Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1433-W1033

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1433-W1033

Release Date: December 2, 2021

发布日：2021年12月2日

Topic: Does the CCP Dare to Attack Taiwan? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中共敢打台湾吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Does the CCP Dare to Attack Taiwan?

-- Wei Jingsheng

Does the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) dare to attack Taiwan? It dares, yet not dares. It dares not when it is smart; it dares when confused. Why do I say this? That is because there are still some clear-headed people within the CCP, to them, attacking Taiwan is definitely not worth the gain. But their opinions do not necessarily prevail. If people like Xi Jinping have the upper hand, they may dare to attack Taiwan. The so-called confusion refers to only seeing the benefits and not seeing the dangers.

A few days ago, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, an agency established by the U.S. Congress, issued its annual report to the US Congress. A section of the report specifically assessed the threat of the CCP in the Taiwan Strait, including the possibility of using force against Taiwan. The report is very detailed, and its core meaning is what I said above: It dares not when it is smart, it dares when confused.

Regarding unification with Taiwan by force, the CCP has made preparations for many years. The report also mentioned that the preparation of weapons and equipment is close to being adequate. If there is no interference from the United States and Japan, it can be said that the conditions have been met. Therefore, it recommends to speed up the arming of Taiwan and strengthen Taiwan's defense capabilities, while at the same time clarifying the deterrence in regarding Taiwan Strait affairs. That is, to reduce the CCP’s motives for armed invasion against Taiwan.

The report also briefly mentions the weakness of the CCP’s military strength, which is insufficient to invade Taiwan. First is the poor organization and command system of the military, especially a lack of qualified officers. Second is that once a war starts, it will be met by the alliance of all countries, and even armed intervention and economic blockade. China's economy will encounter great difficulties and even collapse. Taking into account China's own interests, not the interests of the Communist leaders, armed invasion is the least cost-effective method.

The above statement is very simple, to the degree that everyone should be able to understand unless water has entered their brains. But some people are confused and want to let the water get into their brains -- they want to “liberate Taiwan” just as if they were caught by the devil. They even talked about their core interests, crying loud that they want to “liberate Taiwan”. Why? Some ordinary Chinese insist on “liberate Taiwan” for no reason but because they were brainwashed by the CCP's years of deceitful propaganda and have not yet been wiped clean. Or some of them were born mentally handicapped with too much water in their brains. Of course, there are also little pinks of the CCP supporters who pretend to be outraged in order to defraud the money from the CCP.

For many years, the CCP has promoted “the liberation of Taiwan”, and even claimed it as its core interest. In fact, it is to create an imaginary enemy to fool the common Chinese, so as to unite them together. Since the Mao Zedong era, the CCP never regarded Taiwan as a core interest. In order to please his godfather, Joseph Stalin, without a hesitation Mao turned the Chinese army that was preparing “to liberate Taiwan” around for attacks in North Korea. Thus it lost the opportunity to attack Taiwan. Is this called “core interest”?

Without Taiwan, what core interests will China have lost? There is nothing missing for China, but the CCP will lose the core interest of fooling all the Chinese. Who likes Taiwan independence the most? It doesn't matter to the common Chinese, but to the Chinese Communist Party, it would lose one of the most inflammatory imaginary enemies. Therefore, the biggest promoter of Taiwan independence is the Chinese Communist Party.

When Taiwan's democracy movement was launched overseas in the 1950s and 1960s, the source of its funding was from the CCP’s United Front Work Department. The early leaders of the Taiwan independence movement have told me that in order to find an exciting entry point for the democracy movement, they chose the slogan of Taiwan independence. This was because under the anti-Communist propaganda of the Kuomintang, the people of Taiwan were the least willing to accept the tyranny of the Communist regime. Therefore, the democratic movement has won the support of more people in its promotion of the Taiwan independence movement.

Now that Taiwan is democratic, why has the Taiwan independence movement gained even greater support? This support is to the credit of the CCP Secretary-General Xi Jinping. The swallowing of Hong Kong, the suppression of Xinjiang and Tibet, as well as all dissidents, the Wuhan virus, and the wolf warrior diplomacy that is messing up everything. What the people of Taiwan now see is not just the Kuomintang’s propaganda, but the reality in front of them. To enable Taiwan to be independent of the tyranny of the CCP is already the greatest and core interest of the Taiwanese people.

