Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1624-W1183

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1624-W1183

Release Date: December 12, 2023

发布日：2023年12月12日

Topic: With Foreign Aid Out of the Question and Domestic Demand Deflating, Where Does the Road Lead in China? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：外援没戏，内需通缩，路在何方？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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With Foreign Aid Out of the Question and Domestic Demand Deflating, Where Does the Road Lead in China?

-- Wei Jingsheng

Xi Jinping held two important meetings a couple days ago, both of which ended in failure. The EU-China summit was originally intended to resolve the economic and political differences between the two sides, but instead of making compromises, it only widened the differences. Xi Jinping's attempt to save China's economy by easing relations with Western developed countries has once again failed miserably.

Politically, Xi Jinping secretly supports Russia's war and his faked neutrality policy is difficult for Europeans to accept. This makes no sense politically. The increased trade deficit of more than 400 billion has made the European economy even worse during the Russia-Ukraine war. It has also made it difficult for the other side to accept it and so it is taking countermeasures.

At the same time, China's economy has fallen into recession. China cannot accept the Europeans' approach of reducing the trade deficit. The two sides refused to give in to each other, thus the talks would collapse is within the expectation. Xi cannot negotiate with the United States, nor with Europe. Thus, the illusion of once again relying on the blood infusion from foreign trade to save the economy in China has finally been shattered. Therefore, Xi Jinping can only talk nonsense about internal circulation, to comfort himself just like whistling while walking at night.

Why do I say this internal circulation is nonsense? Most Chinese people are getting poorer and poorer, thus isn’t it nonsense that Xi Jinping wants to increase internal circulation? All enterprises are subject to increased interference and restrictions from the bureaucracy. Entrepreneurs are running out of China with their money; capital is fleeing. How can the domestic demand and internal circulation increase when there is no money? This is like a tree without roots, water without a source, and a clever woman who cannot make a meal without rice. What else are Xi Jinping’s words but nonsense?

Professor Wu Jinglian, who recently won a big economics award, is a sensible person within the Chinese Communist system. He also had to bravely speak out, pointing out that the root cause of the economic downturn lies in politics. Although the words are very tactful and lengthy, the conclusion is clear. Without removing political obstacles and without the guarantee of democracy and the rule of law, the economy will not be able to operate normally and the current economic predicament in China will not be solved.

After failing to deceive the rich countries in Europe and the United States, Xi Jinping convened a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to discuss the economy. There should be an approach to solve the dilemma. However, there is no charter; just sycophant nonsense and we don’t have to repeat it. If the problems on the surface are not solved, then isn't it nonsense to talk about how to develop and make progress? No wonder, even if you are a close confidant of Xi Jinping, you are always in a state of panic – the more you say, the more wrongs you commit so it is better to say nothing. The safest thing is of course to say the sycophant nonsense.

If you run a country with nonsense and run it by doing nothing, can this country be saved? Although all industries are in decline in China, there is one still truly outstanding. At this time when it is said that even civil servants were unable to get their salaries paid, the number of governance workers is still increasing. That is to say, the number of people who specialize in lying, bragging and swearing on the Internet and such will be increased. This is the only measure the Chinese government takes to save the Chinese economy, by the way of cheating.

The problem is that most people do not understand economics or politics, but they do understand their own wallets. All the big and small capital around them is fleeing. Aren’t the poor people anxious? If the small and middle class only tightens their consumption, the 600 million poor Chinese will fall below the survival line. How do they live? Can you really continue to deceive by painting a big pie? These are looming crises that are difficult for those who consume large amounts of luxury goods to comprehend.

The upcoming economic work conference is totally out of context. As everyone knows, if we don’t solve the reform of the political system, if we don’t solve the problem of unreliable legal protection, if we don’t solve the problem of enterprises unable to operate independently, and if we don’t solve the problem of corrupt officials seeking power and influence peddling, how can we solve the economic recession? Can economic problems be solved by attracting some foreign tourists? Can the problem of boiling public discontent be solved by deceiving a few fools who don't even care about their own wallets?

Therefore, the top priority in China is not to treat the head when there is a headache and treat the foot when there is a sore foot, but to grasp the essence of the problem and convene a political reform conference. The politics of one-party dictatorship seriously hinders economic operation and is the root cause of poverty and various problems such as deflation.

Some sensible people within the Chinese system have recognized the problem, but they have neither the means nor the courage to solve it. Everyone is only trying to protect themself, waiting for the day of collapse. Would not that result be worse than peaceful evolution or various coups?

