Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1128-W759

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1128-W759

Release Date: July 28, 2018

发布日：2018年7月28日

Topic: Where Did Xi Jinping Lose? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平输在哪儿了? -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Where Did Xi Jinping Lose?

-- Wei Jingsheng

The situation of the Sino-US trade war was already clear when the US President Donald Trump announced the first tariffs on $50 billion worth of imports. But Chinese President Xi Jinping did not care and was determined to fight, with the threat of "high quality weapons". When Trump announced tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports, the Europeans secretly smiled -- they looked as if they were hesitating, yet obtained big business orders. When Trump said that he would not hesitate to tariff all the $500 billions of imports from China, almost everyone within the Chinese Communist leadership could not sit still anymore.

By then, Xi Jinping had lost this war and was unable to turn around. Whether he will end his leadership in accordance with the Hua Guofeng model, or in accordance with the Gang of Four model, or even in accordance with the Liu Shaoqi model, is the issue that most people are discussing and remains still uncertain now. If Xi issues a self-criticism and admits his crime now, he may still be able to save his life and that of his family. But if he persists to the end, he may die without a place for proper burial.

So where did he lose? Some people say that he lost by judging the situation in the wrong way. Some people say that he wrongfully judged Trump's determination. Both are correct but these are not his root mistakes. His fundamental mistake is to judge himself wrongfully. He has too much confidence and self-righteousness, yet lacks the necessary strength. One step after another, he stepped into the trap he set.

Does he not know that his own propaganda department is bragging? It seems that he doesn't know, thus he brags the so-called "self-confidence", and even thinks that the time is mature to be the emperor. He even thought that the dealing with American politicians for many years was a constant magic weapon, which was enough to underestimate the dissatisfaction of the American and European people. He really thought that democracy is a fake and money can solve all problems. As a result, this self-confidence of the nouveau riche deceived himself and caused China to fall into a situation that is difficult to solve.

He would rather stay close to the villains and far from the gentlemen with his human weakness of liking to be flattered. This let him believe the rotten ideas of his mentally retarded advisors, and claim his retaliation means of "high quality weapons" in full confidence to express his determination of fighting against Trump. What happens then?

Xi's first "high quality weapon" was to unite the Europeans against the Americans. To this end, Xi Jinping, the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, and others spread large business orders to Europe, with both threats and lures by promises of gains. However, a couple of days ago, the Europeans Union agreed with Trump to work towards zero tariffs, even with Japan and other major Western economies. This is a smack over Xi's head.

Xi's second "high quality weapon" was to concentrate his force on Trump's farmer voters in the Midwest, thus forcing Trump to yield. However, most farmers in the Midwest still retain their support for Trump even if they may suffer losses. Recently, Trump gave them $12 billion in compensation. This trick of Xi was completely unsuccessful.

Xi's third "high quality weapon" was to get American companies in China to come back to lobby the American people and politicians, and to claim that the tariffs would hurt the American people. A large number of paid scholars and experts have indeed said the same, but with no effect. What the American public saw was decreased food prices with cheap consumer goods supplemented by other countries. The Americans are not disturbed and their economy is growing strongly. The American society is indifferent, and the credibility of those paid scholars has declined. This is a case when Xi Jinping threw the shaft after the hatchet.

Xi's fourth "high quality weapon" was to depreciate Chinese currency to counter the US tariffs. This is probably the most stinky move. This inflation first hurts the people in China, and it also leads to capital outflows and investment stagnation. This hurts the already troubled Chinese economy and adds to the burden on the Chinese who already have difficulty to live. This is a typical case of officials forcing civil opposition.

Will these tricks really offset Trump's tariff war? That would assume a reaction of a kindergartener. Trump can raise the tariff at the same rate any time, and even without the need of approval from the US Congress. Europeans are relatively smarter and already include the proportion of China's manipulation of currency in their tariffs. Collectively, they put an average of about 50% tariff on Chinese imports, which eliminates the trouble of increasing a tariff every time. So Xi's trick is like what the gangsters in Tianjin would do: put red-burning briquettes on their laps, hoping this action of self-harming will scare the others. It is a pity that Westerners are not afraid of the rebellion of the Chinese, as it does not harm the interests of Westerners.

