Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1189-W817



Release Date: February 17, 2019



Topic: The Future Direction of Sino-US Relations (part 1) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题:今后中美关系的走向(之一) -- 魏京生


Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)



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The Future Direction of Sino-US Relations (part 1)

-- Wei Jingsheng



Since President Trump agreed with (Chinese vice premier) Liu He, who pushed the responsibility of trade negotiations to Xi Jinping, most of the media and think tanks have optimistic estimates of the results.  Judging from the past performance of President Trump, it is indeed likely that he could make wrong decisions when he is fooled by Xi Jinping when they met.  People's evaluations do make sense.


Assuming that this time Xi Jinping's conspiracy succeeds and the Sino-US trade war is once again delayed, then what would be the result?  The schemes of Xi Jinping and Liu He have been to delay until the election campaign, then to give a fatal blow and end Trump's (political) life.


This is the general operating method of the delaying strategy.  In particular, Xi Jinping's term in office is unlimited, while Trump has less than two years left in his tenure.  Thus Xi's possibility of success should be high, and some people even think that he will be successful for sure.  Therefore, Xi Jinping will carry out this trick.


Now let's take a look as what the following moves will be after Xi Jinping's success.


The first step: Originally Trump was a businessman, who cared relatively more about the short-term phenomenon of the stock market, so Xi Jinping promised him to buy more soybeans and other commodities, temporarily raising the expectations of the stock market.  Thus, Trump will agree to the request of his "good friend" and no longer raise the tariff rate, thus the trade war will drag on further.


After Xi Jinping won this round, he will concentrate on eliminating and suppressing the democratic and liberal reformists within the Chinese Communist Party and in the Chinese society, meanwhile continuing his "socialist reform".  The Chinese economy will continue to decline, yet be corrupted without collapse, as some economists have estimated; it will maintain for some time.


The second step: Xi Jinping delays more until a little more than half year before the next presidential election, and when the election campaign begins the agreement between the USA and China will be torn up, as he repeats old tricks to strike against the farm belt where Trump and the Republican Party gain their votes.  Then, on one side the Chinese economy will fall to the point that it must be reversed, and Xi Jinping's prestige will fall sharply.  On the other side President Trump needs to gain the trust of voters, otherwise he will definitely step down.


This action would result both in a strike against Trump's voters and the improvement of Xi Jinping's prestige, like one stone to hitting two birds, in an effort to force Trump to step down while Xi Jinping continues his socialist reform.  At this time, the possibility that his "good friends", who never honor his credit, will help President Trump is only zero.  In various chess terms, this is the step one must take.  Only the mentally retarded would not take this step.


The third step: Xi Jinping wins a full victory while President Trump steps down.  This would make the reformists within the Communist Party and within the Chinese society even more vulnerable.  Xi Jinping is more in a position to realize his ideals.  China's economy and politics will all be stepping back and the social crisis will become even more acute.  Various possibilities that seem impossible now will become possible.


In addition to striking the US economy, external expansion and competition with the US for control will become issues that must be considered.  By then, the success of the external expansion and the rise of the great powers will be the necessity for Xi Jinping's expanded self-esteem, which is also the necessity of solving the domestic crisis.  He was eager to try even when the conditions were not ready.  Now as the condition is ready, why not?  By then, it will not be curbed.


However, this is just a chess play calculated by Xi Jinping.  One of the steps is definitely wrong.  This is that the end of Trump's presidency is not equal to the end of the trade war.  That is because forcing China's structural reforms to enable trade fairness, has already become the consensus of both political parties and the people of the United States.  Therefore, the candidates for the next presidential election in the US will play more Trump than Trump himself.  Moreover, the person who becomes the new president for the US will learn the lesson from Trump being swayed by the Communist Party, and will be more serious when one is in power.  In other words, the trade war will be more intense, and it will not stop until it is successful.  That is because this is the general trend.


By then, China's economic and political situation will be even weaker, and the conditions for a forced reform will be even worse.  Economic collapse and political coups are almost inevitable, and peaceful transition would be almost impossible.  So instead of delaying until then, it is better off to surrender now.  It is in China's best interest to start structural reforms immediately, thus to enable China's politics and economy to get on the right track gradually.


Long pain is worse than short pain.  Xi Jinping should thank Trump to be the most moderate opponent.  As President Trump himself said: No one could play a better rogue that the Americans.  So it is better to do something right now, instead of playing the little tricks of the thief in the Chinese style.



Original link of this commentary on RFA:



To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:



(Written and recorded on February 6, 2019.  Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)



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Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1189-W817



Release Date: February 17, 2019



Topic: The Future Direction of Sino-US Relations (part 1) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题:今后中美关系的走向(之一) -- 魏京生


Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)









-- 魏京生











































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