Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1130-W761



Release Date: August 5, 2018



Topic: Consequences of an Escalation of the Sino-US Trade War -- Wei Jingsheng

标题:贸易战升级的后果 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)



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Consequences of an Escalation of the Sino-US Trade War

-- Wei Jingsheng



As of now, there is a cheer or scream in the media, as the Sino-US trade war has once again escalated.  China's old trick of using currency depreciation to counter the trade wars has been cracked by the Americans' increase of tariff rates.  This is good news to the Chinese people, so the hyperinflation may not happen.  Although the Chinese currency has already depreciated a lot, under the pressure of the USA the Chinese government may stop keeping printing money, so ordinary Chinese can breathe more easily with a relief.


As Trump resolutely raised the tariff rate against Xi Jinping's tricks, he also threw out an olive branch.  According to the reports of the news media, negotiations under the table have not stopped.  Moreover, Trump also showed goodwill by stopping executing the Denial Order against ZTE.  The signals he released are that everything can be negotiated, but do not play tricks.  The trick-playing policy of violations even during the negotiations is not working anymore.


ZTE's model is very clear: if there are no practical measures to ensure implementation commitments, the United States will not accept a mode of saying something but accomplish nothing.  In the current China when the whole society lacks morality and is in a state of flexible enforcement of laws, any commitment or treaty can not be safeguarded.


The goal of the United States is of course to solve the huge trade deficit.  But now most Americans finally recognize the reality: China is a society without a legal system and no morality.  There is no point to get only promises to solve the deficit, as it can be regenerated tomorrow just after it was promised today, just as it has been happening for years.


When the United States questions all this conduct after the cumbersome procedures, the Chinese government can promise again, and it will continue to squander.  This is the old trick that China has played for decades.  For money, there is no morality,  As long as you earned money, you are a successful person.  Deng Xiaoping stated long ago: as far as the cat catches a mouse, it is a good cat regardless whatever means it takes.  Therefore, the commitments of the Chinese government never had credit.


This time, the Americans finally understood that punitive measures must accompany any accepting of commitments of the Chinese government, otherwise it would be meaningless.  Therefore, the goal of this trade war is to reform the judicial system in China, to insure the economy is accompanied by legal protections.  Only so, it is an acceptable market economy and it may possible to have fair trade.  Trade without legal guarantees is not a fair trade, but can only be plunder.  It is really too polite to say that they are mercantilist, which is not true.


Yet, Xi Jinping and his bureaucratic capitalists are unwilling to accept this reality.  They are unwilling to believe that the goal of the United States is fair trade.  Because if so, they lose their chance to make big money, they are not used to, nor are they willing to believe in reality.  The American capitalists also have the same mentality.  They are used to using an unfair legal system in China to take advantage of cheap and high-quality labor in China.  The common interest is their motivation to help the Chinese Communist Party put pressure on the United States.


Due to the shortcomings of the American democratic system, the capacity of the big capitalists in the USA should not be underestimated.  During this time, the pressure they put on the US Congress is gradually increasing, and the US Congress is preparing a bill to offset Trump's tariffs.  This is the source of Xi Jinping's confidence.  Although there are clear-minded officials in China, and although most people in China have seen that a trade war with the USA does not have chance of being won, the Communist regime representing the Chinese bureaucratic capitalists is unwilling to accept this reality and the trade war may continue for some time.


When will these stubborn bureaucrats accept the reality?  That is when the Chinese economy is not only stagnant, but has collapsed.  When the bureaucratic capitalists have no money to earn and are even on the verge of bankruptcy, they will gradually wake up.


But now the Chinese people have already suffered losses because of the trade war: the petty capitalists have fallen to the middle class, the middle class fell into the poor class, and the poor can hardly survive.  If the recession continues, how many people will have patience to wait for the wake up of the big capitalists and wait for Xi Jinping to change course?


Therefore, as there is no power within the Chinese government to change the current policy and legal system, the only result will be to change China by violent revolution.  It would be hard to avoid a huge turmoil in the Chinese society.  Some people, especially those officials at various levels who have blood on their hands, will inevitably end without proper burial.



To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:



(Written and recorded on August 4, 2018.  Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)



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Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1130-W761



Release Date: August 5, 2018



Topic: Consequences of an Escalation of the Sino-US Trade War -- Wei Jingsheng

标题:贸易战升级的后果 -- 魏京生


Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)









-- 魏京生




































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