Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1260-W876

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1260-W876

Release Date: Nov. 12, 2019

发布日：2019年11月12日

Topic: The Development Trend of Hong Kong Protests and Demonstrations -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：香港抗议游行的发展趋势 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

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The Development Trend of Hong Kong Protests and Demonstrations

-- Wei Jingsheng

The protests by the people of Hong Kong have continued for nearly half a year, and police violence has intensified. The shootings are constantly happening, the deaths are growing, and the people's anger is hard to contain. The violence on both sides is escalating. The protesters with legitimate demands and officials with power using violence are deadlocked. In what direction will things go? The whole world is paying attention now.

Regarding the situation of China, the United States and Hong Kong, I will start from the Hong Kong side first.

More than 20 years after Hong Kong's return to China, its politics, economy, and justice have already been severely eroded by the Communist regime. The people in Hong Kong clearly feel that freedom and security are far less than the time under British rule, almost to an unbearable level. This year, the judicial amendments in Hong Kong led by the Communist regime finally crossed the bottom line of the Hong Kong people and caused a strong rebound. This was the cause of the Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill Movement in Hong Kong.

The so-called Extradition Law Amendment Bill was actually the plan of the Communist regime's party-governing justice in Hong Kong. What the CCP had changed in the past was only the ability to govern and the judicial members. What is now being changed is the judicial system, or the governance system. The Communist regime wants to change the legal system left by the British into a system of one-party dictatorship. Thus the people of Hong Kong will not just lose their wallets, but all their basic rights and interests. This was the bottom line for the people of Hong Kong and gave them no way to retreat any further.

The Communist Party's plan to change Hong Kong's governance system has no good reason, and it violates its own commitment of "one country, two systems". In terms of interests, the loss of Hong Kong's special status in the international arena is a huge loss to the mainland's economy and operation of private capital, including state-owned capital. It hurts others and does not benefit themselves. So it can only be said that some populism politicians have lost their minds.

But now the Communist regime that has done no goodness has left only the nationalism to be its game. The stubborn forces within the Communist regime only worship their guns and insist on doing things that are detrimental to themselves and not beneficial to the others. At least for now, they are not ready to give in, but choose escalating police violence hoping to scare the people of Hong Kong.

When these two aspects are unwilling to give in, the attitude of the international community, especially the United States, has become the only variable that affects the situation. The national resistance movement in China in 1989 evolving into a bloodshed failure was due to elder President George H. W. Bush having sent the wrong signal to China which became a key factor. Politicians know that but are not willing to talk about it.

What people are worried about now is that President Trump may betray the people of Hong Kong for economic reasons. Although the US Congress is passing the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, and although President Trump issued a statement in support of the people of Hong Kong, in recent days, the White House and Congress have softened their arguments. They did not condemn the escalation of violence by the Hong Kong police, but instead urged the protesters in the self-defending position to stop their resistance with force. This objectively sent a wrong signal to the hardliners in the Communist regime, which has led to further escalation of police violence in the past few days.

Most politicians in the United States are aware that the struggle of the people of Hong Kong is actually a duel of the world's democracy and freedom camp against the authoritarian dictatorship. Some senators have identified Hong Kong's police violence as the 2.0 version of the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989. Both political parties are also urging the Senate to speed up the passage of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. If the White House gives up its support to the people of Hong Kong because of trade negotiations, it will make a huge mistake.

If the Communist regime in China wins in Hong Kong, it will be a victory against the entire camp of democracy and freedom. The confidence of the hardliner faction will be greatly increased. How can it implement that incomplete so-called phased trade agreement? Moreover, the Communist regime has no intention to implement the promises, with its tradition of not carrying out its promises. After it solves the issue of Hong Kong and then concentrates on deceiving Trump, it may have greater odds to win.

From the development of the current situation, if the United States continues to proceed from its good intentions and lets Xi Jinping get what he wants, the failure in Hong Kong will lead to a disadvantage of the USA in the trade war. It will take time to overcome this disadvantage, which would result in the likely loss of Republican Party's election next year.

