Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1619-W1178

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1619-W1178

Release Date: November 29, 2023

发布日：2023年11月29日

Topic: Can Xi Jinping's San Francisco Trip Solve His Economic Predicament in China? – Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的旧金山之行能解决经济困境吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Can Xi Jinping's San Francisco Trip Solve His Economic Predicament in China?

-- Wei Jingsheng

It has been several days since Xi Jinping returned to Beijing, and the comments from various countries are varied and have gradually calmed down. But there is only one major thing left out, which is also the main purpose that forced Xi Jinping to put down his arrogance and change his face to kneel down and beg Biden: to save the economy in China. A lot of false and empty talks are not important. Easing Sino-US relations is important to the United States, while the most important thing to Xi Jinping is the economy in China. But there was not much activity in this regard.

Xi Jinping did not attend the economic ministers’ meeting agreed to in advance, and there was no joint communiqué. He returned to Beijing in despair. It seems that the economy in China is in trouble, while the United States announced a lot of achievements, such as fentanyl and solar energy, etc. It seems that the most important thing is military dialogue between the two countries, which was hyped up by the White House. In fact, it is the same as nothing. In the past, there was a tradition of not answering the phone when there was dialogue. Who would inform you in advance of military operations to let you get prepared for them? Would not that be stupid? At most, it's just a drill or something to threaten you.

None of this is a problem for the current predicament for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Its first headache is the rapid economic decline in China. If it is not resolved, Xi Jinping himself will not be able to protect himself, and the CCP itself will not be protected either if it is not be solved soon. Although the interests and purposes of each faction and group within the CCP are different, saving the economy is definitely the common goal of each, and it is the most important goal, the goal that determines life and death.

Have the economic problems been solved in China? That's not what Americans have the final say on. After decades of hard work since Jiang Zemin's era, and after ten years of Xi Jinping's regression, everyone has come to understand: without reform of the political and legal system, there will be no market economy that is free, which means there is no solution to the economic predicament in China. With a free market economy guaranteed by the legal system, the system of one-party dictatorship would be eliminated. This is an unsolvable paradox.

Aren’t the big companies in the United States rushing to spend money to have a party with Xi Jinping? In the proverb of Northern China, it is called hitting the tree with a pole regardless if there are dates or not on the tree. Maybe if a fool in Beijing gets dizzy, a piece of gold will slip out of his fingers. Isn’t some credit card company allowed to enter the Chinese market now? Businessmen will not give up any unexpected opportunities, but they will not believe what experience has proven either. How long that credit card can exist in China is still a question.

In hindsight, it seems that the Americans were extremely enthusiastic in luring Xi Jinping to San Francisco for a meeting, which was really a trick on Xi Jinping. The Americans' expectations were not high, yet they seemed to have reached them. They were even in the mood to talk to Xi about his favorite soccer and cars. This time, Xi showed his true nature, foolishly chatting nonsense with others, and even did not forget to invite the American farmers who entertained him years ago to put on an emotional show.

In short, the entire trip to San Francisco was a disaster from beginning to end, and Mr. Xi returned to Beijing in a depressed mood. How to explain to the opposition? How valuable is your show of Iowa farmers? Can that solve any economic problems in China? It’s like picking up sesame seeds while losing the watermelon.

The most stupid thing for Xi is to promise the President of the United States that he will not attack Taiwan before some time period. This promise immediately made Taiwan's presidential candidate extremely happy, so he announced that the president of the mainland China had promised the president of the United States that there would be no war even if the Democratic Progressive Party is elected. This promise does not seem to be in line with the goal of the CCP’s intervention in Taiwan’s election, and will make its Blue and White camps that cooperate with the CCP angry. It's a mess, really a mess.

But is this promise valid? Not to mention cunning politicians, even naive scholars don’t believe it. Immediately, some sneaky scholars revealed that Xi Jinping himself had publicly assured the President of the United States that no military bases would be built on the islands and reefs in the South China Sea, but then he turned around and started construction. Now it seems that all are being built there are military bases. It is just that China doesn't have the guts to tow away the Philippines' broken warship, which delayed its construction time.