Who is the biggest promoter of Taiwan independence? Maybe no one can do it except Xi Jinping. In this matter, and only in this matter, Xi Jinping surpassed Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, and he can be called the greatest accelerator of the disintegration of the CCP and the chief architect of the collapse of the Chinese Communist regime.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-12022021131337.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2021/WeiJS211201onCCPattacksTaiwan.mp3

(Written on November 29 and recorded on December 1, 2021. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on December 2, 2021.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1433-W1033

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1433-W1033

Release Date: December 2, 2021

发布日：2021年12月2日

Topic: Does the CCP Dare to Attack Taiwan? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中共敢打台湾吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2021/report2021-12/WeiJS211202onCCPattacksTaiwanA1433-W1033.htm

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中共敢打台湾吗？

-- 魏京生

中共敢打台湾吗？也敢，也不敢。聪明的时候不敢，糊涂的时候敢。为什么这么说呢？因为中共里边还是有些头脑清醒的人，对他们来说打台湾是绝对得不偿失的做法。不过他们的意见不一定占上风。糊涂如习近平这样的人占了上风，也许就敢打台湾了。所谓糊涂指的就是只看见利益，看不见危险。

前几天美国国会建立的美中经济与安全审查委员会，出台了每年一度提交给国会的报告。报告中的一节，专门评估了中共在台海一带的威胁，包括对台湾动武的可能性。报告说的很详细，其核心意思就是我上边说的那样：聪明的时候不敢，糊涂的时候敢。

对于武力统一台湾，中共做了多年的准备。报告中也提到武器装备的准备已经接近充分了。如果没有美国和日本的干涉，可以说条件已经具备。所以建议加快武装台湾、加强台湾的防御能力，同时也要明确对台湾海峡事务的威慑。也就是减少中共武力犯台的动机。

报告也粗浅地提到中共军力不足以犯台的弱点。首先就是军队组织指挥系统很差，特别是缺少合格的军官。其次就是一旦开战，必将遭到各国联合的阻止，甚至武装干涉和经济封锁。中国的经济将会遭遇极大的困难，甚至崩溃。考虑到中国自身的利益，而不是共产党领袖的利益，武力犯台是最不合算的作法。

以上的说法很简单，不是脑子进水的都能听明白。但是有一些人的头脑就是糊涂，就是要进水；就是中了魔一样的要解放台湾。还说是什么核心利益，如丧考妣，哭着喊着要解放台湾。为什么呢？一些老百姓无缘无故非要解放台湾，那是因为中共多年的欺骗宣传，被洗了脑子还没擦干净。或者是天生的弱智，里边积水太多。当然也不排除小粉红们为了骗共产党的钱，假装义愤填膺。

中共多年来宣传解放台湾，还说是什么核心利益。其实就是制造一个假想敌来忽悠老百姓，借此凝聚人心。从毛泽东时代开始，就没有把台湾当作什么核心利益。为了讨好斯大林那个干爸爸，把准备解放台湾的军队，转为攻打朝鲜，老毛连磕倍儿也没打。从此失去了攻打台湾的机会，那也叫核心利益？

缺少了台湾，中国缺少了什么核心利益呢？对中国没什么缺少，对共产党倒是缺少了忽悠全国人民的核心利益。谁最喜欢台湾独立呢？对老百姓来说无所谓，对共产党来说，就少了一个最具有煽动性的假想敌。所以推动台独的最大推手就是共产党。

五六十年代台湾民主运动在海外启动，资金来源就是中共统战部。台独运动早期的大佬们都对我说过，当年为了给民主运动找到激动人心的切入点，选择了台湾独立的口号。因为台湾人民在国民党的反共宣传下，最不愿意接受共产党的暴政。所以民主运动就以台独运动的面貌，获得了更多人民的支持。

现在台湾已经民主了，为什么台独运动反而获得了更大的支持呢？这就是小习总书记的功劳了。吞并香港，打压新疆、西藏和所有异议人士，武汉病毒，再加上战狼外交一塌糊涂。台湾人民现在看见的不仅仅是国民党的宣传，而是活生生就在眼前的现实。让台湾能够独立于共产党的暴政之外，已经是台湾人民最大的利益，核心利益。

谁是台独的最大推手呢？可能除了习近平，没有谁能做得到了。在这件事情上，也只有在这一件事情上，小习超过了毛泽东、邓小平，堪称最伟大的解体中共加速师，共产党崩溃的总设计师。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-12022021131337.html