Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1127-W758
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1127-W758
Release
Date: July 22, 2018
发布日：2018年7月22日
Topic:
Wei Jingsheng Was Invited to the VOA Talk Show Issues and Opinions: The Sudden
Talk of Successors: What Is the Intention of Xi Jinping?
标题：魏京生参加美国之音《时事大家谈》：突然重提接班人，习近平用意何在？
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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VOA
Talk Show Issues and Opinions: The Sudden Talk of Successors: What Is the
Intention of Xi Jinping?
July
17, 2018 23:11
--
Ning Xin, Voice of America
Washington
-
Since
Xi Jinping took office in 2012, he has cleaned up the Communist Party, the
Chinese government, and the military forces in the name of anti-corruption as a
way to force back or even eradicate political opponents, and replace them with
people who are loyal to him. Since
he established his supreme position even further during the 19th Congress of
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Xi Jinping abolished the term limit of the
Chinese President by amending the Constitution during the National People's
Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference
(CPPCC) this year. He became the
highest leader in China both by the titles and by the power, which has been
considered by the outside world as he wanted to become a lifelong leader in
China. But recently, Chinese
officials have frequently released signals to groom successors, also drawing
attention from the outside world.
What is the intention of the official media frequently emphasizing the
importance of training "reliable successors"? Does it mean that Xi Jinping has no
intention of promoting lifelong leadership? Is there any relationship between this new propaganda trend
and the recent cooling down of Xi Jinping's personal worship by the authority?
The
two guests who participated in the discussion on the VOA program were: Mr. Wei
Jingsheng, Chairman of the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition; and Mr.
Xiaomin, the host of the "Mind of Xiaomin" program.
Xiaomin:
"Successor" Refers to the Socialist Successor in a Broad Sense
Xiaomin
believes that this so-called "successor" is more of an ideological
successor. This is the reaction or
conditioned reflex from the pressure exerted by the United States over China. It also shows that the CCP has no
confidence about the so-called socialist road. Not long ago, the CCP Politburo conference reviewed the
"Opinions on Requests to Vigorously Discover and Select Outstanding Young
Cadres as a Way to Adapt to the New Era" and issued a political announcement. In that announcement, it mentioned that
since the 18th Congress of the CCP the tasks related to the young cadres have
achieved remarkable results. This
sentence means that the term "successor" is not directly related to
the high-level personnel, because the 18th Congress of the CCP has already done
the job well. In addition, Xi
Jinping talked about succession a few days ago as a realization of the great
rejuvenation of the Chinese nation to uphold and develop socialism with Chinese
characteristics, with the key lying in the CCP and the people. To summarize, it is to cultivate
generations of reliable successors.
Xi Jinping's concept of "generations of reliable successors"
is obviously successors in an abstract sense, without specific direction and
arrangement. Xi Jinping also said
to the Communist Youth League that it must make training of socialist builders
and successors a fundamental task.
From here we can also see that the meaning of "successors" is
mainly socialist successors, i.e. successors on the ideological level, instead
of successors in the narrowly arranged personnel.
Xiaomin:
Recalling the "Honest Men" Reflects on the Bureaucracy Full of
Intrigue and Lack of Trust
Xiaomin
said, "To be an honest person, to tell the truth, and to do honest
things" was first proposed at the Daqing Oilfield. At that time, there were "Three
Honesties and Four Stricts".
"The Four Stricts" include strict requirements, strict
organization, strict attitude, and strict discipline. Therefore, what Xi Jinping proposed this time is not
something new, but these same "three honesties and four stricts" that
were particularly emphasized in the later period of the Cultural
Revolution. The reason was that
the people were generally tired of the political situation and adopted a
perfunctory practice, so the authorities really emphasized
"honesties." That is,
the more you lack honesties, the more you emphasize them. Today, "honest men" has once
again become the standard for cultivating successors. In fact, it reflects the basic ecology in the CCP's
officialdom; intrigue without trust.
Now, as Xi Jinping uses this remark from the Cultural Revolution period,
it might be related to his experiences during that time. Xi Jinping's ideological concept has
basically still stayed at the Cultural Revolution period, in the way that he
has "political autism".
He himself emphasizing "honesty" actually also reflects that
he is particularly worried about being blinded and deceived by others, due to
his lack of self-confidence and worry that his prestige may not be enough to
deter the important and high-level figures, and the CCP over all. "Absolute loyalty" is the
highest and positive standard for Xi Jinping, while an "honest man"
is minimum and a negative standard.