But friends in Taiwan should indeed be happy. Xi Jinping's unusual maneuvers in San Francisco, coupled with his recent drastic moves within the CCP and the military, have plunged him into deeper internal and external difficulties, and there is a high probability that he will not be able to launch a war. Gratitude should be given to the Americans who gave Xi a fatal blow in San Francisco, in the way of “taking his life while he was sick”. With the rapid decline of authority, the day Xi Jinping be locked in Qincheng Prison (for high leveled political prisoners in China) may not be far away.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-11282023135724.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2023/WeiJS231122onXiJPtrip.mp3

Related screenshot of Wei Jingsheng’s commentary on RFA website:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2023/newsletters2023-4/WeiJSonXiJPtrip231129RFApage.jpg

(Written on November 21 and recorded on November 22, 2023. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on November 29, 2023.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1619-W1178

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1619-W1178

Release Date: November 29, 2023

发布日：2023年11月29日

Topic: Can Xi Jinping's San Francisco Trip Solve His Economic Predicament in China? – Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的旧金山之行能解决经济困境吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2023/report2023-11/WeiJS231129onXiJPtripA1619-W1178.htm

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习近平的旧金山之行能解决经济困境吗？

-- 魏京生

习近平回北京好几天了，各国的评论乱七八糟的，也渐渐平静了。但唯独漏掉了一件大事，也是迫使习近平放下架子变脸跪求拜登的主要目的：救经济。假大空话一大堆都不重要，缓和中美关系对美国很重要，对习近平就是经济最重要。可是没看见这方面的动静。

事先说好的经济首长会议他也没出席，联合公报也没有。他灰溜溜地就回北京了，看来经济什么的都没戏。美国方面倒是宣布了一大堆成果，什么芬太尼、太阳能，看上去最重要的是军方对话。被白宫炒作得不亦乐乎。其实和没有一样，过去有对话的时候就有不接电话的传统，谁有军事行动会事先通知你防备呢？不傻吗？最多就是没事演习等等威胁你一下而已。

这些对中共目前的困境来说都不是事儿。第一头疼的就是经济快速下滑，不解决的话，小习自身都难保了，晚解决中共自身也难保了。虽然各派系、各集团的利益目的等等各不相同，但救经济肯定是大家的共同目标，而且是最重要的目标，决定生死存亡的目标。

经济问题有解决吗？那不是美国人说了算的。经过江泽民时代以来的几十年磨合，经过了习近平十年来的倒退，大家都看明白了：政治和法治体系不改革，就不可能有自由的市场经济，也就是经济困境无解。有了法制保障下的自由市场经济，一党专政的体制就消解了。这是一个无解的悖论。

美国的大企业不是上赶着花钱和小习欢宴了一场吗？用北方俗语来说，那叫有枣没枣打一杆子。也许北京的傻瓜一犯晕，手指缝里就漏下一块金娃娃呢。某个信用卡公司不就获准进入中国市场了吗？商人不会放弃任何意外的机会，但也不会相信经验证明的东西。那个信用卡能在中国存在多久还是个问题呢。

事后看起来，美国人极其热情地把习近平忽悠到旧金山开会，实在是把小习摆了一道。美国人的期待不高，似乎都达到了，甚至还有心情和小习谈论他喜欢的足球和汽车。小习倒是表现出了他的本性，傻乎乎地陪着人家说废话，还不忘把他潜底时招待过他的美国农民请来，做了一场感情秀。

总之，整场旧金山之行从头到尾的触霉头，咱们习总心情郁闷灰溜溜地回到了北京。怎么向反对派们交代？你那场艾奥瓦州的农民秀有多大的价值？能解决中国的什么经济问题吗？真是捡了芝麻丢了西瓜。

最愚蠢的是向美国总统保证，哪年哪年之前不会打台湾。立刻就把台湾的总统候选人高兴得不要不要的，宣布大陆总统向美国总统保证，选了民进党也不会发生战争。这好像不符合中共干预台湾选举要达到的目标，会气死与中共合作的蓝白阵营。乱了，真的乱套了。

但是这个保证有效吗？不要说狡猾的政客们，就是天真的学者们也不相信呀。马上就有刁钻的学者揭发说，习近平本人曾经公开向美国总统保证，南海岛礁上不会建设军事基地，但是转脸就开工，现在那儿建设的好像都是军事基地。只是没胆量把人家菲律宾的破军舰拖走，耽误了工期而已。

不过台湾的朋友们确实应该高兴。习近平在旧金山的骚操作，加上他最近在党内军内的一番大刀阔斧，确实让他陷入了更深的内外交困，大概率没有能力发动一场战争。这还得感谢美国人在旧金山给了小习致命的一刀，趁他病，要他的命。随着权威的迅速下降，习近平进秦城的日子恐怕不远了。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来相关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

评论的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-11282023135724.html