Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1469-W1066

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1469-W1066

Release Date: May 3, 2022

发布日：2022年5月3日

Topic: Zero-Covid Policy Is the Last Straw that Overwhelms the Chinese Economy -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：清零政策是压倒经济的最后那根稻草 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Zero-Covid Policy Is the Last Straw that Overwhelms the Chinese Economy

-- Wei Jingsheng

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), headed by Mao Zedong, introduced the planned industrial economy on the base of serfdom from the Soviet Union. This model led to economic and social setbacks in China, which soon ended in failure. The CCP during the Deng Xiaoping's era realized the failure of serfdom and the planned economy, as well as that the model of a market economy must be restored. But they were unwilling to give up the autocracy of communism and the benefits it brought to their bureaucratic class. Therefore, they chose the traditional Chinese mode of managing the market economy with autocratic politics that had been there for more than 2,000 years. They also gave it a new name, calling it the primary stage of a socialist economy.

To be fair, this return to the traditional Chinese model is an improvement over serfdom. It guaranteed the normal development of the economy and thus is praised by the Chinese people. But this traditional model has greatly suppressed the driving force of social and economic progress. This is the main reason why China has gradually lagged behind the West in the past five hundred years. As early as more than 100 years ago, it has been recognized and opposed by people of insight. Learning from the Western model of managing the market economy with democratic politics is considered by the Chinese people to be the path of progress for China.

Therefore, Deng Xiaoping's initial stage model cannot be maintained for long. If it hadn't be cheating to get the blood transfusion of trade from the United States and the West, it would have died long ago. With the help from the USA, although the catch-up effect of technology and the economy in China looks good, gradually, the Chinese economy exposed the true nature of the lack of internal power. Internal conflicts are also gradually intensifying, while economic chaos and social corruption are accelerating in China. The various ills of the ancient Chinese model are doubly present in current reality.

What should be done? Questioning how to go down the road is a problem that has already appeared in the era of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao. Under the premise of no more blood transfusion from the United States, and the situation of economic stagnation caused by inflation, the urgency of reforming the traditional model is once again forcing China to choose a new path. Is it to return to the utopian model of communism and increase the oppression of the society to maintain the stability of the regime? Or to progress to the modern model of democratic political management of a market economy? China has indeed entered an era of great changes.

Xi Jinping and the Communist Party he leads have chosen the Mao Zedong model of maintaining autocratic rule at the expense of social progress. The Soviet autocratic political model required the cooperation of serfdom with a monopoly economy. The two are interdependent like two grasshoppers on one rope. Mao Zedong understood its trick very well, and he was unwilling to give up the economic monopoly even when he failed. He knew that under the pressure of a modern democratic market economy, giving up economic monopoly means giving up political autocracy.

In his practice of safeguarding the one-party autocracy, Xi Jinping also had to admit the reasoning of Mao Zedong. So, he gradually moved towards the path of economic despotism. He wants an advance for China while the people take a setback, along with Xi’s violent lockdown of the cities, etc., have strengthened the authority of autocratic politics, but also destroyed the driving force of economic development. In particular, the recent lockdown measures of Shanghai and some other cities has no positive effect on the fight against the Covid pandemic, but only helps to strengthen the authority of the dictatorship. From this point, it can be said that they have won.

The price of this victory is to cut off the connection between the various sub-economies that is needed by the modern economy, or to increase the resistance to cooperation between enterprises. The suppression of information and individual freedoms has already greatly reduced the intrinsic motivation for economic development. The effect of the lockdown measures is to double the negative impact. This not only affects Shanghai and various central cities in China, but also affects the economy of the entire China, and even affects the countries in the world that relate to the Chinese economy.

