Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1468-W1065

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1468-W1065

Release Date: April 27, 2022

发布日：2022年4月27日

Topic: Xi Jinping's Situation Is Not Very Good -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的形势不太妙 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

Note: Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese parts of this release. If this mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request for special delivery to us or visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2022/report2022-4/WeiJS220427onXiJPtroubleA1468-W1065.htm which contains identical information.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Xi Jinping's Situation Is Not Very Good

-- Wei Jingsheng

Xi Jinping's recent situation is not very good. Just as he thought that he had succeeded to eliminate dissidents within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) after working hard for a long time, and to crack down on public opinion, suddenly the virus he deployed personally invaded, causing the whole China to enter a new wave of epidemics one after another. In order to show his achievements in fighting the epidemic, also because he listened to the flattery of a group of flattering scientists, he actually believed that he could achieve zero infection of the virus. Not only did the strategy of locking down cities fail to show results, but it actually increased infections, causing anger and resentment among the Chinese people. This policy has resulted a great negative impact on Chinese economy, and many ordinary Chinese will again, or already started their hard time to survive.

Xi messed up domestic affairs himself, as if he didn't want to be re-elected for a third term. But everyone knows that he has been preparing for his third term for several years with his established goal to be the leader forever, that is, to be the emperor that everyone criticizes. We didn't see any signs that he changed his mind, nor his intention to give up his third term, so why did he mess things up? There is only one possibility; that is his stupidity has reached an even higher level.

How to solve this predicament? I guess even he has also realized his own stupidity now, yet his flatters have no good ideas. Xi acts his own dictator’s way, and it is difficult for him to listen to the opinions of others. If one doesn't say anything, one cannot be wrong; but one might be wrong if one does say something. This is the life philosophy of the courtiers under autocratic politics. When the courtiers become prosperous, the country will decline step by step. Anyway, at the end, it will be the emperor who lost his head, not the courtier, so who cares?

Under such a situation, Mr. Xi may consider a crooked trick that has always worked, which is to start a war. Since Xi came to power, politicians from all over the world have considered this possibility. People often ask me who will be his target. After lining up the neighboring countries, it is found that Taiwan is the most suitable target. I joked that actually North Korea is the best target, but everyone said no, because there is no legitimate reason and the close relationship between North and South Korea is also involved, thus the United States will be embarrassed. Taiwan is still the most suitable target, with justified reasons and its weak military, thus it is the best target of the Chinese Communist regime.

Whether the CCP could take over Taiwan or not, it doesn't matter. The important thing is that the leaders will not be changed during the war. This is the most important. It doesn't matter whether the country wins or loses, the important thing is when the war started, the plans of a group of opposition who want to replace the leader at the 20th National Congress of the CCP will be in vain. There will be no need to discuss President Xi's re-election. Just like President Roosevelt during World War II, when the convention got broken and he got re-elected without there being an election. Wouldn't that be nice?

But in this way, the people in mainland China and Taiwan will suffer. Taiwan would be bombed into pieces like Ukraine now. Who knows how many years will take to recover. Because the mainland China will be sanctioned by developed countries, life will become more and more difficult. Emperor Xi's seat will be secured, and the CCP will have no worries, but the repression and exploitation of the Chinese people will become even more ruthless. Besides Xi Jinping and his henchmen, who can benefit? I am afraid that, except for Russia, the economy of most countries will be negatively affected, especially that of Japan and South Korea.

How can this worst-case scenario be avoided? I'm afraid that one can't rely on the Treaty of San Francisco for protection. That treaty is valid for signatory countries and not binding on non-signatory countries. Even that treaty avoided the issue of Taiwan's status, or it was unnecessary to raise it, because justifiably Taiwan in 1952 was the territory of the Republic of China.

The bad news for Xi Jinping is that because of Ukraine's stubborn resistance, Western countries have increased their aid to Ukraine, including military aid. Although Russia has adjusted its strategy and tactics, the possibility of winning is gradually declining. If Taiwan can get the same level of assistance, or even get involved, the possibility for the fall of the Communist regime in China due to Xi Jinping’s war will increase greatly.

However, in that case, the people of Taiwan and mainland China will pay a great price. But in the long run, the collapse of the Communist regime in China will be a good thing for the people of Taiwan and Mainland China. Long-term pain is worse than short-term pain. You have to pay to enjoy an ice cream. If instead you want to get benefit without a payment – such a good deal only exists in the pockets of liars.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-04272022093545.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2022/WeiJS220426onXiJPtrouble.mp3

(Written and recorded on April 26, 2022. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on April 27, 2022.)

-----------------------------------------------------------------

This is a message from WeiJingSheng.org

The Wei Jingsheng Foundation and the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition are dedicated to the promotion of human rights and democratization in China. We appreciate your assistance and help in any means. We pledge solidarity to all who struggle for human rights and democratic governance on this planet.