Finally, let us predict the outcome. At the time of the $50 billion tariff, if the conditions of the negotiations were equal, what China would lose would be the trade surplus. But now, it is necessary for the Chinese Communist regime to lose its own lawlessness in China. Or we could say that the reform of the judicial system is the minimum condition. Otherwise, no other conditions can be safeguarded.

Original link of this RFA commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-08032018122739.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2018/WeiJS180727onXiJPlost.mp3

(Written and recorded on July 27, 2018. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1128-W759

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1128-W759

Release Date: July 28, 2018

发布日：2018年7月28日

Topic: Where Did Xi Jinping Lose? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平输在哪儿了? -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-07/WeiJS180728onXiJPlostA1128-W759.htm

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习近平输在哪儿了?

-- 魏京生

中美贸易战的形势，在川普宣布500亿关税的时候，就已经很明朗了。习近平不在乎，坚决要打下去，还说他们有什么质量型的武器。在川普宣布2000亿关税的时候，欧洲人偷偷地笑了，假装首鼠两端狠捞了一大笔订单。在川普说不惜全额5000亿税收的时候，中共内部的几乎所有人都坐不住了。

这时候习近平就输得没有回头路了。究竟是按照华国锋模式，还是按照四人帮模式，甚至刘少奇模式结尾，是现在大家议论最多，还拿不定主意的问题。现在下个罪己诏，也许还能保全一家人的性命。如果冥顽不化坚持到底，可就真的死无葬身之地了。

那么他到底输在哪儿了呢？有人说他输在错误地判断形势。有人说他错误地判断了川普的决心。这都对，但不是根本的错误。根本的错误是错误地判断了自己，信心太大却力量不足，还自以为是。他一步步地走进了自己设下的陷阱。

你自己的宣传部门吹牛，你自己不知道吗？看来他不知道，所以才大吹特吹什么什么自信，甚至以为当皇帝的时机都成熟了。他甚至以为多年来对付美国政客的手段是不变的法宝，足以小看美国和欧洲民众的不满，真以为民主制度是假的，金钱可以解决一切问题。结果他这种暴发户的自信骗了他自己，也让中国陷入了难以解决的困境。

近小人而远君子，喜欢被吹捧的人性弱点，让他相信弱智的军师出的馊点子，信心满满地说他有质量型的报复手段，坚决要和川普打下去。结果是什么呢？

他的第一个质量型手段，就是联欧制美。为此他和李克强等人向欧洲大撒了一通订单，连威胁带利诱。结果人家前两天和川普达成了关税同盟，还包括了日本等西方主要经济体，给了小习当头一棒。

他的第二个质量型手段，就是集中打击川普的票仓，也就是美国中西部的农民，迫使川普屈服。可是中西部的多数农民表态，就算遭受损失也要支持川普。最近川普还给了他们120亿的补偿。这一招釜底抽薪之计，算是彻底没戏了。

第三招，压迫在华的美国企业，回过头来游说美国人民和政治家，说什么收税损失的是美国人民。一大批被雇佣的学者专家确实也说了，但是没什么效果。民众看到的是食品开始降价，廉价消费品会有其它国家来补充。美国人心稳定，经济增长强劲。美国社会无动于衷，那些学者们信誉下降。可以说是赔了夫人又折兵。

第四招就是以人民币贬值，来对抗美国的税率。这可能是最臭的一招了。通货膨胀首先伤害的是中国国内的老百姓，同时还会导致资本外流，投资停滞。这给本来就陷入困境的中国经济雪上加霜，给本来就生活困难的中国民众增加负担。这正是官逼民反的典型案例。

这一招真能抵消川普的关税战吗？幼儿园的智商。人家可以随时按相同的比例提高税率，甚至不再需要国会批准。欧洲人就比较聪明，现在的税率就已经包括了中国操纵货币的比例。直接按照平均一半来征税，省去了一次次加税的麻烦。这一招可真像天津的混混拿烧红的煤球放在自己的大腿上，以自残来吓唬别人。可惜的是西方人并不怕中国老百姓造反，这不损害西方人的利益。

最后我们来预测一下结果。在500亿关税的时候，谈判的条件如果定位平等的话，中国损失的是贸易顺差。现在必须损失共产党的无法无天，也就是改革司法体系是最低条件。否则其它条件都无法保障。

自由亚洲电台上这篇评论的网址：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-08032018122739.html