The rapid development of the globalized economy in recent decades has led to the reactionary measures taken by China, the second largest economy, with inevitable global consequences. This global consequence, in turn, will multiply the effect of Xi Jinping's economic reactionary measures. The stacking effects of this can cause the most vulnerable economies to collapse. China is one of these most vulnerable. Some scholars predict that the Chinese economy may return to the state of the Great Leap Forward in the 1950s, which is definitely not groundless.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-05022022100923.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2022/WeiJS220501onChineseEconomy.mp3

(Written on April 29 and recorded May 1, 2022. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on May 2, 2022.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1469-W1066

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1469-W1066

Release Date: May 3, 2022

发布日：2022年5月3日

Topic: Zero-Covid Policy Is the Last Straw that Overwhelms the Chinese Economy -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：清零政策是压倒经济的最后那根稻草 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2022/report2022-5/WeiJS220503onChineseEconomyA1469-W1066.htm

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清零政策是压倒经济的最后那根稻草

-- 魏京生

毛泽东为首的共产党，从苏联引进了农奴制加工业计划经济。这个模式导致中国经济和社会的倒退，不久就以失败告终。邓小平时代的共产党，意识到农奴制和计划经济的失败，认识到必须恢复市场经济的模式。但他们不愿意放弃共产主义的专制政治，以及这个专制给他们这个官僚阶级带来的利益。于是就选择了中国两千多年来传统的，以专制政治管理市场经济的模式。并给了个新的名称，叫做初级阶段的社会主义经济。

公平地说，这退回到传统模式，相对于农奴制是一个进步。它保证了经济正常发展，受到了人们的赞扬。但这种传统的模式，极大地压抑了社会和经济进步的动力。是中国近五百年来逐渐落后于西方的主要原因。早在一百多年前，就已经被有识之士们所认证，并加以反对。学习西方用民主政治管理市场经济的模式，被大家认为是中国进步的道路。

所以邓小平的初级阶段模式维持不了太久。如果不是骗取了美国和西方的输血性贸易，恐怕早就寿终正寝了。虽然在美国的帮助下，科技和经济的追赶效应看上去很好，但缺乏内部动力的经济，逐渐暴露了缺乏内部动力的本相。内部矛盾也渐次加剧，经济混乱和社会腐败正加速发展。中国古代模式的各种弊病，加倍地出现在现实中。

怎么办？下边的路该怎么走，是胡锦涛、温家宝时代就已经出现的问题。在美国不再输血的前提下，在通货膨胀导致经济停滞的形势下，改革传统模式的紧迫性，再次迫使中国选择新的道路。是退回到共产主义的乌托邦模式，加大对社会的压迫维持政权稳定呢？还是进步到以民主政治管理市场经济的现代模式呢？中国确实进入到一个大变局的时代。

习近平和他领导的共产党，选择了维护专制统治、牺牲社会进步的毛泽东模式。苏联专制政治的模式，需要农奴制垄断经济的配合。二者相互依存，是一根绳上的蚂蚱。毛泽东很懂得其中的奥妙，再失败也不愿放弃经济上的垄断。他知道在现代民主市场经济的压力下，放弃了经济上的垄断，就是放弃了政治上的专制。

习近平在他的维护一党专制的实践中，也不得不承认毛泽东的道理。所以他逐渐地走向了经济专制的道路。他的国进民退，他的暴力封城，等等，加强了专制政治的权威，同时也破坏了经济发展的动力。特别是最近对上海和其它一些城市的封锁措施，对抗击病毒没有正面的效果，仅仅有利于加强专政的权威。在这个意义上看，可以说他们获得了胜利。

这个胜利的代价，就是切断了现代经济所需要的，各个经济体之间的联系，或者说增加了企业间合作的阻力。对信息和个人自由的压制，已经大大减少了经济发展的内在动力。封城措施的效果，是对负面影响的加倍。这不但影响了上海和各中心城市，而且扩散影响到整个国家的经济，以至于影响到与中国经济有联系的世界各国。

最近几十年来快速发展的全球化经济，导致中国这个第二大经济体的反动措施，必然带来全球性的后果。这个全球性的后果反过来，也会使得习近平的经济反动措施效果倍增。这种相互叠加的后果，会使得其中最脆弱的经济体崩溃。中国就是这个最脆弱的之一。有学者预估中国的经济，有可能会回到五十年代大跃进的状况，绝对不是空穴来风。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-05022022100923.html