Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1625-W1184

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1625-W1184

Release Date: December 18, 2023

发布日：2023年12月18日

Topic: Can Free Trade Still Fool People? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：自由贸易还能忽悠人吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Can Free Trade Still Fool People?

-- Wei Jingsheng

There are various Western economic theories, one of which is called free trade. The theory is that as long as there is free trade in the market economy of international trade, all aspects will be reasonable and optimal. The premise of this theory is wrong: human society is complex and rarely has an optimal state -- there is neither a standard market nor hundreds of millions of people with consistent standards. Therefore, economic policies in actual operations must be based on reality, that is, consistent with reality.

But in the past number of years, the idea of free trade suddenly became popular. What's the reason? Wages in developed countries are getting higher and higher, and the profits of capital have been compressed, thus companies look to find ways to increase profits. They found that it was a good way for some people to take advantage of the low wages in poor countries and earn excess profits in the markets of developed countries. How should they expand the scale of this kind of business and make it reasonable and legal? The theory of free trade fits well with this hope and can enable capital to expand at a high speed. So it was praised to level of the skies.

The two generations of Chinese Communist leaders, Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin, seized this opportunity and united with big Western capital to stage a big deception. As a result, they obtained a permanent free trade agreement with the United States and even joined the world free trade organization. Allowing big capital to freely utilize China's cheap labor was exchanged for economic transfusions from the West to China.

While capital and technology flowed into the unfree market of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), excess profits were divided in half. The big capitalists were making a lot of money, and the CCP's moneybags also made so much money to the degree that the CCP claimed “rising of the east and falling of the west” and admired itself as a powerful nation. Then, the rapid development of the CCP’s military power and its wolf warrior diplomacy first made people of insight in Western countries dissatisfied, and then made Western voters begin to doubt this free trade that led to their impoverishment and insecurity, which led to the decline of democracy around the world.

Recently, the President of the United States has publicly talked about the decline of democracy, and U.S. Trade Representative Ms. Katherine Tai also talked about the need for realistic trade policies and the necessity of tariff protection. American public opinion has finally seen the seriousness of the problem, and it is difficult to turn around. Therefore, the Xi Jinping clique’s wish to rely on Western blood transfusions to save the Chinese economy will definitely not work. Without political reform and without ensuring the normal operation of the domestic economy, it is impossible to save the economy in China.

Some recent phenomena are enough to illustrate the importance of political reform in China. The speed and amount of capital flight from China to overseas has reached an alarming level: not only foreign capital is fleeing, but Chinese capital is also fleeing, and China's economy is gradually being drained. The main reason for the flight of capital is the intensification of political oppression, such as the Espionage Act and the establishment of the CCP branches in the corporations that has increased the intensity of political interference with the economy.

In addition to pursuing profits as Karl Marx said, capital also pays attention to a safe operating environment. During the Jiang Zemin era, foreign capital enjoyed superior treatment in China, and security also enjoyed superior treatment over the average Chinese. Therefore, the profit-seeking nature of capitalists was brought into play with capital flowing into China in large quantities. After the relatively relaxed environment during the Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao eras, the current environment has become unbearable for some people. Driven by some smart people, the exodus is gradually accelerating.

Domestic business operations in China are also not optimistic. The overall trend is shrinking, not only production is shrinking, but consumption is also shrinking. That is what scholars often call deflation, which is not just deflation, but contraction overall. The next step would be the entire Chinese economy accelerating its decline. This really responds to Comrade Xi Jinping’s call that everyone should be prepared to live in a life of tight budgets.

To be fair, free trade is necessary within a country, and it mainly has positive meanings. This is a necessary policy to improve the market economy. But in countries with different political systems and widely varying economic levels, the results are very complicated. We cannot use idealized policies to generalize, otherwise the consequences will be unpredictable.