If Trump changes his strategy, giving full support to Hong Kong's struggle and sticking to his good agreement rather than a phased agreement, the Communist regime will have the disadvantage of fighting both sides of the battlefield. The rapid decline of the domestic economic and political situation in China will force Xi Jinping to compromise. This will be good news for the democracy and freedom camp, for the Hong Kong people, and for the US-China trade war.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-11122019125656.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS191111onHKtrend.mp3

(Written and recorded on Nov. 11, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on Nov. 12.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1260-W876

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1260-W876

Release Date: Nov. 12, 2019

发布日：2019年11月12日

Topic: The Development Trend of Hong Kong Protests and Demonstrations -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：香港抗议游行的发展趋势 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-11/WeiJS191112onHKtrendA1260-W876.htm

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香港抗议游行的发展趋势

-- 魏京生

香港人民抗议示威已经延续了近半年，警察暴力愈演愈烈。枪击事件在不断发生，死亡的案例在不断增长，人民的愤怒情绪难以遏制。双方的暴力在升级，有理的抗议者和有权力使用暴力的官方僵持不下。事情将向什么方向发展？全世界都在关注。

就中、美、港三方的形势，我先从香港方面谈起。

香港回归中国二十多年来，政治、经济、司法被共产党侵蚀得已经非常严重。人民明显感觉自由和保障远远不如英国统治时期，差不多到了难以忍受的程度。今年中共在香港制造的司法修例风波，终于触及了香港人民的底线，造成强烈反弹。这就是反送中浪潮的起因。

所谓的修改逃犯条例，实际上是中共计划在香港推行党管司法。过去改变的只是治理能力和司法人员，现在准备改变的是司法体系，或者说治理体系。把英国人留下来的法制体系改变成为一党专政的体系，香港人民损失的就不仅仅是钱包，而是所有的基本权利和利益。这就是香港人民退无可退的底线。

共产党方面计划改变香港的治理体系，仅仅是一些虚无的理由，而且违反他们自己承诺的一国两制。从利益上讲，失去了香港在国际上的特殊地位，对大陆的经济和私人资本，包括国有资本的运作，都是个巨大的损失。损人而又不利己，只能说是一些民粹主义政客们昏了头了。

但现在的中共乏善可陈，只剩下民族主义一条瘸腿了。党内顽固势力迷信他们的枪杆子，坚持要干损人不利己的傻事。至少目前他们还不准备退让，导致警察暴力不断升级，期望能吓退香港人民。

这两个方面都不愿意退让，国际社会特别是美国的态度，就成为左右局势的唯一变数了。八九年那场全民反抗运动之所以演变成血流成河的失败，是因为老布什总统发出了错误的信号，成了关键因素。政治家们都看得明白，只是不愿意说而已。

现在人们担心的，正是川普总统出于经济利益的考虑，出卖香港人民。虽然美国国会正在通过香港人权法案，虽然川普总统发表过支持香港人民的声明，但是最近几天白宫和国会的说法有所软化；他们没有谴责香港警察的暴力升级，反而敦促出于自卫地位的抗议群众停止暴力反抗。这在客观上就是给中共内的强硬派发出了错误的信号，导致几天来警察暴力的进一步升级。

美国大多数政治家都意识到香港人民的抗争，实际上是世界自由民主阵营和专制独裁共产主义的决斗。有参议员已经把香港的警暴定性为天安门屠杀的2.0版，两党议员也都在敦促参议院加快通过香港人权法案。白宫如果因为贸易谈判而放弃对香港人民的支持，将会犯下重大的错误。

中共如果在香港取得胜利，就是对整个民主自由阵营的胜利。强硬派信心大增，怎么会执行那个残缺不全的所谓阶段性贸易协议呢？何况中共本来也没打算执行承诺，而且有说了不算的传统。解决了香港再集中力量欺骗川普，胜算可能更大一些。

从目前的形势发展来看，美国如果继续从善良的愿望出发，放习近平这一马，香港的失败将导致贸易战中美国处于劣势。想要改变这个劣势需要时间，共和党明年的大选就没希望了。

如果川普改变策略，全力支持香港的抗争，并坚持他的好的协议而非阶段性协议，中共将不得不处于两面战场都吃紧的劣势。快速下滑的国内经济和政治局势，将迫使习近平做出妥协。对民主自由阵营，对香港人民和对中美贸易战，这都将是利好的消息。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-11122019125656.html