Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1137-W767

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1137-W767

Release Date: September 2, 2018

发布日：2018年9月2日

Topic: Strange Public Opinions -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：奇怪的舆论 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Strange Public Opinions

-- Wei Jingsheng

A couple of days ago, I saw a strange commentary in the US media, saying that China is clearly at a disadvantage in the Sino-US trade war, yet the Chinese media insist that China has the upper hand. What surprised the author the most is that the Chinese people think that China has a disadvantage.

What makes him feel even more strange is that the American media are saying that China has the upper hand, that China has won or may win the trade war, and that many Americans would believe that. The error of these public opinions made him puzzled. I read the commentary and felt that I should explain to the readers the differences between China and the United States while I have the opportunity.

The truth is actually very simple. The Chinese people have long since distrusted the media, especially the official media. Many ordinary people have even learned an ultra-modern method of identification: to believe the opposite to what the media says. Then you will get it basically correct. If you are still stupid enough to believe in the Communist Party's media, then you are basically deceived. This is very different from the situation in American society.

In the past many years, due to the freedom of speech and publication in the United States, there were media with different colors. In a competitive environment, false news is difficult to survive, and it is convenient for ordinary people to distinguish. Therefore, Americans are accustomed to be convinced of the media's information, and do not have to be as careful as the Chinese - who would be deceived if they are not careful.

But the situation has changed recently. Since President Trump and the media launched a war of words, more and more people have begun to doubt American media and experts. These media and experts have been saying that the United States will lose the trade war with China, and the biggest victims of trade wars are American consumers. In short, they are helping Xi Jinping persuade the US voters to oppose the US president and to stop this war of fair trade.

But the people have found out that it is not true. The common Americans have to live, to buy food and clothing often. They found out that after China stopped buying agricultural products, the US food price went down. The common people suddenly found that their wallets swelled a little bit, and the price for clothing did not really increase either.

This is the same as the estimation of a few experts and media: the goods the United States imported from China can find alternative sources and will not become more expensive. It is just that the Chinese businessmen lost the US market. Businessmen from other countries immediately filled in. After all, it would be stupid if one is not making money when there is the opportunity. What is more, is that the US economy is accelerating its development - an opportunity that everyone has to seize.

What is the result of China's counterattack? It is said that China is also looking for alternative sources, but savvy businessmen know that this is impossible. The United States is the largest exporter of agricultural products, while China is the largest importer. The import and export of world agricultural products is basically balanced, yet China cannot not import agricultural products.

The agricultural exports of the other countries already have their own traditional market. If you suddenly got in, then they will raise the prices. If you offer ??more money, then they will sell to you while turn around to buy American goods to fill their own markets. The result is that the soybeans from the USA are cheaper than Brazil's, So Brazil fully satisfies China's need to sell high-priced soybeans to China and then turns around to buy US soybeans to satisfy its own market. The result is that the Chinese people have suffered a loss, while the Americans have no big losses. They do not have to worry their soybeans cannot be sold.

Instead, China suffers a double loss. The losses were all borne by Chinese consumers. This is why savvy merchants predict that China will lose and start planning for the future. The savvy of these businessmen is able to see the intransigence of Xi Jinping; to see the stubbornness of the Chinese bureaucratic capitalists who will not turn around. It will be too late to start running away by the time it cannot turn around. The Communist regime has now begun to cut the crops to harvest for itself, all the way from the big capitalists to the middle class. What can be expected besides the result of a collapse?

In the recent P2P incidents, the property of a large number of Chinese middle-class bourgeoisie were emptied overnight. There were people committing suicide by jumping off high rising buildings. There are protesters on the streets. There are petitioners going to Beijing and provincial capitals. Countless of them were detained and beaten by the Chinese police, just like the low-end population they once teased about.

These middle-class bourgeoisie in China were cultivated by Jiang Zemin as the basis of the Communist authoritarian regime. Once, they thought that they were attached to the bureaucratic capitalists and could used as sickles to harvest crops. Only now, they found out that they have been fattened to be the crops to be harvested. As wonderfully summarized by writer Lu Xun in his novel: How dare you to think that you have the same surname Zhao as your Master?

