Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1141-W771

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1141-W771

Release Date: September 29, 2018

发布日：2018年9月29日

Topic: Where Will the China-US Trade War Be Going? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中美贸易战会走向何方? -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

Note: Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese parts of this release. If this mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request for special delivery to us or visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-09/WeiJS180929onChinaUStradewardirectionA1141-W771.htm which contains identical information.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Where Will the China-US Trade War Be Going?

-- Wei Jingsheng

Recently, the most concerning issue in the media, which is also what I have often been asked about, is which direction the development of the China-US trade war will go. Because of too many variables in this, it is difficult to give a conclusion. I can only provide some analysis from the development trend and the strength of the two sides for your reference.

Since the tax increase on 200 billion dollars of goods, a lot of media have screamed and cried, even with the argument that it will lead to a war between China and the United States, with the most sensational level being to a nuclear war. Of course, this is a nuclear blackmail carried out by the 50 cents army on the Internet hired by the Communist regime. Even the Communist government itself does not dare to say this, otherwise the consequences will be serious.

Will the trade war escalate to a political and military hot war between China and the USA? There is indeed such a possibility, because the Chinese Communist regime is both an unreasonable party and a party without ammunition. In the United States, both political parties have to agree with the majority of people; meanwhile President Trump is the most difficult politician to be subdued by money. Sticking to the trade war to the end can be said to be a goal difficult to change.

So what is the result if this fight continues according to Xi Jinping's current decision? As we have tasted this tea for a while, we should be able to tell the taste. Recently, famous scholars within the Chinese government institutions had a conference and were already criticizing Xi Jinping not too gently. That means even most people within the Communist Party can already see the result of this game. "When the nest is overturned, how could the eggs survive?" (a quotation by the 9 year old son of prodigy Kong Rong, as the father was arrested) Everyone has to die together with Xi Jinping.

Some time ago, Xi was boasting of high quality measures during the trade war. Recently he has carried this war without declaration, by stopping importing US goods and creating pressure on American companies in China. The result is that he lifted the rock to hit his own feet. A large number of Chinese and foreign companies have fled in China, followed by unemployment. This is even more damaging than the destructive power of the tax imposed by the USA, just like the self-castration in the Chinese martial arts novels. This kind of action is laughable and cannot even scare the others.

There was also another martial art example of self-castration, which is to reduce taxes on all imports except the United States. More foreign goods entering China will not expand the Chinese market. Why? Because it was originally intended to make Americans jealous. The American businessmen who made money in China would actively lobby the Congress and the administration to make them make compromises with Xi Jinping.

Regrettably, this move seems not to be working anymore. Wang Qishan has given so many favors to them in the past. But now he is asking people on Wall Street to come to Beijing to have a tour. These people on Wall Street are even not willing, but send deputies to deal with it. This shows that they are not optimistic about Xi Jinping's policy either. It is better to hide, instead of turning your back against him right in front of him.

The remaining high quality weapon left of the Communist regime is to make trouble on the North Korean issue. Therefore, Xi Jinping has already secretly resumed trade with North Korea. However, Kim Jong-un is really sneakier than his grandfather and father. While he is trading with Xi Jinping, he also plays warm and friendly with South Korea to get double benefits. Moreover, the North Korean issue is not as urgent for Americans and is not enough to force the United States to make concessions to China.

A remaining weapon Xi Jinping has is to enter a war. It has been said that China will attack Taiwan, or have a war in the South China Sea. There are even fanatic youths in China saying to attack India, etc. In short, it means to attack American allies, or stakeholders, as a way to force the United States to respond.

The problem is that from the perspective of strength, China is not an opponent to the USA at all. In addition, the United States has long been eyeing the wives, children and wallets of the Chinese officials. Recently, its sanctions against Li Shangfu, a lieutenant general of the People's Liberation Army, is a warning. Can Xi Jinping persuade his generals to fight against the United States? This is called "withdrawing firewood from under an already boiling cauldron".

So now the Chinese government and the bureaucratic bourgeoisie have only one way left: that is to negotiate with the United States. Come down stairs, talk and negotiate sincerely, honestly implement agreements without playing tricks, and maybe the trade war could be calmed and eased.

However, people often say that Chinese people love their faces more than anything else. The good friends of the Communist regime are also saying: If you do not give Xi Jinping face, this knot will not be solved. This may be their last reason. However, the Americans also want their faces and contents altogether, and they do not want to give in either.

Then there is only one way left: to oust Xi Jinping, and the let him take all the responsibility. Then China could negotiate and make concessions, as a stair to make to step down for itself. In democratic countries, this often happens.

Original link of the RFA commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-09262018160404.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2018/WeiJS180925onChinaUStradewardirection.mp3

(Written on September 25 and recorded on September 25, 2018. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

-----------------------------------------------------------------

This is a message from WeiJingSheng.org

The Wei Jingsheng Foundation and the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition are dedicated to the promotion of human rights and democratization in China. We appreciate your assistance and help in any means. We pledge solidarity to all who struggle for human rights and democratic governance on this planet.

