Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1262-W878

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1262-W878

Release Date: Nov. 17, 2019

发布日：2019年11月17日

Topic: The Aftermath of the CCP's Fourth Plenary Session of Its 19th Congress -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中共19届四中全会之后果 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

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The Aftermath of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party

-- Wei Jingsheng

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which had been delayed for more than a year, has finally come to an end. The various discussions and predictions before the session were confusing, and the majority of people were very disappointed after the session. In fact, this is not surprising. When it was delayed for more than a year, it already meant that things could not be settled. As the session bore no result, it illustrates that things are still not settled. The more hope people had, the more disappointed they will be. So they should not blame that on the CCP.

What were the hopes and disappointments? There are three major points, arranged in an order of importance: the first is the trade war between the USA and China; the second is the domestic economic recession in China; the third is the protest in Hong Kong. The communique released by the 4th plenary session only talked about the Hong Kong issue, and said that it is necessary to strengthen the crackdown while acknowledging that the Basic Law of Hong Kong is effective, which are both ambiguous and self-contradictory.

But the communique directly ignored the most important and second important issues. What does that mean? That is to say the argument was fierce, and there was no result produced. If no one can make a decision, they better shut up. This is a rare phenomenon in the history of the Chinese Communist Party. Next, I'm afraid they will do what they choose for themselves, with rough riding. This will be the biggest show ahead.

Before the Fourth Plenary Session that could make things very difficult for Xi Jinping, Liu He came to the United States to fool President Trump. Trump was also threatened by his impeachment and was eager to get trade negotiations to save his day. So he lowered his gestures and gave up his rhetoric in preparation to sign the so-called phased trade agreement, even though everyone estimates that after signing the phased agreement, there will be no best agreement that Trump brags about. However, Liu He still succeeded in using the agricultural products to fool Trump, which does not count anymore after the 4th plenary session.

Since Trump is so easily to be deceived, why should the Communist regime carry out structural reform in China? The reformists in China had to shut up. The consequence is that China has lost a good opportunity for reform and opening up. Therefore, the communique of the 4th Plenary Session clearly affirmed the retrogressive policy of the planned economy was still in charge, assisted by the market economy. Although the language is more modern, the content is still that retrogressive old policy of 30 years ago.

In fact, the CCP had not only used agricultural products to fool Trump, but also the so-called financial opening. This opening should be a true opening, and of course with conditions for exchange. In the United States, there has been talk for years of Chinese listed companies having gained more than $1 trillion dollars from the USA relying on deception. Recently, there has been a possible turnaround, as once the various swindler companies from China were delisted from the stock market in the USA, the CCP would lose its opportunity to fatten its bureaucratic class by transfusions from the USA.

With open finance in exchange, perhaps the bigwigs on Wall Street will take action to curb the US government's measures to cut off money transfusion. It can also further absorb the hard-earned money of the Americans to solve the economic recession in China. Are they not happy to get this double gain with one action of harming the others while benefiting themselves? This might be a good idea for Liu He and others who studied in the USA.

Unfortunately, they can lie to people for a while, but not to lie forever. Trump and his assistants also had business as their career. Once this conspiracy is discovered, retaliation will be more severe. Most Americans also don't want others to reach into their wallets. This conspiracy will not last long. This is not something that can be achieved by buying out a few people on Wall Street who benefit.

Many experts have already come to the conclusion that the current economic downturn in China can not be concealed by statistical fraud; it is not caused by the US-China trade war; it is the inevitable result of China's own political structure and economic model. Without comprehensive reform of the political and economic system, and without solving structural problems, the decline in China will not only continue, but also will accelerate.

The collapse of the economy, the oppression of politics, and the lack of the rule of law will continue to deteriorate after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CCP. Social contradictions will also be aggravated. The Chinese people are finding it hard to survive and even the Chinese officials have difficulties. Now the exploitation puts even Chinese business in trouble. In addition, the Xi Jinping clique has modernized its suppression and monitoring in China, which only added another layer of hardship. This is the rhythm to repeat the "rebellion by the people because of the suppression of the officials" in the Chinese history.