Original link of the RFA commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-09042018144556.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2018/WeiJS180828onStrangePublicOpinions.mp3

(Written and recorded on August 28, 2018. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1137-W767

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1137-W767

Release Date: September 2, 2018

发布日：2018年9月2日

Topic: Strange Public Opinions -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：奇怪的舆论 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-09/WeiJS180902onStrangePublicOpinionsA1137-W767.htm

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奇怪的舆论

-- 魏京生

前两天，在美国媒体上看到一篇奇怪的评论，说中美贸易战明明是中国占下风，而中国的媒体却硬撑着说中国占了上风。最让他奇怪的是，中国老百姓却认为中国占了下风。

更让他觉得奇怪的是，美国媒体都在说中国占了上风，赢了或者可能会赢，美国老百姓居然很多人相信。这样的舆论误差让他百思不得其解。我看了微微一笑，有机会必须给他们解释解释中美两国的不同。

道理其实很简单。中国老百姓早就不相信媒体了，特别是官方媒体。很多老百姓甚至学会了一种超现代的辨别法，媒体说什么你就反着看，基本正确。如果你还傻到相信共产党的媒体，那你就基本受骗。这和美国社会的情况非常不同。

在过去的很多年里，由于美国有言论出版的自由，有色彩不同的媒体，在竞争的环境之下，虚假消息很难存活，也方便老百姓比较辨别。所以美国人习惯于相信媒体的信息，不必像中国人那样细心辨别，一不小心就会上当受骗。

最近情况有了变化。自从川普总统和媒体展开口水战之后，越来越多的人开始怀疑美国的媒体和专家了。这些媒体和专家一直在说美国会输，贸易战最大的受害者是美国的消费者。总之就是帮助习近平说服美国选民，反对美国总统，停止这场公平贸易之战。

但是不对了。老百姓都要过日子，经常要买吃穿用品。他们发现中国停止购买农产品之后，美国的食品类全面降价。老百姓突然发现他们的钱包胀了那么一点点，服装类也并没有涨价。

这和少数专家媒体的估计一样：美国进口的商品都可以找到替代来源，不会涨价。只是中国商人失去了美国市场而已，其它国家的商人立刻就补充进来，毕竟有钱不赚王八蛋呀。何况美国经济正在加速发展，这么好的机会大家都要抓住。

而中国的反击带来什么结果呢？据说也在找替代来源，可是精明的商人们知道这不可能。美国是最大的农产品出口国，中国是最大的进口国，而且世界农产品的进出口基本平衡，中国不可能不进口农产品吧？

别的国家农产品出口有自己的传统市场，你突然挤进来那人家就抬高价格。多给钱就卖给你，空出来的市场就去买美国货。结果就是美国大豆比巴西便宜了一些，巴西充分满足中国高价收购，然后买美国大豆满足自己的市场。结果就是中国老百姓吃了亏，美国人没有什么大损失。不必担心大豆库存卖不出去。

中国反而赔了夫人又折兵，损失都是中国的消费者承担了。这就是精明的商人们预测中国必败，开始筹划后事的原因。商人们的精明还在于看出来习近平的顽固不化；看出来中国的官僚资产阶级的顽固不化；不撞南墙不回头。等到撞南墙的时候再开始逃跑就来不及了。共产党现在已经开始割韭菜了，从大资产到中产阶级一路割下来，不崩溃还能有什么结果呢？

最近发生的P2P事件，一大批中产小资们的财产一夜之间被清空了。跳楼者有之；游行抗议者有之；上访者有之；像那些曾经被他们嘲笑的低端人口一样，被警察殴打捆绑者更是不计其数。

这些被江泽民培养作为专制政权基础的中产小资，曾经以为自己依附在官僚资产阶级之下，是割韭菜的镰刀。现在才发现自己才是被养肥的韭菜，鲁迅先生说的精彩：你也配姓赵？

魏京生在自由亚洲电台评论的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-09042018144556.html