Now Western countries have realized the unrealistic nature of this theory. So it is definitely impossible to obtain additional blood transfusions by a big fooling of the others. The only way to save China is to reform the political system honestly.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-12182023093635.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2023/WeiJS231217onFreeTrade.mp3

Related screenshot of Wei Jingsheng’s commentary on RFA website:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2023/newsletters2023-4/WeiJSonFreeTrade231218RFApage.jpg

(Written and recorded on December 17, 2023. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on December 18, 2023.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1625-W1184

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1625-W1184

Release Date: December 18, 2023

发布日：2023年12月18日

Topic: Can Free Trade Still Fool People? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：自由贸易还能忽悠人吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2023/report2023-12/WeiJS231218onFreeTradeA1625-W1184.htm

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自由贸易还能忽悠人吗？

-- 魏京生

西方的经济理论五花八门，其中一派叫做自由贸易。其理论是在国际贸易的市场经济中只要自由贸易，就是各方面都合理，最佳状态。这个理论的假设前提就是错误的：人类社会纷繁复杂，很少有最佳状态 -- 既没有标准的市场，也没有亿万人一致的标准的人。所以实际操作中的经济政策必须按照实际来，也就是符合实际。

但是前些年自由贸易的说法突然甚嚣尘上。什么原因呢？就是发达国家的工资越来越高，资本的利润遭到了压缩，希望寻找增加利润的方法。于是大家发现某些利用穷国的低工资，在发达国家市场上赚取超额利润是一个好办法。如何扩大这种生意的规模，使之合理合法呢？自由贸易的理论很符合这个希望，可以使资本高速扩张。于是就被吹捧得天花乱坠了。

邓小平和江泽民那两代领导抓住了这个机会，联合西方大资本来了个大忽悠。因此得到了美国的永久自由贸易协议，还加入了那个世界自由贸易的组织。在允许大资本自由利用中国的廉价劳动力的同时，换取了西方对中国的经济输血。

资本和技术大量流入中共不自由的市场的同时，超额的利润对半分。大资本们赚得盆满钵满，中共的钱袋子们也赚得东升西降，厉害了我的国。其中中共军力的超速发展和战狼外交，首先让西方各国的有识之士们不满，进而让西方的选民们开始怀疑：正是这个自由贸易，导致了他们的贫困化和不安全，导致了全球民主的衰落。

最近美国总统公开谈论民主的衰落，美国贸易谈判代表戴琪女士也谈到了贸易政策要现实，关税保护是必要的。美国舆论终于看到了问题的严重性，很难再回头了。所以习近平集团希望重新依靠西方输血，来挽救中国经济，这条路肯定不通。不改革政治，不保障国内经济正常运行，不可能救得了经济。

最近的一些现象也足以说明中国政治改革的重要性。资本外逃的速度和额度都已经到了惊人的程度：不仅外国资本出走，中国的资本也在出走，中国的经济正在逐渐被抽空。而出走的原因，主要就是政治压迫的加重。例如间谍法和企业党支部等等政治操作，加大了政治干扰经济的力度。

资本除了马克思说的追逐利润之外，同样也注重安全的经营环境。江泽民时代外国资本在中国享受超国民待遇，安全也享受超国民待遇。所以资本家们追逐利润的本性得以发挥，资本大量流入中国。经过了江胡时代相对宽松的环境之后，现在的环境就使得一些人忍受不了了。外逃在一些聪明人的带动下，逐渐呈现加速的趋势。

国内的企业经营也很不乐观。整体呈现收缩的趋势，不仅生产收缩，消费也在收缩。也就是学者们常说的通缩，不仅是通货紧缩，而是统统收缩。下一步应该就是整个经济加速下滑。这真的应了习近平同志的号召，大家都要过紧日子了。

公平地说，自由贸易在一个国家范围内是必须的，主要有的是积极的意义。这是完善市场经济的必须政策。但在政治体制不同，经济水平千差万别的国际之间，其所导致的结果就太复杂了。不可以用理想化的政策来概括，否则后果难料。

现在的西方国家已经认识到这个理论的不现实。再想依靠大忽悠获得额外的输血，肯定不可能了。还是老老实实改革政治体制，才是救中国的必经之路。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来相关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

评论的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-12182023093635.html