Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1331-W946

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1331-W946

Release Date: November 4, 2020

发布日：2020年11月4日

Topic: Xi Jinping's Waterloo -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的滑铁卢 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

Note: Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese parts of this release. If this mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request for special delivery to us or visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2020/report2020-11/WeiJS201104onXiJPwaterlooA1331-W946.htm which contains identical information.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Xi Jinping's Waterloo

-- Wei Jingsheng

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is closed. What disappointed the Hong Kong and Taiwan media was that it did not find an heir for Xi Jinping. A statement of finding an heir for Xi would actually be to guide the direction of the wind and let most people put their hopes on a false goal, thus ignoring the real concerns. So what are the real concerns? Please read the following analysis.

What is Xi Jinping's main focus at this stage? The ongoing economic recession in China. What is his countermeasure? It would be “self-reliance” and the advance of the country while the Chinese people retreat, thus composing a domestic cycle in China. Ha-ha, we can live well without you America. At the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Congress of the CCP, the opposition within the CCP was still able to wrote down: We must actively create a new type of international relations, a dual cycle of internal and external, and so on. The other idioms are just embellishments. This is an effective counterattack against Xi Jinping's brutal ways and his possible return to a planned economy.

What other concerns does Xi Jinping have? Wolf Warrior Diplomacy with two characteristics: a tough stand against the United States and threats against Taiwan. However, the Fifth Plenary Session Communiqué stating to actively create a new type of international relations, along with the statement to promote cross-strait relations and peaceful reunification with Taiwan, can be said to have slapped Xi Jinping’s face. Although it may seem to be an understatement, it has the essence that serves as the brakes on the more than one decade of threats to Taiwan.

The expression of Hong Kong policy has also changed, with emphasis on the need to maintain Hong Kong's prosperity. This is a different opinion to Xi Jinping's forceful suppression of Hong Kong. It may be related to the recent high-profile comeback of Zhu Rongji and Wang Qishan. But there is no specific statement. If the suppression continues and results in the abolishment of the legal system and free environment in Hong Kong, then the so-called maintaining prosperity will become nonsense. On the premise that the United States and Europe no longer grant Hong Kong special treatment, what can be done to restore prosperity there? Use Shenzhen to replace Hong Kong? How could it be possible? This is only a fantasy of Mao Zedong's style, without a touch to reality.

The rest of the statements are the clichés and nonsense that everyone has no objection to. This is just like what Ms. Cai Xia said: without taking off the shell of the CCP, there can be no real reform. Can these minor repairs save the decline of the CCP? Obviously not. Why? Please see the following analysis.

As the saying goes, it is easier to learn bad and hard to learn good. Xi Jinping’s wolf warrior diplomacy in recent years has brought the CCP’s reputation and credibility to an extremely low point. The friends that the CCP has inserted all over the world are not very good to speak in favor of the CCP to help it. Anti-Communist has become the new political correctness in the United States and will soon spread to the world. Will the CCP to be able lie to the others and thus to fool them again by simply saying a few words about wanting to be friendly again? It seems unlikely. Even if Joe Biden is elected as the President of the United States, the majority of the Democratic Party will not allow him to return to the past appeasement policy.

Will the claim of “we do not want to restore the internal cycle of the planned economy of Mao Zedong” work? But without fair trade, will others continue to tolerate being taken advantage of? Can the policy of relying on crude manufacturing and subsidies in order to occupy the international market be maintained? Can those Chinese companies that are used to unfair trade really adapt to a fair environment? The cheap labor of the Chinese people is an advantage in foreign trade, yet it is also a dead spot for bad internal consumption. With insufficient internal consumption and hindered external dumping, with the problems be solved by only relying on those tall and loud slogans? It would be like painting cakes in order to overcome hunger.

This time the Fifth Plenary Session had only one interesting issue, which was about a peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue. Xi Jinping was really fooled by the flatterers and advanced hackers. He really thought that a war against Taiwan, which was protected by the United States, could be easily won. Since this year, Xi Jinping’s threats to Taiwan have risen to a quasi-war state. Even some hawkish Chinese generals who have not yet been confused had to tell the truth: this card should not be played, otherwise the battle will end in defeat. By then, it will not only be a disaster for the Communist regime, but also a disaster for the Chinese and Taiwanese people. Stopping Xi Jinping's brainless madness and returning to a realistic and sober peace policy is the only highlight of this Fifth Plenary Session.

Although this Fifth Plenary Session failed to prevent the Communist regime from kidnapping the Chinese people and sliding into the abyss, there was a sound slap on Xi Jinping over his most proud crazy policy that he thought could be remembered forever. Thus an irreversible disaster was avoided. It can be said to be the victory of the weak opposition within the CCP, thus could be called the Waterloo of Comrade Xi.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-10302020162118.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2020/WeiJS201030onXiJPwaterloo.mp3

(Written and recorded on October 30, 2020. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on November 1, 2020.)

-----------------------------------------------------------------

This is a message from WeiJingSheng.org

The Wei Jingsheng Foundation and the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition are dedicated to the promotion of human rights and democratization in China. We appreciate your assistance and help in any means. We pledge solidarity to all who struggle for human rights and democratic governance on this planet.

