Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1445-W1045



Release Date: January 26, 2022



Topic: Does Xi Jinping Have a Chance to Take Advantage of the Ukraine Crisis? -- Wei Jingsheng 

标题:习近平有机会利用乌克兰危机吗? -- 魏京生


Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)



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Does Xi Jinping Have a Chance to Take Advantage of the Ukraine Crisis? 

-- Wei Jingsheng 



The Ukrainian crisis is in full swing.  The difference between the statements of President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken, and the firm attitude of President Putin, have caused a lot of speculation in international public opinion.  Among them, Asian media experts generally speculate whether Xi Jinping will use this opportunity to attack Taiwan, or use this opportunity to escalate the threat against Taiwan with force.  This is a guess based on the CCP's apparent hard-line attitude. 


Since the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, U.S. adversaries have generally viewed the U.S. negatively, believing that the U.S. has entered a period of weakness.  This is a misunderstanding.  The United States has always focused on policies of negotiation and avoiding war as much as possible.  So it is often misunderstood by those militants as the USA being weak and therefore refusing to settle disputes peacefully.  Once the United States is pressed, the consequences are generally more serious.  Putin is cunning and he understands this very well.  He is just setting up a sky-high price and waiting for the best opportunity to bargain. 


Would Putin be foolish enough to think he was a compatible adversary of the United States and the European Union, even if a war starts?  Based on years of observation, Putin is not as stupid as Xi Jinping.  He will not really be fooled by the angry patriotic youths in his own country and think that Russia is the most powerful country in the world because “the east rises while the west falls”.  It's just that the annexation of Crimea gave him courage, hoping to take advantage when the US's attention is attracted by China and Europe making trouble with the US, to scare people and using this opportunity to threaten the others and get more benefit from it.  He does not want to help China to attract the attention of the United States and make wedding clothes for others. 


As can be seen from the above analysis, this Ukraine crisis will not be protracted.  Besides, the logistical expenses for the deployment of troops on the Ukrainian border are also a huge burden.  After getting some specific benefits, the “crisis” will die down and Putin will turn back to domestic affairs.  That's what keeps Putin in power.  Don’t even think about a limited war for eastern Ukraine.  Ukraine cannot accept it, nor will the United States and Europe.  After all, the historical legitimacy of Crimea is insufficient, and everyone had to endure it.  But now it is impossible to accept Putin's occupation of Ukraine. 


After this talk of Putin, we should come back and talk about the Secretary-General Xi of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).  Comrade Xi Jinping's internal and external difficulties are becoming more and more obvious.  Under the circumstances of excessive internal pressure, it is not just a question of him becoming the emperor during the 20th National Congress of the CCP, but a question of whether he can be overthrown.  There were very bullish people such as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping who had to launch wars to resolve internal conflicts when they were in similar situations.  This has been the routine practice of monarchs of last resort since ancient times.  Xi Jinping is not stupid enough to not understand this trick.  Now the speculation that he will use the Ukraine crisis to use force against Taiwan may not be groundless. 


Can he do this?  The opportunity is not good, with no preparation in advance.  No one had expected Putin to make trouble at this time, and Putin is not so close to Xi to discuss this with him in advance.  It can also be viewed from this incident that the so-called Sino-Russian alliance was actually played by Putin to fool Xi Jinping.  Xi acted to embolden Putin for free.  He also became a backstage hand for Putin for free, and endorsed Putin for free.  Xi was solidly fooled by a swindler. 


If Xi is so stupid that he really wants to be benefitted by it -- i.e. take the opportunity of the Ukraine crisis to use force against Taiwan, even just limited use of force to occupy small places such as Penghu and Dongsha -- it will cause international panic and resolute counterattacks.  The CCP's military is very strong, and Taiwan will definitely not be able to resist it.  However, the combined strength of the United States, Japan and Taiwan is far stronger than that of the CCP.  The US and Japan did not dare to be tough in public, because they are limited by the public opinion of the people, and they have to show their willingness for peace.  But once the public opinion saw the wolf's ambition and stopped insisting on peace, the waiting military would see its good opportunity to eliminate this old enemy in one strike. 


Although Xi Jinping has just promoted a lot of generals, even if all of them are incompetent flatterers, there should still be a few sensible people not promoted by him.  Even if they were powerless to stop Xi's reckless risk-taking, what would be the result when the war had begun?  That would be the United States and Japan united to defeat the Communist army, eliminate its navy, and then block traffic on the ocean.  This will be like the Jinmen Battle years ago when the whole army was wiped out.  The difference from the Jinmen Battle would be the economic collapse in China.  That would be a great opportunity for Putin to extort money, sell things at a higher price and ask for some territory by the way, etc.  Just as in the late Qing Dynasty. 


Russia has been accustomed to doing this for two hundred years.  Do you think Putin does not understand history and is as stupid as Xi? 



(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation.  Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)


Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:



To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:



(Written on January 21, 2022; recorded on January 23, 2022.  Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on January 24, 2022.)



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Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1445-W1045



Release Date: January 26, 2022



Topic: Does Xi Jinping Have a Chance to Take Advantage of the Ukraine Crisis? -- Wei Jingsheng 

标题:习近平有机会利用乌克兰危机吗? -- 魏京生


Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)









-- 魏京生





































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