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-12112023132240.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2023/WeiJS231209onChinaRoad.mp3

Related screenshot of Wei Jingsheng’s commentary on RFA website:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2023/newsletters2023-4/WeiJSonChinaRoad231211RFApage.jpg

(Written and recorded on December 9, 2023. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on December 11, 2023.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1624-W1183

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1624-W1183

Release Date: December 12, 2023

发布日：2023年12月12日

Topic: With Foreign Aid Out of the Question and Domestic Demand Deflating, Where Does the Road Lead in China? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：外援没戏，内需通缩，路在何方？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2023/report2023-12/WeiJS231212onChinaRoadA1624-W1183.htm

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外援没戏，内需通缩，路在何方？

-- 魏京生

前两天习近平召开了两个重要的会议，结果都没戏。中欧峰会本来想解决双方的经济政治分歧，结果互不相让，反而加大了分岐。习近平想通过缓和与西方发达国家的关系，来拯救中国经济的企图，再一次遭到了惨败。

政治上习近平暗中支持俄罗斯的战争，假中立的政策让欧洲人难以接受。这在政治上也就谈不通了。增加了的四千多亿的贸易逆差，让俄乌战争中的欧洲经济雪上加霜，也使得对方难以接受，并正在采取应对的措施。

在这同时，中国的经济也陷入了衰退。欧洲人削减贸易逆差的做法中国也不能接受。双方互不相让，谈崩了是在意料之中。美国谈不通，欧洲也谈不通，再次靠外贸输血挽救经济的幻想，终于破灭了。所以习近平也只能说什么内循环之类的废话，就像是走夜路吹口哨一样，自我安慰。

为什么说内循环是废话呢？大多数中国人民都越来越穷，习近平想增加内循环不就是废话吗。所有企业都受到官僚集团越来越多的干扰和限制，企业家们都在润出中国，资金外逃。没有钱了靠什么增加内需，增加内循环呢？无本之木，无源之水，巧妇难为无米之炊。习近平的话不是废话是什么？

最近获得经济学大奖的吴敬琏教授，是体制内的明白人。他也不得不壮着胆子发表言论，指出经济不振的根本原因就在政治。虽然话说得很委婉冗长，但结论是清楚的。不消除政治障碍，没有民主和法治的保障，经济就不可能正常运行，也解决不了目前的经济困境。

忽悠欧美富国失败，习近平又召开了中央政治局会议讨论经济。怎么解决困境总得有个章程吧。一如既往地没有章程，只有马屁精的废话，我们就不必重复了。摆在明面上的问题不解决，要求怎么怎么发展，怎么怎么前进，不又是一通废话吗？也难怪，即便你是习近平的亲信，也惶惶不可终日，多说多错，少说少错，不说不错。最保险的当然就是马屁精式的废话了。

废话治国，躺平治国，这个国家还有救吗？虽然百业凋敝，但还真有一枝独秀。那就是据说连公务员都发不出工资的当口，网格员还在增加编制。也就是专门在网上撒谎吹牛兼骂人的那批五毛，还要增加编制。这就是拯救经济的唯一措施，就靠骗了。

问题是大多数老百姓不懂经济，不懂政治，但懂得自家的钱包。周围的大资本、小资本都在外逃，穷人不着急吗？小中产们只是消费紧缩，那六亿穷人就会降到生存线以下。他们怎么过日子？靠画大饼真的还能继续骗下去吗？这些都是迫在眉睫的危机，是那些大量消费奢侈品的阶级很难理解的。

即将召开的什么经济工作会议，是驴唇不对马嘴。正像大家都知道的那样，不解决政治体制改革，不解决法律保障不可靠的问题，不解决企业不能自主经营的问题，不解决腐败官吏权力寻租的问题，拿什么解决经济衰退呢？靠招揽一些外国游客就能解决经济问题吗？靠欺骗少数连自己钱包也不关心的傻瓜，就能解决民怨沸腾的问题了吗？

所以当务之急不是头疼医头，脚疼医脚，而是抓住问题的实质，召开政治改革会议。一党专政的政治，严重阻碍着经济运行，是制造贫困和各种问题的根源，也是造成通缩等经济问题的根源。

中国体制内的一些明白人已经认识到了问题，但没有办法也没有胆量解决问题。大家都躺平自保，等待着崩溃的那一天。那个结果，会比和平演变或者各种政变更糟糕吗？

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来相关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

评论的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-12112023132240.html