You are welcome to use or distribute this release. However, please credit with this foundation and its website at: www.weijingsheng.org

Although we are unable to afford to pay royalty fees at this time, we are seeking your contribution as well. You may send your articles, comments and opinions to: HCP@weijingsheng.org. Please remember, only in text files, not in attachments.

For website issues and suggestions, you may contact our professional staff and web master at: webmaster@Weijingsheng.org

To find out more about us, please also visit our websites at:

www.WeiJingSheng.org and www.ChinaLaborUnion.org

for news and information for Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition and human rights and democracy movement as whole, especially our Chinese Labor Union Base.

You may contact Ciping Huang at: HCP@Weijingsheng.org or

Wei Jingsheng Foundation office at: 1-202-270-6980

Wei Jingsheng Foundation's postal address is:

Wei Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA

You are receiving this message because you had previous shown your interest in learning more about Mr. Wei Jingsheng and the Chinese Democratic Movement. To be removed from the list, simply reply this message and use "unsubscribe" as the Subject. Please allow us a few days to process your request.

*****************************************************************

中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1331-W946

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1331-W946

Release Date: November 4, 2020

发布日：2020年11月4日

Topic: Xi Jinping's Waterloo -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的滑铁卢 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2020/report2020-11/WeiJS201104onXiJPwaterlooA1331-W946.htm

-----------------------------------------------------------------

习近平的滑铁卢

-- 魏京生

中共的十九届五中全会闭幕了。让港台媒体大失所望的是，它没有给习近平找到一位继承人。这个给小习找一位继承人的说法，实际上就是带风向，让大多数人把希望放在一个虚妄的目标上，从而忽略了真正的关注点。那么什么是真正的关注点呢？请看以下分析。

现阶段习近平的主要关注点是什么呢？经济衰退。他是什么对策呢？自力更生，国进民退，国内大循环。哈哈，不靠你美国我们也能活。而五中全会上，党内反对派还是写上了：要积极营造新型国际关系，内外双循环等等。其它的套话不过是点缀而已。这是对习近平蛮干和可能回到计划经济的有效反击。

习近平还有什么关注点呢？战狼外交。两个特点；对美强硬及对台威胁。而五中全会公报中的要积极营造新型国际关系，和推进两岸关系，和平统一的表述，可以说是打了习近平一个耳光。虽然看似轻描淡写，但有实质内容，是对十几年来对台湾围追堵截加威胁动作的刹车。

对香港政策的表述也有所改变，强调要维持香港的繁荣。这是对习近平强力镇压香港的不同意见。可能和朱镕基、王岐山的高调复出有关。但是没有具体表述。如果继续镇压，取消了香港的法制和自由环境，所谓保持繁荣就成了废话。在美国和欧洲都不再给予香港特殊待遇的前提下，拿什么恢复繁荣？用深圳代替香港？怎么可能？这是毛泽东式的，不着实际的幻想。

剩下的就是大家都没意见的，共产党语境的套话、废话和屁话。这正像蔡霞女士所说的，不丢掉共产党这个外壳，就不可能有真正的改革。这些小修小补能挽救共产党的衰落吗？显然不能。为什么呢？请看下列分析。

俗话说，学坏容易学好难。习近平这几年的战狼外交，已经使中共的名声和信用跌到了极低点。共产党在世界各地渗透的朋友们，已经不太好帮助共产党说话了。反共在美国已经成为新的政治正确，很快就会扩散到全世界。轻描淡写地说几句我们还想恢复友好，就可以骗人家再上当吗？好像不太可能。即使拜登当选，民主党的大多数也不会允许他回到过去的绥靖政策。

轻描淡写地说说：我们不想恢复毛泽东的计划经济内循环。但是没有公平贸易，别人会继续容忍你占便宜吗？靠粗制滥造和补贴占领国际市场的政策还能维持下去吗？那些习惯了不公平贸易的企业，真的能够适应公平的环境吗？中国人民的廉价劳动力是外贸的优势，但却是内部消费不良的死穴。内部消费不足，外部倾销受阻，光靠那些高大上的口号就能解决问题？画饼充饥而已。

这次五中全会只有一个看点，就是和平解决台湾问题。习近平被那些马屁精和高级黑客们忽悠得不轻。他真的以为得到美国保护的台湾能够轻易拿下。今年以来习近平的对台威胁已经上升到了准战争状态。就连一些头脑还没发昏的鹰派将领也不得不说实话：这一张打不得，战则必败。届时不但是共产党的灭顶之灾，也是中国人民和台湾人民的灾难。停止习近平的无脑疯狂，恢复到现实清醒的和平政策，是这次五中全会的唯一看点。

虽然没能阻止共产党绑架人民滑向深渊，但在习近平最得意的，自以为可以留名千古的疯狂政策上，给了他一记响亮的日光，避免了不可挽回的灾难。可以说是中共内部软弱的反对派的胜利，小习同志的滑铁卢。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-10302020162118.html