Xiaomin:
Xi Jinping May Favor Cadres of Less Seniority to Maintain Authority
Xiaomin
thinks that although Xi Jinping is now talking about "successors," it
does not eliminate people's doubts about his intention of tenure for rest of
his life. Xiaomin thinks
that "successors" is more of an ideological concept than a physical
successor instead of Xi Jinping is looking for someone to replace himself
with. However, Xiaomin added that
Xi Jinping may consider promoting some of the less senior cadres to replace
some of the highly qualified cadres who are currently in position, which is
conducive for maintaining his personal power and authority. The lighter the qualifications, the
easier to highlight his own authority.
This was also a well-used method by Mao Zedong during the Cultural
Revolution. At that time, Mao promoted
cadres with very low qualifications and low standards. Xiaomin therefore referred to a short
story of Mao Zedong to explain the issue of "successors." When Mao Zedong met with British Field
Marshal Bernard Montgomery for the first time, he said that our successor was
Liu Shaoqi. But after the great
famine in China, after Liu Shaoqi basically stabilized the economy, when Mao
met Montgomery again, he said that people like us have no successors. This is the real thought of Mao
Zedong. This sentence can also be
used to understand Xi Jinping today.
Wei
Jingsheng: The "Successor" is Fuzzy Compromise by Xi Jinping
Wei
Jingsheng, Chairman of the "Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition"
said that Xi Jinping has recently fallen into great difficulties. Xi's mentioning of "the
successor" may be a compromise tone, to suggest to these senior members of
the CCP and even the people of China who oppose his life long leadership
arrangement that Xi is still going to groom a successor. With this lifetime tenure system, there
would be no successor until death.
So this is a vaguely compromising tone, and it also reflects the
internal pressure he is now subjected to.
Xi should have made some compromises with the senior leaders within the
CCP.
Wei
Jingsheng: The Trade War Between China and the USA Is the CCP's Biggest
Dissatisfaction with Xi Jinping
Wei
Jingsheng said that recently, it was mentioned in the news that many people who
worked for Xi Jinping are doing something like "advanced blackmail",
which makes it elusive whether it's really an act of flattery or an
blackmail. So many things have
brought negative effects to Xi Jinping, and he may be very annoyed about
it. Yet it is hard to deal with
these things, because all these people are flattering him, and he likes to be
flattered. The more he is
flattered, the more he becomes dizzy and follows suit. This explains his stubborn
response to the US-China trade war this time. Now the reasons and excuses for those who oppose him within
the CCP is to say that he engages in personal dictatorship and engages in
personal worship. According to the
language system of the CCP, this is an area that is relatively easy to
criticize. But in fact, the main
reason for everyone's dissatisfaction is his practice in this trade war. Xi miscalculated the United States and
insisted to have this trade war, which has resulted in a very passive
situation. Everyone is really
dissatisfied. This dissatisfaction
is not only limited to the officialdom, nor limited to scholars; even the
average people are very disgusted.
Under such internal and external pressures, Xi may feel that he can't
afford it.
Wei
Jingsheng: This year's Beidaihe Conference May Be Aimed at Xi Jinping.
Wei
Jingsheng thinks that Xi Jinping should not have the "confidence"
that Mao Zedong had in the past.
During the CCP's 19th Congress, Xi may indeed have been more confident,
and thus rushed to make a lifelong tenure system for himself. Now with huge pressures both inside and
outside, his performance in recent days may be reflecting the decline of his
confidence. His current top
priority should be to get a "pass" degree. Under the pressure of internal and external forces, both
political and economic, how to survive is a big problem for him. The possible futures he faces are
either to continue as is, or enter "Hua Guofeng mode" or
"Gaddafi mode." This
year's Beidaihe conference is just as important as last year. Last year's Beidaihe conference was
mainly aimed at Wang Qishan. The
internal contradictions were fierce, and Wang Qishan arrested too many people,
which resulted in the situation of "officials forcing other officials to
rise to against them." So
they knocked Wang Qishan out, at least weakened his authority. During this year's Beidaihe conference,
the problem will be concentrated on Xi Jinping, because the trade war situation
he caused may cause the Chinese economy to collapse. If the economy collapses not only will the average Chinese
suffer, but also the corrupt officials' good life will end. This may lead to a situation in which
the whole CCP and the whole army will condemn him together. Although it is still not obvious at
present, the undercurrent is strong and the rumors are flying all over the
Internet. These kinds of rumors
show everyone's strong dissatisfaction, and also illustrate their different
hopes. The highest hope is that Xi
Jinping will step down, while the lowest hope is the "Hua Guofeng
model", with his power taken to avoid every Chinese having a nightmare.