You are welcome to use or distribute this release. However, please credit with this foundation and its website at: www.weijingsheng.org

Although we are unable to afford to pay royalty fees at this time, we are seeking your contribution as well. You may send your articles, comments and opinions to: HCP@weijingsheng.org. Please remember, only in text files, not in attachments.

For website issues and suggestions, you may contact our professional staff and web master at: webmaster@Weijingsheng.org

To find out more about us, please also visit our websites at:

www.WeiJingSheng.org and www.ChinaLaborUnion.org

for news and information for Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition and human rights and democracy movement as whole, especially our Chinese Labor Union Base.

You may contact Ciping Huang at: HCP@Weijingsheng.org or

Wei Jingsheng Foundation office at: 1-202-270-6980

Wei Jingsheng Foundation's postal address is:

Wei Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA

You are receiving this message because you had previous shown your interest in learning more about Mr. Wei Jingsheng and the Chinese Democratic Movement. To be removed from the list, simply reply this message and use "unsubscribe" as the Subject. Please allow us a few days to process your request.

*****************************************************************

中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1468-W1065

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1468-W1065

Release Date: April 27, 2022

发布日：2022年4月27日

Topic: Xi Jinping's Situation Is Not Very Good -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的形势不太妙 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2022/report2022-4/WeiJS220427onXiJPtroubleA1468-W1065.htm

-----------------------------------------------------------------

习近平的形势不太妙

-- 魏京生

习近平最近的形势不太妙。正在他努力了很久，排除党内异己，打击社会舆论自以为成功之际，突然，他亲自部署的病毒大举入侵，导致全国陆续进入新的一波疫情。为了显示他的抗疫成就，也是听信了一帮马屁科学家的逢迎阿谀，居然相信可以清什么零。封城策略不但没显现出效果，反而增加了感染，搞得天怒人怨，民怨鼎沸。这给经济造成极大的负面影响，很多老百姓又要，或者已经过苦日子了。

他自己把国内的事情搞砸了，看上去就像是他自己不想连任第三届了。但大家都知道他准备了好几年，既定目标就是要当永远的一把手，就是要当大家批评的皇帝。没看见他改变主意的蛛丝马迹，没看见他准备放弃第三任的表示，那他把事情搞砸是为什么呢？只有一种可能，就是他的愚蠢又上了一个层次。

如何解除这个困境呢？估计他现在也看出来自己的愚蠢了，他的马屁精们也没什么好主意。他自己独断专行，别人的意见他很难听得进去。不说不错，说了就可能错。这是专制政治下臣子们的人生哲学，百试不爽。臣子们混得风生水起，国家就一步步地衰落。反正最后掉脑袋的是皇帝不是臣子，谁在乎呢？

小习大人在这种形势下，可能会考虑一个百试不爽的歪招，就是发动战争。从小习上台后，各国政治家都考虑过这种可能性。经常有人问我谁会是他的目标，把周边国家都排了一下队，发现台湾是最适合的目标。我开玩笑说其实北朝鲜是最好的目标，但大家都说NO、NO、NO，不好。因为没有正当理由，还牵涉到朝鲜南北的亲密关系，美国会比较尴尬。还是台湾最好，名正言顺，军力衰弱，是共产党的最佳目标。

不管打不打得下来，这个不重要。重要的是战争期间可以不必换领导人，这个最重要。国家是输是赢也不重要，重要的是战争一起，想在二十大换人的一帮反对派的计划，就泡汤了。习总的连任就没必要讨论了。可以像二战时期的罗斯福总统一样，打破惯例不用选就连任。岂不快哉？

可这样一来，就苦了大陆和台湾的老百姓了。台湾被炸得稀里哗啦，像现在的乌克兰一样，不知道多少年才能恢复元气。大陆因为受到发达国家的制裁，日子会越过越艰难。习皇帝的位子坐稳了，共产党的天下无忧了，对人民的镇压和剥削却更狠了。除了习近平和他的党羽们，谁能获利呢？恐怕除了俄罗斯，大多数国家的经济都会受到负面的影响，尤其是日本和韩国。

如何才能避免最坏的情况出现呢？恐怕不能靠什么旧金山条约来保驾。那个条约对签约国有效，对非签约国没有约束力。即使那个条约，也回避了台湾地位的问题，或者说没有必要提出。因为1952年的台湾是名正言顺的中华民国领土。

对习近平不利的消息是；西方各国因为乌克兰的顽强抵抗，加大了对乌援助的力度，包括军事援助。俄罗斯虽然调整了战略战术，取胜的可能也在逐渐下降。如果台湾也能得到同样力度的援助，甚至介入，习近平因为战争导致共产党跨台的可能性，就会大幅度上升。

虽然那样一来，台湾和大陆人民会付出很大的代价。但从长远来看，共产党垮台对台湾和大陆人民都是好事，长痛不如短痛嘛。吃个冰淇凌还要付钱呢，想不付代价就得到的那种好处，只有骗子的口袋里才有。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-04272022093545.html