOA Issues and Opinions: As the US-China Trade War Escalates, Who Has Hurt Whom?

April 6, 2018 00:32

-- Yu-Wen Cheng, Voice of America

Washington -

The clamor between the US and China on trade issues has continued to escalate. Both sides have put forward a second round of sanctions lists. Which of these two will be hurt most due to the retaliatory tariffs with a total value exceeding 100 billion U.S. dollars? President Trump said: " When you're already $500 Billion DOWN, you can't lose!" What about China? Can China's foreign trade, which depends heavily on the U.S. market, stand up to the U.S. high-tariff sanctions? At the same time, some experts believe that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has gained vested interest in the world order as a destroyer of trade rules in the past 40 years. It is time for the CCP to pay the price for failing to abide by the rules. Can President Trump's actions break this unfair trade and hurt the Chinese Communist regime?

The guests participating in the program hosted by VOA's Yu-wen Cheng were: Wei Jingsheng, Chairman of the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition; and Qin Weiping, a Chinese economist resides in the USA.

Wei Jingsheng: China Did Not Adhere to the WTO Accession Agreement, Which Is Not Good to China Itself As Well As to the Others

Wei Jingsheng, chairman of the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition, said that when the United States gave China permanent MFN (i.e. PNTR)status and allowed China to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) at the beginning of the 21st century, many Americans and members of the US Congress believed that these treatments would not be good for China. At that time, we mainly focused on human rights issues, while the focus of other discussion in private by the lawmakers was on the economic aspects. At that time, US lawmakers believed that China's opening up of the market would be very beneficial to the US economy. I pointed out that your being open to China does not mean that China will be open to the United States. But they said that China has signed the agreement. I said that even if China signs an agreement, it will not necessarily comply with its commitments. Now it appears that my judgment was correct. In fact, China's non-compliance of its agreements is not only unfavorable to the United States but also very unfavorable to China. Although it seems that China's GDP has grown very fast, there are many economic risks. Many U.S. experts and many Chinese experts who do not follow Chinese media also believe that China's opening up of the market would be beneficial to both its own national economy and Chinese people's purchases. At the same time, it would also give certain pressure on Chinese companies to promote reforms, including institutional reforms, technical reforms, and quality improvement. Without pressure, these reforms would not succeed. In fact, any reform and opening up in China have all been initiated and carried out under external pressure, otherwise there would be no reforms.

Wei Jingsheng: The Trade War Is Supported by Both Political Parties In the USA and the American People: the White House Will Persist To the End.

Wei Jingsheng said that what Trump does now should generate enough pressure to force China to move forward. We have seen that Trump's White House officers were adjusted to a more hard-line style. This sent a signal to the Chinese government that the US will not be deterred from this, even though China's propaganda says that the United States has already surrendered. In fact, for Trump, he must carry out what he promised, because the serious trade deficit has already seriously affected the American economy. "(The USA) cannot lose (anymore)!" As a US president, it does not make sense if he does not take any action. On the other hand, China has surrendered before the trade war even started. They are keeping sending people to the United States to negotiate and asked the United States to slow down, to wait, to give it a few more years, and so on. But the fact is that after the U.S. granted the permanent MFN status to China in 2000, nearly 20 years have passed. It is unacceptable to continue this way; it is time to call for immediate change. Moreover, Trump's practice on trade issues has not only won the approval of Republicans, but also the recognition of Democrats; that is, he is getting support from both parties. Of course American capitalists do not support him, and the media controlled by these capitalists continued to vilify him. This is another issue. In short, the American people and American politicians are of relatively unified opinions on this issue. Therefore, the United States will not back down on this matter.

Wei Jingsheng: Xi Jinping's Strong Personality Will Play Tough, While the United States Has Four Times More Maneuvering Room for Sanctions.

Wei Jingsheng said that watching the trend, Xi Jinping will continue to play a tough guy. His personality is strong and likes to win. He has caused controversy in the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the Indian border. At the same time, he has engaged in spreading money all over the world. With his dictatorial style, coupled with the encouragement of the Chinese interest groups and some American interest groups which have gathered huge amounts of wealth and earned excessive profits from the unfair trade, Xi Jinping certainly believes he "has a fight." However, fundamentally speaking, he cannot win.