YouTube
link of this VOA Issues and Opinion program: The Sudden Talk of Successors:
What Is the Intention of Xi Jinping?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1AUfY5WMp8&feature=youtu.be
or:
https://youtu.be/P04lexZL7Es
and:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/interviews/interviews2018/WeiJSonXiJPsuccessor180717VOAtalkshow.mp4
And
audio:
https://www.voachinese.com/pp/4486241/ppt0.html
Also:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/interviews/interviews2018/WeiJSonXiJPsuccessor180717VOAtalkshow.mp3
Original
link of this VOA report:
https://www.voachinese.com/a/voaweishi-20180717-io-suddenly-the-successor-is-stressed-what-is-xi-jinping-intention/4486248.html
Related
photos of Ning Xin and Wei Jingsheng in VOA studio:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2018/newsletters2018-3/NingXsitting180717WeiJS-c-4.jpg
http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2018/newsletters2018-3/NingXhandshaking180717WeiJS-c-4.jpg
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1127-W758
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1127-W758
Release
Date: July 22, 2018
发布日：2018年7月22日
Topic:
Wei Jingsheng Was Invited to the VOA Talk Show Issues and Opinions: The Sudden
Talk of Successors: What Is the Intention of Xi Jinping?
标题：魏京生参加美国之音《时事大家谈》：突然重提接班人，习近平用意何在？
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-07/WeiJSonXiJPsuccessor180722VOAtalkshowA1127-W758.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
时事大家谈：突然重提接班人，习近平用意何在？
2018年7月17日
23:11
-- 美国之音宁馨
华盛顿 -
习近平2012年上台以来，以反腐为由大肆清理党政军，逼退或者铲除政治对手，代之以忠诚于他的习家军。他在十九大进一步确立至高无上的地位，更在今年两会期间通过修宪取消国家主席任期制，成为名副其实的最高核心，并被外界认为可能成为终身领袖。但最近一段时间，中国官方频繁释放培养接班人的信号，引起外界的注意。官媒频频强调培养"可靠接班人"的重要性，用意何在？是否意味着习近平无意推行终身制？这个新的宣传动向，和最近当局为习近平个人崇拜降温有无系？
参加讨论的两位嘉宾是："中国民主运动海外联席会议"主席魏京生先生；自媒体"小民之心"主讲人小民先生。
小民："接班人"是指广义的社会主义接班人
小民认为，这次所谓的"接班人"更多是意识形态上的接班人。这是美国向中国施压之下中方作出的反应或条件反射。这也显现出中共对所谓的社会主义道路的不自信。前不久政治局开会审议了《关于适应新时代要求大力发现培养选拔优秀年轻干部意见》，并发布政治公告，其中提到，十八大以来，年轻干部工作取得了显著成效。这句话意味着，"接班人"的说法和高层的人事并无直接关联，因为十八大已经把该工作做好了。另外，前几天习近平就接班人问题在全国组织工作会议的说法是，实现中华民族伟大复兴，坚持和发展中国特色社会主义，关键在党，关键在人，归根到底在培养造就一代又一代可靠接班人。习近平这个"一代又一代可靠接班人"的概念显然是一个抽象意义上的接班人，并无具体指向和安排。习近平也对共青团说，必须把培养社会主义建设者和接班人作为根本任务，从这里我们也可看出，所说的"接班人"主要是社会主义的接班人，是思想意识层面上的接班人，而不是狭义的人事安排上的接班人。
小民：重提"老实人"折射尔虞我诈、缺乏信任的官场生态
小民说，"当老实人，讲老实话，做老实事"最早是大庆油田提出来的，当时有"三老四严"。"四严"包括严格的要求，严密的组织，严密的态度，严明的纪律。所以习近平这回提出的不是什么新东西，但这"三老四严"的说法在文革后期被特别强调了，原因在于，当时人民对政治形势普遍感到厌倦，采取敷衍做法，所以当时当局就十分强调"老实"。也就是，越缺乏什么就越强调什么。到了今天，"老实人"再次成为培养接班人的标准，实际上反映的是当今中共官场上普遍的尔虞我诈、毫无诚信的基本生态。习近平今天重拾文革时期的这一说法，应该和他在文革期间的那段经历有关。习近平的思想观念基本还停留在文革时期，几乎像是得了"政治自闭症"。他本人格外强调老实实际上也反映了他本人特别担心被别人蒙蔽和欺骗，反映他本人缺乏自信，觉得自己的威信可能还不足以威慑全党和高层人物。"绝对忠诚"是习近平的最高标准，一个积极的标准。"老实人"则是习近平的最低标准，一个消极的标准。