You are welcome to use or distribute this release. However, please credit with this foundation and its website at: www.weijingsheng.org

Although we are unable to afford to pay royalty fees at this time, we are seeking your contribution as well. You may send your articles, comments and opinions to: HCP@weijingsheng.org. Please remember, only in text files, not in attachments.

For website issues and suggestions, you may contact our professional staff and web master at: webmaster@Weijingsheng.org

To find out more about us, please also visit our websites at:

www.WeiJingSheng.org and www.ChinaLaborUnion.org

for news and information for Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition and human rights and democracy movement as whole, especially our Chinese Labor Union Base.

You may contact Ciping Huang at: HCP@Weijingsheng.org or

Wei Jingsheng Foundation office at: 1-202-270-6980

Wei Jingsheng Foundation's postal address is:

Wei Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA

You are receiving this message because you had previous shown your interest in learning more about Mr. Wei Jingsheng and the Chinese Democratic Movement. To be removed from the list, simply reply this message and use "unsubscribe" as the Subject. Please allow us a few days to process your request.

*****************************************************************

中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1141-W771

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1141-W771

Release Date: September 29, 2018

发布日：2018年9月29日

Topic: Where Will the China-US Trade War Be Going? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中美贸易战会走向何方? -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-09/WeiJS180929onChinaUStradewardirectionA1141-W771.htm

-----------------------------------------------------------------

中美贸易战会走向何方?

-- 魏京生

最近媒体最关心的问题，也是我常被问到的，就是中美贸易战会向什么方向发展。因为其中的可变性太多，我很难给出结论。只能从发展趋势和双方的力量对比来做一些分析，以供大家参考。

自从二千亿加税开始，很多媒体就一片哀鸣，甚至中美必有一战的论调都回来了；最耸人听闻的已经说到了核战。当然，这是中共的五毛媒体帮助中共在进行核讹诈，中共自己不敢这么说，否则后果严重。

贸易战是否会升级到政治和军事的热战？确实有这种可能。因为中共既是没有道理的一方，也是没有弹药的一方。美国两党和上下大多数人意见一致，川普总统又是最难被金钱折服的政治家。把贸易战坚持到底，可以说是很难改变的目标。

那么按照习近平现在的决策继续打下去是什么结果呢？茶喝到这个时候，也应该喝出味儿来了。最近国内著名体制内学者们开会，已经在不太温和地批评习近平。也就是党内大部分人，都已经能看出这盘棋的结局了。覆巢之下，焉有完卵，大家都得给他陪葬。

前一段时间还在吹嘘什么质量型手段，最近其实已经不宣而战了。停止进口美国货并且给在华的美国企业制造压力，结果是搬起石头砸了自己的脚。大量中外企业纷纷外逃，接下来就是失业潮。这比美国的税收破坏力还大，就像武打小说里的自宫。连吓唬人都算不上，可笑。

还有一招自宫的武术，就是给所有进口减免税收，只排除美国。更多的外国商品进入中国，不会扩大中国市场。为什么呢？原来是为了让美国人眼红，那些在中国赚了钱的美国商人，会积极地游说议会和政府，向习近平妥协。

遗憾的是，这一招看来已经不灵了。王岐山过去给了人家那么多好处，现在找华尔街大佬来北京旅游，人家都躲着不见，派个副手啥的来应付应付。这说明他们也不看好习近平的政策，与其当面撕破脸，不如躲着不见。

中共剩下的质量型子弹，也只有在朝鲜问题上找麻烦了。所以习近平已经偷偷地恢复了和朝鲜之间的贸易。不过金正恩可真是比他爷爷和爸爸更狡猾，一面和小习贸易着，一面和韩国亲热着，两面通吃左右逢源。何况朝鲜问题对美国人来说并不紧迫，不足以迫使美国让步。

剩下的质量型子弹，就是打仗了。一会儿说打台湾，一会儿说打南海，还有愤青鼓动说要打印度等等。总之就是要攻击美国的盟友，或者利益相关者，迫使美国动手。

问题是从实力上看，中国根本就不是美国的对手。再加上美国早就盯上了中国官员的老婆、孩子和钱包，制裁李尚福中将就是个警告。习近平能说服他的将军们去和美国打仗吗？这叫釜底抽薪。

所以现在中国政府和官僚资产阶级只剩下了一条路，就是和美国谈判。放下架子，诚诚恳恳，说话算话地谈判；老老实实地执行协议不玩花招，也许可以平息这场贸易战。

可是人们常说中国人好面子，中共的好朋友们也在说：不给习近平面子，这个死结就解不开。这可能是他们的最后理由了。遗憾的是，美国人可是里子面子都要，也不想再让步了。

那就只剩下一个办法了：把习近平赶下台，责任都推给他。然后再谈判让步，就是中国自己给自己找一个台阶下。民主国家经常这么干。

魏京生在自由亚洲电台评论的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-09262018160404.html