When the people are forced to rebel, will they be peaceful, rational and non-violent with the oppressors? Since these officials are not willing to force Xi Jinping to change his course, then there will be a day when they die together with him without a burial place. Maybe some people cannot even wait until that day, as they would be used as scapegoats in the name of fighting against corruption. History tells us that the Communist regime has always been even more vicious, cruel and unreasonable when they are dealing with and sell out their own kind than what they do to outsiders.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-11042019151622.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS191103onCCP19th4plenary.mp3

(Written November 2 and recorded on Nov. 3, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on Nov. 4, 2019.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1262-W878

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1262-W878

Release Date: Nov. 17, 2019

发布日：2019年11月17日

Topic: The Aftermath of the CCP's Fourth Plenary Session of Its 19th Congress -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中共19届四中全会之后果 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-11/WeiJS191117onCCP19th4plenaryA1262-W878.htm

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中共19届四中全会之后果

-- 魏京生

中共拖延了一年多的四中全会终于结束了。会前各种议论和预测纷纷扰扰，不一而足；会后却让大多数人非常失望。其实这不奇怪，拖延一年多就说明大家都搞不定，会后没结果就说明仍然还是搞不定。大家希望太大于是也就失望太大，别怪人家共产党。

希望和失望的是什么呢？三大看点，按重要顺序排列：第一是贸易战；第二是国内经济衰退；第三是香港抗议。全会公报只谈到香港问题，而且一边说要加强镇压，一边承认了基本法有效。模棱两可，自相矛盾。

在最重要和第二重要的问题上，直接就忽略了。什么意思呢？就是说争论激烈，没整出一个结果，谁说了都不算，只好闭嘴。这倒是中共历史上少见的现象。接下来恐怕也就各行其是，急转直下了。这才是今后一段时间的最大看点。

对习近平要命的四中全会前，刘鹤到美国来忽悠了川普总统。川普也是受到了弹劾的威胁，急于得到贸易谈判来挽回颓势。于是就放下了身段，放弃了豪言壮语，准备签署所谓的阶段性协议。虽然大家都估计签署阶段性协议之后，就不会有老川吹嘘的最好的协议了。但刘鹤还是成功地用农产品忽悠了老川，全会一开就马上说话不算话了。

既然川普这么容易骗，那为什么还要结构性改革呢？改革派不得不闭嘴了。后果就是中国又失去了一次改革开放的好机会。所以公报里言之凿凿地肯定了计划经济为主，市场经济为辅的倒退政策。虽然语言表述比较现代化了，内容仍是倒退三十年的老政策。

其实忽悠老川的不仅仅是农产品，还有所谓的金融开放。这个开放应该是真实的开放，当然也是有交换条件的。美国社会议论多年的中国上市公司在美国依靠欺骗圈了一万多亿美元，最近有了可能的转机。一旦各种骗子公司被股市摘牌，中共就失去了靠美国输血养肥官僚资产的机会。

用开放金融来交换，也许华尔街的大佬们会采取行动，遏制美国政府切断圈钱的措施。还可以进一步吸收美国老百姓的血汗钱，来解决中国经济衰退的问题。一举两得，损人利己，何乐而不为呢？这可能是留学美国的刘鹤等人想出来的好主意吧。

遗憾的是，你能够骗人于一时，不能骗人于永远。川普和他的助手们也是做生意出身的，一旦发现这个阴谋，报复会更加严厉。而且大多数的美国人，也不愿意别人把手伸进自己的钱包。这个阴谋不会维持太久。这不是收买几个华尔街的得利者就能得逞的。

正如很多专家们得出的结论那样：中国如今的经济下滑不是靠统计作假能够掩盖的；也不是美国的贸易战造成的；而是中国自己的政治结构和经济模式的必然结果。不进行政治和经济体制的全面改革，不解决结构性的问题，下滑不但会继续，而且还会加速。

经济的崩溃，政治的压迫，法制的缺失，在四中全会后将继续恶化。社会矛盾也将因此加剧，民不聊生加上官不聊生，现在割韭菜已经割得商不聊生。而习近平集团还要雪上加霜，搞他的镇压监控现代化，这个节奏就是历史上所说的官逼民反了。

把老百姓逼反了，老百姓会和你们这些压迫者和平理性非暴力吗？既然你们不愿意逼迫习近平改弦更张，就等着和他一起死无葬身之地吧。也许有些人等不到那一天，就会被当作替罪的羔羊反腐败了。历史告诉我们，共产党收拾和出卖自己人，从来都比对外人更凶恶，更残忍，更不讲理。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-11122019125656.html