Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1352-W965

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1352-W965

Release Date: January 13, 2021

发布日：2021年1月13日

Topic: Xi Jinping's Diplomatic Conspiracy -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的外交阴谋 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

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Xi Jinping's Diplomatic Conspiracy

-- Wei Jingsheng

Recently, people have been immersed in the news about the assault on the US Capitol, and few people have noticed another big news item. German Chancellor Angela Merkel took advantage of the recent chaos and went all out to reach an investment deal with China. Generally commentaries think of it as Xi Jinping's diplomatic victory, which has fulfilled his many years of trying to split the alliance between the United States and Europe to accomplish his strategy of conquering each separately.

From the predecessor of Xi Jinping’s predecessor, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hoped to undermine the unity of the league of democratic countries by starting with Europe. The applicable point to undermine this unity is that both Europe and the United States want greater economic benefits in China. In particular, among the western countries Germany is not only the only country with no trade deficits with China, but also has a large investment in China. Its big business enterprises are also the strongest in lobbying the government.

Because there is no trade deficit, the society’s demand for balanced trade is not strong, and public opinion against unfair trade is not strong either. This is the biggest difference between Germany and most Western countries. Chancellor Merkel has announced that she will no longer remain in power, that is, she will no longer be responsible for what follows. It just so happens that several of the top leaders of the European Union are Germans, and Merkel took over the EU presidency last year. She took this opportunity to reach the long-awaited trade deal with Xi Jinping at the end of last year. This deal is a big gift package she gave to Xi Jinping.

The first effect of this deal is the betrayal to its ally, the United States. The United States is fighting a trade war with China for fair trade between China and the rest of the world. When China was about to be unable to hold on and thus to make compromises, Germany's betrayal actually gave a blow to the United States. The response of the United States will determine the changes in the world structure and the stability of Xi Jinping's position.

If the Biden administration really wants the United States to return to its past appeasement policy, his team can say: We must unite our allies against China, so we must maintain a policy consistent with our allies. However, with the current political atmosphere in the United States, will the US Congress and the people let them do this? The US system is that the Congress makes policy and the executive branch executes them. The majority of the two political parties will not agree to retreat to the appeasement policy. And as most observers around the world have said, the Biden administration can only continue what the Trump administration has begun, and unite with allies besides Europe so its effect will even exceed what Trump administration did.

Faced with a market that is several times of the size of the European Union, how would Xi Jinping choose? He can only go back and compromise with the United States, with the strength of this compromise to be greater than that of Europe. Otherwise, the American people and Congress will not agree. Europe’s current position of betraying the United States will be remembered after China compromises with the United States. Moreover, the Chinese market cannot be opened to the whole world at once, and the one to be sacrificed must be Europe; maybe not Germany, but other small European countries which have always been the targets of bullying.

From the perspective of the United States, after China is fully open to the United States, will the United States care if Europe is betrayed by China? The American people and Congress consider their own interests, and if there is a memory of Europe betraying the United States, so likely their own interests will take precedence. Yet there are not any psychological barriers for China not to abide by the agreement with Europe. The CCP has a habit of not keeping promises. Only under pressure to harm itself, the CCP will reluctantly keep its promise.

Germany has a tradition. After its Prime Ministers and governments made big deals for foreign companies, these top officials could work in some foreign companies for high incomes. Chancellor Merkel may not do such a shameful thing. But tradition is tradition, and possibilities still exist.

From the perspective of Xi Jinping, despite the cooperation of Chancellor Merkel, the strategy of instigating discord basically has no hope of success. The dictatorial system in China has enabled it to be successful by controlling a few people at the top. Therefore, the diplomatic thinking of CCP’s Xi Jinping has formed along this thought. But democratic countries are different. If you can't control the American people, you can't control the Congress; if you can't control the Congress, it still will not work even if you controlled the White House.

Jiang Zemin and his successors succeeded in using deception and bribery to secure the American leadership. In the words of its think tank scholar: We have our CCP’s people in the upper-class and elites classes of the USA, who could influence American policies. But that was when the American people were deceived by these elites. Now after the four years of Trump’s administration, the United States and the world have woken up. Will Jiang Zemin's trick still work?