小民：习近平可能重用低资历干部以维护权威
小民认为习近平现在提"接班人"并不能消除人们对他搞终身制的怀疑。因为小民坚持认为"接班人"更多是个意识形态概念，而非习近平要找自己的接班人。但小民补充说，习近平有可能会考虑提拔一些资历更浅的干部以取代目前某些被重用的高资历的干部，这有利于他维护个人的权力和权威。因为资历越浅就越容易摆布，就越能突出其权威。这也是毛泽东文革时期的惯用手法，当时他提拔资历很浅，文化水平很低的干部。小民引述了一个毛泽东的小故事以说明"接班人"的问题。毛泽东在第一次会见英国陆军元帅蒙哥马利时曾说，我们的接班人是刘少奇。但等大饥荒过后，等刘少奇基本稳住经济之后，他再次见到蒙哥马利时又说，像我们这样的人，是没有接班人的。这才是毛泽东的真实想法。这句话，也可以用来理解今天的习近平。
魏京生：提"接班人"是习近平的模糊妥协
"中国民主运动海外联席会议"主席魏京生先生说，最近习近平陷入了很大的困难，他提"接班人"可能是一种妥协的口气，向反对其搞终身制的中共老人们甚至是全国人民暗示，你看我还是要培养接班人的。因为搞终身制就谈不到接班人了。所以这是种模模糊糊妥协的口气，也反映了他现在所受到的内部压力，他应该是向党内的老人们做了些妥协了。
魏京生：贸易战局面是党内不满习近平的最大原因
魏京生说，最近有新闻中提到，习近平手下很多人所干的事情像是"高级黑"，让人难以捉摸这是真拍他马屁还是在"黑"他。所以很多事情都给习近平本人带来的负面效果，他可能也对此很恼火。但他又不好处理此事，因为这些人毕竟是在拍他马屁，他又喜欢被拍马屁。当时他被拍得晕晕乎乎也就跟着做了类似的事，比如这次的贸易战上的嘴硬。现在党内反对他的理由和借口是说他搞个人独裁，搞个人崇拜。按照共产党的语言体系，这是个比较容易批评的方面。但实际上，大家主要是不满他在贸易战上的做法。他坚持非要打下去，错误地估计了美国，结果造成现在这种很被动的局面。大家其实对这一点非常不满，但这个不满已经不限于官场这些人，不限于学者了，包括老百姓都非常反感了。这样的内外压力之下，他可能就觉得有些吃不消了。
魏京生：今年北戴河会议可能针对习近平
魏京生认为现在的习近平应该没有当年毛泽东那样的"自信"了。十九大那段时间他可能确实比较自信，就贸然搞出终身制。而现在内外压力巨大，他最近几天的表现可能已体现其自信的衰退。他现在的头等大事应该是"过关"。在内外压力，政治、经济压力互相交错之下，如何挺过这个关口，是个大难题。他目前面临的几种可能前途是，要么继续原样当下去，要么"华国锋模式"，要么"卡扎菲模式"。今年的北戴河会议会和去年的一样重要。去年的北戴河会议大家主要针对王岐山。内部矛盾斗得激烈，王岐山抓了太多人，于是就造成"官逼官反"的局面，大家把王岐山搞掉了，至少削弱了他的职位。今年的北戴河会议，问题就会集中在习近平身上，因为他造成的贸易战局面可能会让中国经济崩溃。这就不仅是老百姓要吃亏，贪官污吏们也没好日子过了。这就可能造成全党全军共诛之的局面。目前虽然还不明显，但底下已暗流汹涌，网络上也已是谣言满天飞了。而这种种谣言就表现了大家的强烈不满情绪，也寄托了大家的各种不同希望。最高的希望就是习近平下台，最低的希望是"华国锋模式"，至少不要再让他掌权了，免得中国上上下下都没法过日子了。
YouTube链接：时事大家谈：突然重提接班人，习近平用意何在？
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1AUfY5WMp8&feature=youtu.be
或：
https://youtu.be/P04lexZL7Es
及：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/interviews/interviews2018/WeiJSonXiJPsuccessor180717VOAtalkshow.mp4
录音：
https://www.voachinese.com/pp/4486241/ppt0.html
及：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/interviews/interviews2018/WeiJSonXiJPsuccessor180717VOAtalkshow.mp3
此报道的原始链接：
https://www.voachinese.com/a/voaweishi-20180717-io-suddenly-the-successor-is-stressed-what-is-xi-jinping-intention/4486248.html
魏京生与美国之音宁馨在演播室：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2018/newsletters2018-3/NingXsitting180717WeiJS-c-4.jpg
http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2018/newsletters2018-3/NingXhandshaking180717WeiJS-c-4.jpg
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通讯地址：Wei Jingsheng Foundation, PO Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA
魏京生基金会及中国民主运动海外联席会议网址：WWW.weijingsheng.org
中国团结工会的网址为：www.ChinaLaborUnion.org
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