Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1398-W1001

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号:A1398-W1001

 

Release Date: June 19, 2021

发布日:2021619

Topic: The New China-U.S.-Russia Triangle Relations -- Wei Jingsheng

标题:中美俄新三角关系 -- 魏京生

 

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

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The New China-U.S.-Russia Triangle Relations

-- Wei Jingsheng

 

 

The US President Biden and the Russian President Putin met in Geneva. President Putin laughed at their first small-scale meeting, as he got what he wanted from the beginning. What does he want? That is an admission of Russia's position as a big country, for the purpose of enhancing Putins political position in his country. This time, President Biden calculated very well and poked at Putin at the right spot, to the degree that Putin had to laugh as he just sat down, which is a little gaffe for him and not fitting his calm and serious training by the KGB.

 

The status of a great power seems to be a need not only for Putin himself, but a psychological need of the Russian people as well. It is just like the Chinese at the end of the Qing Dynasty, who were accustomed to be the little people of a big country, and were not used to others looking down at them. The experience of being looked down upon after the disintegration of the Soviet Union has become more and more unaccustomed to Russians. Putin has been tossing things up and down in the past few years, yet was welcomed by his people because he is giving some kind of comfort to the publics psychology. If Russia can be recognized by the big powers, of course it is more important than just comfort. It is an unexpected joy, so Putin can't help but to laugh.

 

If the Biden administration wants to concentrate on dealing with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), it naturally needs to relieve the pressure on the west. If Putin wants domestic support and shows himself by making trouble in the West, then he needs to relieve the pressure on the east. This is why Putin wooed China a few years ago. Now that Putin has received domestic support, there is no need to increase the support by making trouble for the West. Both sides got what they wanted, which can be said to be a win-win situation.

 

The media often ridicules Biden for saying wrong things, but he does have very good advisors and assistants. The understatement of his opening remarks set a tune for an eased US-Russian relationship, and that Russia will not make trouble for the West. Now the CCP is miserable. Through the screams and furious behaviors of the wolf warriors of Xi Jinping, we can estimate that they feel bad as well.

 

Why is it bad? The relationship between the CCP and Russia is not as strong as a rock as the two sides have claimed. Xi Jinping spent a lot of money on Russia though the purchasing of high-priced oil and also helped with the high-speed railways in Russia; however, the contentions in Central Asia and historical territorial issues are conflicts affecting the interests of China and Russia, as well as the psychology of the people. It is impossible for the Chinese people to regard Russia as a friend and for the Russians to lift their vigilance against China. It's just that politicians of both countries are pretending to be affectionate to each other in order to fight against the West.

 

Does Russia have to confront the United States? Not necessarily. First, Russia is no longer opposed to Western ideology, or even though it is very different, it is not in a state of opposition. Second, Russia is watching the rapid economic development in China and is also aware of the importance of cooperating with the West. If the contradiction can be alleviated to replace China's trading position, Putin will laugh again. Why not?

 

The only obstacle is the uncomfortable social mentality of the people, and there has long been no antagonistic contradiction in the struggle for world hegemony. In the past, Western countries made serious mistakes. A mental inertia alienated the well-intentioned Yeltsin government. A group of mentally handicapped scholars used shock therapy to harm the Russian economy, and then took the advantage to expand NATO eastward. This aroused the resentment of the Russian people and pushed the Russian people's social mentality to hostility.

 

This long-term accumulation of bad mentality gives the CCP an opportunity. Since the era of Jiang Zemin, the CCP has used various interests to lure Russia to join the anti-US alliance. But Russias upper-level leaders are not fools, and they know their own interests as well. They are just stumped by the political situation. Now the Biden administration is helping Putin get rid of domestic obstacles. As time goes by, normal relations between the United States and Russia will gradually develop. Russia does not need to unite with the CCP to fight against the West, so Xis wolf warriors are as upset as if their own parents had died.

 

Of course, with Putins shrewd character, there will be a lot of bargaining and twitching in the process of gradual easing of relations with the United States. These are all technical details, and the business nation of the United States does not lack these detailed calculations either. All that is left is time, as long as no more mistakes are made.