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-01132021131425.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2021/WeiJS210113onXiJPdiplomacy.mp3

(Written on January 12 and recorded on January 13, 2021. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on January 13, 2021.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1352-W965

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1352-W965

Release Date: January 13, 2021

发布日：2021年1月13日

Topic: Xi Jinping's Diplomatic Conspiracy -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的外交阴谋 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2021/report2021-1/WeiJS210113onXiJPdiplomacyA1352-W965.htm

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习近平的外交阴谋

-- 魏京生

最近人们都沉浸在冲击美国国会的新闻里，很少人注意到另一个大新闻。德国的默克尔总理趁着天下大乱，全力以赴地达成了和中国的投资协定。一般评论都认为这是习近平的外交胜利，完成了他多年来想分裂美国和欧洲的联盟，达成分而治之的策略。

从习近平的前任的前任开始，共产党就希望在欧洲下手，破坏民主国家联盟的团结。而破坏这个团结的着力点，就是欧洲和美国都想在中国获得更大的经济利益。尤其是德国，不单是西方和中国贸易中没有赤字的国家，而且在中国有很大的投资。其大企业对政府的游说能力也是最强。

没有贸易赤字，社会对平衡贸易的需求就不强，反对不公平贸易的舆论也就不强，这是德国和西方大多数国家最大的不同。默克尔总理已经宣布不再继续执政了，也就是不再对之后的事情负责了。正好欧盟有几位最高领导人是德国人，默克尔又是去年的欧盟主席。所以她就利用这个机会，在去年年底和习近平达成了这个期望已久的协议。给了习近平一个大礼包。

这个协议的第一个作用，就是出卖了盟友美国。美国正在为了全世界和中国之间有一个公平贸易，和中国打贸易战。在中国即将顶不住要妥协的时候，德国的背叛实际上给了美国背后一刀。下边美国的反应将会决定世界格局的变化，也将决定习近平地位的稳固与否。

如果拜登政府确实希望美国回到过去的绥靖政策，他的团队可以说：我们要联合盟友对付中国，所以我们要保持和盟友一致的政策。但是以美国现在的政治气氛，国会和人民会让他们这样做吗？美国的体制是国会制定政策，行政当局执行。两党议员的大多数不会同意退回到绥靖政策。而且正如全世界大多数观察家们所说，拜登政府只能继续川普没有做完的事情，并且联合欧洲以外的盟国，效果会超过川普。

面对体量数倍于欧盟的市场，习近平会怎么选择呢？他只能回过头来向美国妥协，而且妥协的力度会大于对欧洲。否则美国人民和国会不会同意。欧洲现在出卖美国的立场，会在中国向美国妥协后被人们记住。而且中国的市场没有能力一下子向全世界同时开放，被牺牲的那位肯定是欧洲。也许不会是德国，但欧洲其他小国历来就是被欺负的对象。

从美国的角度来看，中国对美国充分开放之后，美国会在乎欧洲被中国出卖吗？美国人民和国会从自己的利益考虑，而且有欧洲出卖美国的记忆，估计还是自己的利益优先。而中国不遵守和欧洲的协议，没有任何心理障碍。中国有不遵守诺言的习惯。只有在损害自己的压力下，中共才会不情愿地遵守诺言。

德国有个传统。总理和政府为外国公司办成了大笔交易，事后可以到外国公司任职拿高薪。默克尔总理可能不会干出这么可耻的事情。但传统就是传统，可能性还是存在的。

从习近平的角度来看，虽然有默克尔总理的配合，挑拨离间的策略基本上没有成功的希望。在中国这个独裁专制的体制下，搞定了最高层的几个人就成功了，所以共产党的习近平外交思维，就是沿着这个思路形成的。可是民主国家不同，你不能搞定美国人民，就不能搞定国会；不能搞定国会，你搞定了白宫也没多大作用。

江泽民和它的继承者们成功地用欺骗的方法，收买的方法搞定了美国领导层。用某位智库学者的话说就是：美国上层精英有我们的人，可以左右美国的政策。但那是在美国人民被这帮精英欺骗的情况下。现在经过川普执政的四年，美国和全世界已经醒过来了。江泽民那一套还管用吗？

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-01132021131425.html