As for China's list of sanctions against the United States that shows a concentrated hit on the people's livelihood, it should be pointed out that the Chinese government does not care about the interests of the Chinese people at all. The market for open agricultural products is of great significance to the Chinese, but the Chinese government has always been very tight on this market. This time, the tariff list produced by the Chinese government has a clear political purpose and is aimed at to persuade voters for Trump to turn around. The list of U.S. sanctions is not necessarily political, but it also has purpose. It focuses on heavy industry or technological products. Most of these products come from state-owned enterprises. These companies really enjoy subsidies from the Chinese government and are not open nor transparent, plus engaging in theft of US technology. Why cannot Chinese college students find jobs now? That is because companies do not engage in scientific research and rather rely on plagiarism. Under this premise, if the United States escalates its strikes, the amount for China to strike the United States with is not more than 100 billion US dollars. On the contrary, the United States has 500 billion US dollars to fight against. It is self-evident who is dominant in this trade war.

Qin Weiping: China Develops With Low Human Rights Standards, and the United States must "Even the Score" when Threatened.

Qin Weiping, a Chinese economist residing in the USA, said that today's huge trade surplus between China and the USA came after the U.S. granted MFN status to China and the subsequent China accession to the World Trade Organization. Since the beginning of the 21st century, there were great political, economic and social changes in China. Now that the United States wants to "even the score" with China, I think that is because the long-term national strategy of the USA has undergone a fundamental change. In the past, the United States had always had expectations of China and used it as a strategic partner. But since last year, this "partner" became a strategic competitor. This transformation is not the idea of one particular political party in the United States, but the long-term strategy of the United States for decades to come. After China's accession to the WTO, it quickly became a world factory and its economy took off, but it relied on so-called "advantages" such as a low human rights standard, low cost of labor, and extensive management. Last year, China's trade surplus with the United States reached the highest record of 375.2 billion U.S. dollars. In other words, as China's largest export market, the US accounts for 20% of China's exports, and provides China with a huge foreign currency surplus each year. For this reason, in the past decade, China has been able to display its muscle in the international arena, threaten international peace, and actively expand the One Belt One Road Strategy in the five years since Xi Jinping took office. China has not only challenged the economic interests of the United States including intellectual property rights; more importantly, as an authoritarian country, China has already challenged the political interests and even the national security of the United States. This is the big background where Trump must act. Therefore, I think that the trade war has just opened the curtain.

Qin Weiping: The United States Is Not Retreating From the Trade War, Therefore China Has to Bite the Bullet

Qin Weiping said that as for why China is fighting a trade war, I think that the Chinese government does not really want to fight a trade war with the United States. Therefore, China has been sending many groups to persuade the United States but to no effect. Since then, China has quickly announced countermeasures. My interpretation is that when the United States does not retreat, China has no choice but to bite the bullet. This attitude is also due to China being a non-democratic country. As a strong leader of this country, Xi Jinping has just completed constitutional revision and extended his term of office and strengthened his authority. At this time when the United States launched a trade war, if Xi Jinping dared not face the challenge but withdrew in fear his image would be greatly reduced both inside and outside the party. His control over the Chinese Communist Party and Chinese society would also be greatly diminished. Therefore, the rapid and tough shots from China during this trade war, on the surface seems to be a competition of the personal wills between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, but in fact it is the fight between different political systems of China and the United States.

Qin Weiping: Both Sides Lose Trade Wars, For Every 1000 Enemies China Kills, It will Suffer a Loss of 5000

Qin Weiping said that comparing the lists of the tariffs proposed by China and the United States, one will see that China's main product is people's livelihood because there are fewer cards that China can play. Of the more than 100 billion U.S. dollars the US exports to China, China imposes tariffs on 50 billion. Among the taxed are over 10 billion U.S. dollars of soybeans exported to China. China's annual soybean demand is 90 million tons; itself only produces 10 million tons, while the rest is mainly imported from Brazil and the United States. The price of US soybeans shipped to China is cheaper than that of Chinese farmers. If one imposes a 25% tariff on imported soybeans, the Chinese people will find food and oil prices rising, followed with inflation. The United States will also be nervous of declined exports. After all, soybeans are a big export order for the USA. Therefore, there is no real winner in the trade war. However, in concrete terms, China may kill 1,000 of its enemy by self-inflicting 5000. In comparison the United States will kill 1,000 of its enemy while self-inflicting only 200. Therefore, it is clear from the perspective of the overall national strength and the ratio of the two economies, that the loss in China is undoubtedly far greater than that of the United States.