 

 

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

 

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-06172021171600.html

 

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2021/WeiJS210616onRussiaChinaUSArelations.mp3

 

(Written and recorded on June 16, 2021. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on June 17, 2021.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1398-W1001

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号:A1398-W1001

 

Release Date: June 19, 2021

发布日:2021619

Topic: The New China-U.S.-Russia Triangle Relations -- Wei Jingsheng

标题:中美俄新三角关系 -- 魏京生

 

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准(英文在前,中文在后)

如有中文乱码问题,请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2021/report2021-6/WeiJS210619onRussiaChinaUSArelationsA1398-W1001.htm

 

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中美俄新三角关系

-- 魏京生

 

 

美国总统拜登和俄罗斯总统普京在日内瓦见面了。首场小范围会谈,普京就哈哈大笑,可见他一开始就得到了他想要的东西。他想要的是什么东西呢?就是承认俄罗斯的大国地位,为普京巩固了在国内的政治地位。拜登这次算计得很好,直接戳到了普京的痒点,让普京忍不住坐下来就哈哈大笑。这多少都有点失态,不符合他克格勃的严肃冷静的训练。

 

大国地位不仅是普京本人的需要,而且是俄罗斯公众心理的需要。就像清朝末年的中国人一样,当惯了大国牛哄哄的子民,不习惯别人小看自己。苏联解体之后被人小看的经历,越来越让俄罗斯人不习惯。普京这几年不断折腾,反倒受老百姓的欢迎,是在给这种公众心理一种安慰。如果能得到大国承认,当然比仅仅是安慰重要得多,是意外之喜,所以就忍不住了。

 

拜登政府要集中精力对付中共,自然需要解除西边的压力。普京要得到国内的支持,要靠给西方捣乱来显示自己,就需要解除东边的压力。这是普京前些年拉拢中国的原因。现在普京得到了国内的支持,就没必要靠给西方找麻烦来提高国内支持率了。双方都得到了想要的东西,可以说是双赢。

 

虽然媒体讽刺拜登老说错话,但他有很好的参谋和助手。轻描淡写的一句开场白,就定下了美俄缓和关系,俄罗斯不给西方找麻烦的基调。这下子中国共产党就惨了,从习近平的战狼们气急败坏,跳着脚哭着喊着就可以估摸出他们也感到不妙。

 

为什么不妙呢?首先因为中共和俄罗斯之间的关系,并不像双方声称的那么坚如磐石。虽然习近平大撒币,又是购买高价石油,又是帮俄罗斯修建高速铁路。但是在中亚地区的争夺,以及历史上的领土问题,都是牵动中俄两国利益和民众心理的矛盾。让中国民众把俄罗斯当作朋友,和让俄罗斯民众解除对中国的警惕,都不太可能。只不过是两国为了对抗西方,政治家们在假惺惺地装作亲热而已。

 

俄罗斯一定要和美国对抗吗?不一定。首先就是俄罗斯已经没有和西方的意识形态对立了,或者说差别虽然很大,但不属于对立状态。其次就是俄罗斯看着中国经济快速发展,也意识到与西方合作的重要性。如果能缓和矛盾取代中国的贸易地位,普京又要笑起来了。何乐而不为呢?

 

唯一的障碍,就是民众不服气不舒服的社会心态,早就没有了争夺世界霸权的对抗性矛盾。过去的西方国家犯了严重的错误,一种思维惯性疏远了抱有善意的叶利钦政府。一帮弱智学者用休克疗法坑害了俄罗斯经济,又趁人之危大搞北约东扩。这激起了俄罗斯人民的反感,使得俄罗斯人民的社会心态被推向了敌对。

 

这种长期积累的不良心态,给了中共可趁之机。从江泽民时代开始,中共就以各种利益诱惑俄罗斯加入到反美联盟中。但俄罗斯上层领导们并不是傻瓜,也知道自己的利益所在,只是被政治形势绊住了脚。现在拜登政府帮助普京摆脱国内的障碍,随着时间的推移,美俄之间会渐渐发展出正常的关系。俄罗斯不需要和中共联合来对抗西方,所以小习的战狼们才如丧考妣。

 

当然,以普京精明算计的性格,在逐渐与美国缓和关系的过程中,还会有不少讨价还价和扭捏作态。这都属于技术细节,美国这个商业民族也不缺少这些细节算计。剩下的就是时间而已,只要不再犯错误。

 

 

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献,特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

 

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-06172021171600.html

 

相关录音:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2021/WeiJS210616onRussiaChinaUSArelations.mp3

 

(撰写并录音于2021616日。自由亚洲电台2021617日播出。)

 

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