"Issues and Opinions" is a free forum. The opinions expressed by both the guests and audience are their own. They do not represent that of the Voice of America.

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Original link of this VOA report:

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1098-W735

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1098-W735

Release Date: April 8, 2018

发布日：2018年4月8日

Topic: Wei Jingsheng and Qin Weiping at VOA's Issues and Opinions Program: As the US-China Trade War Escalates, Who Has Hurt Whom?

标题：魏京生与秦伟平参加美国之音《时事大家谈》：美中贸易战升级，谁打痛了谁？

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-04/WeiJS&QinWPonTradeWar180408VOAtalkshowA1098-W735.htm

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时事大家谈：美中贸易战升级，谁打痛了谁？

2018年4月6日 00:32

-- 美国之音郑裕文

华盛顿 -

美中两国在贸易问题上的叫板持续升级，双方都提出第二轮制裁清单，总值超过千亿美元的报复性关税，将给谁带来最大伤害？川普总统说，"美中贸易逆差已经达到5千亿美元，已经输无可输，美国不可能再输下去"。那么中国呢？大量依靠美国市场的中国外贸能否经得起美国的高关税制裁？与此同时，有专家认为，近40年来中共已成为世界秩序的既得利益者和贸易规则的破坏者，现在是中共为不守规则付出代价的时候了。川普总统的行动能够打破这种不公平贸易，打痛中共政权吗？

参加美国之音郑裕文主持的节目嘉宾是：中国外海民主运动联席会主席魏京生；中国旅美经济学者秦伟平。

魏京生：中国没守入世协议，于人于己都不利

中国海外民主运动联席会主席魏京生说，21世纪初，美国给予中国永久最惠国待遇和允许中国加入世界贸易组织WTO时，我和很多美国百姓还有国会议员都认为，这些待遇对于中国没有好处。当时我们主要是从人权方面着眼。而议员们私下较多讨论的重点则在经济方面。当时，美国议员们认为，中国开放市场可能对美国经济很有利。我指出，你们对中国开放并不等于中国会对美国开放；他们则说中国已经签署了协议；我说，即便中国签署了协议也不见得会遵守承诺。现在看来我的判断是正确的。其实，中国不遵守协议不光对美国不利，对中国也非常不利。中国看起来GDP发展超快，却存在诸多经济隐患。很多美国专家和很多只要不跟中国媒体走的中国专家也认为，中国开放市场对自己的国民经济和百姓购买都有好处；同时也给予中国企业一定的压力，促使它们改革，包括体制和技术方面的改革以及质量进步。没有压力不会成功。其实，中国的改革开放都是在外部压力下启动和进行的，否则就不会有任何改革。

魏京生：贸易战受两党和民众支持，白宫会坚持到底

魏京生说，川普现在做的一切应该会产生足够的压力来迫使中国往前走。我们看到，川普的白宫班子已经调整为更加强硬的风格。这给中国政府发出的信号就是，我们不会就此却步，尽管中国的宣传口说美国怂了之类的。实际上，对于川普而言，他必须言出必行，因为严重的贸易逆差已经严重影响到美国的经济，"美国输到不能再输了"。他作为美国总统，不出手已经说不过去。而中国方面，还没有开打就已经怂了。他们频繁派出人马前来美国谈判，要求美国缓一缓、等一等、给几年时间，什么的。事实是，美国2000年给予中国最惠国待遇之后，已经过去近20年了。继续缓一缓是说不过去的，只能要求立刻改变。而且，川普在贸易问题上的做法不仅获得共和党人的赞同，也得到民主党人的认可，就是两党都支持他。当然，美国的资本家不支持他，而且由资本家控制的媒体也一直唱衰他。这是另一个层面。总之，美国的百姓和政治家在这个问题上意见比较统一。所以，美国会把此事坚持下去。

魏京生：习个性强悍会硬挺，美国制裁空间多四倍

魏京生说，看趋势，习近平会硬挺下去。他个性强悍好胜，在东海、南海和印度边境都引发争议，同时搞国际大撒币。以他独断专行的风格，加上利用不公平贸易来敛聚巨额财富、赚取超额利润的中国利益集团和一些美国利益集团的推波助澜，习近平肯定认为自己"有得一战"。但是，从根本上说，他是赢不了的。

至于中国对美制裁清单上显示出集中打民生牌现象，要指出的是，中国政府本来就不在乎百姓的利益。开放农产品市场对百姓而言意义很大，但是中国政府却一直卡得很紧。本次清单，中国明显带有政治目的，针对的是川普的票仓。美国制裁清单不见得是政治性，但是也有目的性，主要针对重工业或者科技产品，这些产品多数都来自国有企业。这些企业真正享受补贴而且还不公开不透明，加上偷窃美国技术。中国大学生找不到工作，就是因为企业自己不搞科研，靠剽窃度日。这样的前提下，如果美国打击行动升级，中国打击美国的空间仅有1000亿多美元，反之，美国则有5000亿美元的打击空间。谁占优势不言自明。

秦伟平：中国靠低人权获发展，美国受威胁必须"算账"

中国旅美经济学者秦伟平说，美国给予中国最惠国待遇和随后中国加入世界贸易组织，导致了今天中美之间的巨大贸易顺差。进入21世纪以来，中国的政治、经济和社会都发生了巨大的变化。现在，美国跟中国"算账"，我认为是美国国家长期战略发生了根本性的转变。过去，美国对中国一直抱有期望，把它当作战略合作伙伴，但是去年，这个"伙伴"变成了战略竞争对手。这样的转换不是美国某个政党的想法，而是美国今后几十年的长期战略。中国加入世贸之后，迅速成为世界工厂，经济腾飞，但是依靠的是低人权、低人工和粗放式的管理等所谓的"优势"。去年，中国对美国的贸易顺差达到有史最高的3752亿美元。换言之，美国作为中国最大的出口市场，占中国出口比例的20%之多，每年为中国提供巨大的外汇顺差。中国因此得以近十年来在国际舞台上频频展示肌肉，威胁国际和平，并且在习近平上台的五年来积极拓展一带一路战略。中国不仅挑战美国的经济利益包括知识产权，更重要的是，中国作为一个独裁和威权国家，已经挑战到美国的政治利益甚至国家安全，这才是川普必须行动的大背景所在。所以，我认为，贸易战只是拉开了序幕。

秦伟平：贸易战美国不退，中国只好硬头皮

秦伟平说，至于中国打贸易战的原因所在，我认为，中国政府不希望跟美国打贸易战，所以，曾派遣多批人马来美"求和"却无果而终。此后，中国迅速公布反制措施。我的解读是，美国不后退，中国没有选择只好硬着头皮应战。这也是中国这个非民主国家的体制造成的。习近平作为这个国家的强势领导人，刚刚完成修宪延长自己的任期和加强权威。此时，在美国发动贸易战的时刻，习近平如果不敢迎接挑战而是退缩畏惧的话，其形象在党内外都会大打折扣。他对中共和中国社会的控制也会大打折扣。所以，中国在贸易战中迅速而强硬地出手，表面看是习川两人个人意志的比拼，实则是中美两国不同政治制度的博弈。

秦伟平：贸易战双输，中国杀敌1000自损5000

秦伟平说，把中美两国的惩罚清单进行对比，会看到，中国主打民生产品，因为中国可打的牌少。美国出口到中国1000多亿美元，制裁500亿。其中大豆出口到中国超过100亿美元。中国每年的大豆需求是9000万吨，自产只有1000万吨，主要依靠从巴西和美国进口。美国大豆运到中国的价格比中国农民自产还便宜。如果对进口大豆加征25%关税，中国百姓会发现食物油涨价，通胀将接踵而至。美国方面也会紧张，出口也会下滑，毕竟大豆是出口大单。所以说，贸易战没有真正的赢家。不过，具体看来，中国可能杀敌1000自损5000，美国是杀敌1000自损200。明眼人一眼看出，从综合国力和双方经贸比例看，中国的损失毫无疑问远大于美国。

时事大家谈是一个自由论坛。嘉宾和观众听众发表的都是个人观点，并不代表美国之音。

YouTube链接：时事大家谈：美中贸易战升级，谁打痛了谁？

《时事大家谈》YouTube播放列表：http://bit.ly/VOAIO-youtube?